TED CARLSON BLOG

I was just reading an article about Miles Austin on ESPN, and as seems to happen too often, I became incensed at a Jerry Jones quote. The Cowboys' owner/general manager seems to think that everyone on his team should be a superstar, and I'm sick of reading about it. Don't believe me? Here are some quotes:

(On Austin) "He's just got to get the ball more because of how well he does after he gets it in his hands. Covered or not, we need the ball in his hands."

(On Felix Jones, this week) "I'd sure like to see him with the ball more... We need to get him in situations outside, or where he has a little space, and we'll see some of that."

(On Tashard Choice, a month ago) "Tashard (has) certainly earned and going to get a big part of the load."

My question: Where is the love for Jason Witten and Marion Barber?

Witten is one of the NFL's elite tight ends, and he has only 438 yards and one score. He is averaging an embarrassing 8.9 yards-per-catch. Where is the "We need to figure out how to get Jason involved down the field and in the red zone" quote?

Barber has a $45 million contract, and he has carried the ball more than 15 times only once this season. I understand that quad and thumb injuries factor into his lower workload, but you don't give your top dog only five carries in a road game at Lambeau and then claim that Jones is the one who needs more love. That's crap.

While we're on the subject of the running game, can someone explain to me why the Cowboys currently rank 24th in the NFL with just 230 rushing attempts this season? They are one of seven NFL teams that averages better than 4.7 yards-per-carry, but they are the only one of those clubs who has attempted fewer than 250 runs. Meanwhile, Tony Romo is one of eight quarterbacks who has attempted more than 300 passes this season, but he is the only one whose completion percentage is below 62 percent. He is sitting at 60.4.

Anyway, I needed to blow off a little steam about this screwy team and their meddling owner. I'm a frustrated fantasy owners who has been counting on Witten and Barber on multiple teams, and it seems like Jones prefers to talk big about guys like Austin and Jones rather than stressing that the offense should be running through their Pro Bowl tight end and top back.

I was working Live Advice on Tuesday when the news of Dwayne Bowe's four-game suspension broke. It took only a few minutes for the first "Should I cut Bowe?" question to pop up. A little while later, the Chris Chambers queries started to appear.

Given that I was also handling numerous other lineup, trade, and other fantasy topics at the time, I wasn't fully prepared to start thinking about Chambers as the Chiefs' No. 1 receiver. Heck, I was still too upset with Bowe and angry that one of my fantasy teams suddenly went from title contender to, well, not such a scary opponent.

Now that I've had a little time to consider the situation, I'm urging fantasy owners to stay away Chambers, Lance Long, Mark Bradley, and Bobby Wade. I don't want any part of Matt Cassel, either. Jamaal Charles? Maybe in 14 or 16-team leagues.

The 2009 Oakland Raiders are arguably the worst offensive team I've ever seen. They are averaging 9.8 points and 222.0 total yards per game.

Who else is in that argument? The 2009 Browns. They are sitting at 8.7 points and 214.3 total yards per game. The Browns' offense has scored five touchdowns all year. Five. The Raiders hold a big lead at seven touchdowns.

Why do I bring up the Raiders and Browns in this discussion?

The Chiefs offense without Bowe may be just as bad as those two units. I'll take Cassel over JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn, but I'm not convinced that Chambers will have any more success than Zach Miller or Mohamed Massaquoi, the top receiving options on their respective clubs.

I'm not simply posting this because a few Owner's Edge users popped up to ask about Chambers. I'm also concerned because I've seen some of our rival fantasy sites promoting Chris. Ugh. The dude could barely get an inch of separation when with the Bolts. Are we to really believe he'll get open now that opposing defenses can focus a large part of their attention on him? Good luck with that.

What's the over/under on number of touchdowns the Chiefs score over the next four weeks? Two? 2.5? Three?

Yes, Cassel's passes previously directed to Bowe will now go to someone else, but that doesn't mean there is a good opportunity for fantasy owners here. I'm passing on all the Chiefs.

It was a tough weekend for running back injuries, and fantasy football owners are scrambling to figure out their waiver wire priorities. Who do I want to pick up? I'm sure some of my colleagues will disagree with my order, but here is my list:

1) Jason Snelling, Falcons
-He may split carries with Norwood, but right now, Snelling is better suited to handle a heavy workload and to take on the short-yardage and goal line looks.

2) Justin Forsett, Seahawks

-He could be a big Week 11 away from surpassing Julius Jones on the depth chart. The Seahawks worry about his size, but this is the same head coach and offensive coordinator who ably deployed Warrick Dunn in Atlanta.

3) Jerious Norwood, Falcons

-He has been out since Week 6, but I can't forget that he still owns a career 5.7 YPC average. We don't yet know how long Michael Turner may be out.

4) Bernard Scott, Bengals

-The Bengals aren't even ruling out Cedric Benson for Week 11, so Scott's upside seems to be limited to one week of action.

Those are the four running backs who will be available in the majority of fantasy leagues. If you are in an 8-team league, your priority may be Ricky Williams. If you are in a 10-team league, you could still find LeSean McCoy or Ladell Betts available. I'd prefer all three of those running backs over the four I separated out above.

With the MLB Hot Stove starting to heat up, the J.J. Hardy-for-Carlos Gomez swap has quickly fallen off the radar, and many baseball fans will probably forget it even happened once free agents starting coming off the board. I haven't had a chance to comment on the Twins-Brewers deal because I've been on the road and/or dealing with NFL news. However, as a Twin Cities native and a Twins fan, I have to chime in.

The short version: I love it.

I'll miss Go-Go Gomez from time to time. The speedy outfielder was fun to watch in the field and no player had a more infectious smile. And, honestly, how can you not love listening to Gomez talk?

But the fact is that Gomez can't hit the (bleeping) ball and the Twins probably would have sent him to Triple-A to open 2010. Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, and Delmon Young are all secure with outfield jobs, Jason Kubel can rotate in when not at DH, and maybe Jason Pridie will be ready to handle fifth-outfielder duties.

On paper, Hardy seems like a near-perfect fit for the Twins. He is an above-average fielder at shortstop and a right-handed bat who can fit in between Span and Joe Mauer. In 2009, the Twins received the following digits from their No. 2 hitters and shortstops:

No. 2: .262-16-94-100, .306 OBP, .394 SLG

SS: .263-10-82-87, .309 OBP, .374 SLG

The No. 2 hole needs some clarification. Mauer spent 33 games in that spot and batted .398-9-28-29 in those contests. You can figure out the production that the Twins received out of the two-hole in the other 130 contests.

Hardy hit an atrocious .227 with a .659 OPS in 2009, but nobody thinks this 27-year-old shortstop is truly that poor of a batsman. Most people don't think he'll ever repeat his excellent 2008 campaign, either. The truth is probably somewhere in between and somewhere around a .265-19-70-70 line with a .330 OBP and .450 SLG if he plays 145-150 games.

I'll take it. I like this trade more and more every time I look at it, and while the Twins' outfield defense will suffer, the lineup and infield defense upgrades will more than make up for Gomez's glove. And we have an in-his-prime shortstop securely cheaply for two more seasons. Excellent.

Are you wondering if you should start Matt Forte? Michael Crabtree? Devin Hester? Vernon Davis? Tonight, the NFL kicks off their string of seven weeks where at least one game occurs on a Thursday night. Fantasy owners need to make some lineup decisions slightly earlier in the week. If you are splitting hairs about a Thursday night participant, I have some advice.

Start the Thursday night guy.

I'm going with the numbers to support this advice.

2007 Thursday Games (Weeks 12-16)
Avg. Team Point Total: 25.5
Avg. Team Total Yards: 345.0

2007 Other Games (All Weeks)
Avg. Team Point Total: 21.6
Avg. Team Total Yards: 324.7

2008 Thursday Games (Weeks 10-16)
Avg. Team Point Total: 26.7
Avg. Team Total Yards: 356.0

2008 Other Games (All Weeks)
Avg. Team Point Total: 21.9
Avg. Team Total Yards: 326.2

Do offenses have an easier time preparing in a short work week? Do defenses have a tougher time recovering and getting ready in only four days?

I'm not sure there is a sound reason why offenses tend to perform better in Thursday games, but I'm running with it until the numbers show me a different (or no trend).

Again, I'm using these numbers to make the tough lineup decisions, to break the ties. I'm not going to start Earl Bennett over Reggie Wayne or Forte over Adrian Peterson.

Following another loss on Sunday, Jamal Lewis said he plans to retire after the 2009 season. Lewis turned 30 in August, but he has been running on fumes for years. His bruising style has caught up with him, as it does many NFL running backs.

Recent NFL running back news includes the Chiefs suspending Larry Johnson and the Seahawks releasing Edgerrin James. It's not known if LJ will see another carry this season, and it's a certainty that he won't be with the Chiefs in 2010. He turns 30 this month. Edge, 31, may be at the end of the line.

LaDainian Tomlinson, 30, is averaging 3.4 yards-per-carry, and his three-year contract calls for a $2 million roster bonus next March. Think he'll see that money?

Brian Westbrook, 30, is once again struggling to stay healthy, and the Eagles are clearly working on the transition to LeSean McCoy.

Clinton Portis, 28, may have a little juice left, but you wouldn't know it behind a terrible offensive line. He is dealing with bad ankles and other maladies, and he is closing in on 2,200 career carries and 10,000 career rushing yards.

When you take a step back and look at the RB landscape, you'll notice that it's a young man's game. That's not a new concept, but there are surprisingly few older backs who seem likely to carry a ton (say, top-25) of fantasy value into 2010. Thomas Jones is still running strong at 31. After that, I'd scroll all the way down to Ronnie Brown, who turns 28 this December. Maybe you can wedge Portis in there. But I don't envision LT, LJ or Westbrook being top-25 running backs heading into next season.

With the trend towards RBBC approaches, we also seem to be seeing a movement towards more young, fresh legs in the league. Or maybe it's just coincidence that there are a bunch of well-known running backs who happen to all be hitting the end of the line at about the same time.

No matter how you look at it, though, we're headed towards a 2010 season that should feature very few running backs who are even 28 years old.

We're through the first eight weeks of the NFL regular season (Falcons and Saints still to come), and most fantasy football leagues have eight more weeks to go. Since we're at the midway point, I'm ready to hand out some hardware. Here are the first-half fantasy MVPs, and for the record, the "value" part of the name factors in where the guy was drafted.

Quarterback
MVP: Aaron Rodgers
Runner-up: Matt Schaub

Notes: Unlike Brees and Peyton, these two quarterbacks didn't cost you a top-25 pick. Ben Roethlisberger comes in a close third.

Running Backs
MVP 1: Cedric Benson
MVP 2: Thomas Jones
Runner-up 1: Ray Rice
Runner-up 2: Ricky Williams

Notes: Yeah, AP and MJD are the top-two scorers in most leagues, but only two owners truly had a shot at drafting those two studs. Benson, Jones and Rice were all available in round four and beyond, and Williams was nothing more than a late-round flyer. Ricky isn't likely to keep it up, but he has been a top-10 scoring RB in a couple of my leagues.

Wide Receivers
MVP 1: Vincent Jackson
MVP 2: Steve Smith (NYG)
Runner-up 1: DeSean Jackson
Runner-up 2: Reggie Wayne

Notes: I know it cost you a second-round pick to get Wayne, but he needs to be on this list due to his amazing consistency over the opening seven games. On a total points basis, Miles Austin should make this list, but he has had just three monster outings and probably wasn't used by many owners in the first explosion.

Tight Ends
MVP: Vernon Davis
Runner-ups: Owen Daniels, Dallas Clark

Notes: The tough part about picking Davis is that, like Austin, there is a good chance he wasn't used in most leagues when he scored twice against the Vikings. I had a tough time choosing between Daniels and Clark, so I kept them both.

Kickers
MVP: Ryan Longwell
Runner-up: Nate Kaeding

Notes: Lawrence Tynes has the highest point total in the NFL, but Longwell has been more accurate and Kaeding has a higher per-game average.

The Eagles haven't ruled out Brian Westbrook for Week 8, but the overwhelming opinion is that the starting back will not play as he recovers from a scary concussion. Rookie LeSean McCoy will step into the starting lineup and presumably carry the load for the second time this season. It will be his first huge test. The Eagles host the rival Giants in a huge NFC East showdown.

What do we know about McCoy at this point? He has received a lot of hype as the Eagles' back of the future, but does he deserve it?

McCoy rushed 20 times for 84 yards and a touchdown in his previous start. That was a home game against a bad, rebuilding Chiefs club. The rookie is averaging only 3.6 yards-per-carry over 59 rushing attempts. He has yet to manage a run of longer than 15 yards. McCoy has caught 13 passes, one of which went for 19 yards.

By comparison, rookie Donald Brown has managed four plays of longer than 20 yards over his 53 touches. Shonn Greene ripped off three rushes of 20-plus yards just in Week 7. Beanie Wells has at least one 14-yard gain in four of the Cards' six games, despite his limited workload.

We know that pass protection isn't a strong suit for McCoy. He needs to step up this Sunday. The Giants own one of the league's best pass-rushing defenses. Left tackle Jason Peters has been nicked up. Right tackle Winston Justice probably still has nightmares about his first career start against the Giants. If Donovan McNabb is going to have any success this Sunday, McCoy, Leonard Weaver, and Brent Celek will need to help the offensive line.

It's unfair to ask McCoy to be Westbrook this Sunday. The rookie isn't a complete back yet. He has his deficiencies. But if McCoy truly is the team's starting running back of the future, this tilt against the Giants will be a huge, huge test. He needs to run hard. He needs to block well. He needs to protect the football. He needs to catch some passes.

If I'm a fantasy football owner holding him in a keeper league (I'm not, sadly), I'll be very interesting to see how McCoy grades out this Sunday.

On Tuesday, Colts president Bill Polian held his weekly Q&A session with the team's official web site, and this time, he received the question: "Has there been any thought to changing the running back rotation?" You can also hear Joseph Addai owners cringing and see Donald Brown owners preparing to jump for joy, but...

Answer: "Right now, there's no plan to change the rotation. We feel pretty good about it. We think it has been successful for us. Donald is a rookie. Traditionally, rookies wear down toward the end of the season, so we're trying to husband his carries as we did with Joseph when he was a rookie."

Bad news, right? Yes and no.

Polian's comparison of Brown's rookie plan to Addai's rookie season offers some hope. Back in 2006, Addai was the high-profile rookie who was pushing the less-exciting Dominic Rhodes for touches. Rhodes ended up starting all 16 games, but these were the month-by-month distribution numbers:

September
Rhodes: 44 rushes, 5 catches (49)
Addai: 26 rushes, 8 catches (34)

October
Rhodes: 51 rushes, 9 catches (60)
Addai: 61 rushes, 11 catches (72)

November
Rhodes: 42 rushes, 9 catches (51)
Addai: 68 rushes, 10 catches (78)

December
Rhodes: 50 rushes, 13 catches (63)
Addai: 71 rushes, 11 catches (82)

Postseason
Rhodes: 62 rushes, 7 catches (69)
Addai: 76 rushes, 10 catches (86)

Tony Dungy never really broke up the committee approach, but he clearly started to favor the rookie more and more as the season progressed.

Rhodes also scored three times over the opening four games in that season, but Addai went on to outscore Rhodes by a total of 8 to 5.

So, to all the Brown owners out there, try to stay patient.

On July 30, 2009, Carlos Ruiz went 0-for-4 against the Giants and saw his season average dip to .223. The 30-year-old backstop batted a measly .219 in 2008, and it was reasonable to wonder why the Phillies were putting up with him. Of course, they didn't have another good choice by that time.

One day earlier, the Phillies sent one of the league's best catcher prospects, Lou Marson, to Cleveland as part of the Cliff Lee package. Marson earned praise for his work when he made a short April appearance with the Phillies, and the then-22-year-old catcher seemed on the brink of supplanting Ruiz.

That change never came, and the Phillies have been rewarded for their faith in Ruiz. He batted .305-3-11 with a .951 OPS in August and followed up at .314-1-9 with a .900 OPS in September.

This postseason, Ruiz is 9-for-23 (.391) with a homer and seven RBI over eight games. He has walked six times and posted a 1.099 OPS.

"I think he's been more patient (at the plate)," manager Charlie Manuel told the AP. "He's been hitting the ball up the middle a lot and some to right-center. He's got better balance at the plate, and he's swinging better."

Backup Paul Bako took a different stance, telling the Delaware County Daily Times, "I just think it's not as much of a grind for him, every single day, to handle both sides of the plate… The season can get long and you're out there just about every single day, 100-plus games and it's not so easy sometimes to shine on both sides of the ball as he's done in the postseason."

Ruiz has always intrigued me a little bit. Like every fantasy baseball owner, I'm always looking for a cheap catcher who can provide a little offense. The No. 2 catcher spot is one of the toughest areas to fill on any baseball team. On the flip side, it doesn't take much to turn a backstop from a bum into a useful fantasy player.

In 2004, Ruiz hit .284-17-50 over 101 games at Double-A Reading. In 2006, Ruiz batted .307-16-69 over 100 games at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Granted, Ruiz was a little older (24 and 26) when playing at those levels, but I've always wondered why he didn't show a little better stick at the major league level.

Now, at 30 years old, Ruiz has turned it on over the last three months. He's no Joe Mauer or Brian McCann, but he has hit the ball consistently well enough to suggest he has the talent to produce a .275-12-55 campaign. In most seasons, my No. 2 catcher doesn't sniff those paltry numbers.

A few technical indicators from this past season ended up looking favorable for Ruiz. He walked more, he hit more line drives, he hit a lot more flyballs, and more of his flies ended up over the fence. But does any of this mean he will be a top-20 (or even top-25) catcher and help fantasy teams in 2010?

For an answer, I'll say this: Smarter men then me set the fantasy baseball projections for Owner's Edge. My job is to fight for changes, and if Ruiz keeps smoking the ball through this World Series, I'll be going to bat for him this winter.