TED CARLSON BLOG

Johnny Damon remains the biggest name on the free agent market, and it has become comical to listen to Scott Boras trying to sell the world on the outfielder's prospects. We know Damon will sign somewhere over the next couple weeks, and it's a pretty safe bet that the team who signs Johnny will hand him an every-day job. Still, fantasy owners might be starting to seriously worry about the veteran's value.

Don't panic - yet. It's easy to think delayed signing = MLB teams not sold on skills = Damon's fantasy value should fall. But that's not really the story here.

We're seen this dance before. A year ago at this time, veterans like Bobby Abreu, Orlando Cabrera, and Garret Anderson were still on the market. Abreu signed with the Angels on February 12. Anderson signed with the Braves on February 24. Cabrera signed with the A's on March 6.

All three of those veterans thought the market would be better for them, and it took the players a long time to accept their fates and accept lower, one-year deals. Damon is on the same path.

And, yes, part of the story is about fading skills, namely on defense. But Damon is no too different from Abreu or Cabrera. Nobody doubts that these guys can hit .280 in their sleep. They don't run or field as well as they used to, but they can swing the stick.

Abreu ended up being a bargain in 2009, as he hit .293-15-103-96-30 despite the late signing. Cabrera batted .282-9-77-83-13 - decent numbers for a MI option in mixed leagues. Anderson posted relatively poor digits with the Braves, but his lower offensive production would have been expected no matter where he signed.

The point being: Our projections haven't changed just because Damon hasn't signed yet. We'll make some adjustments once he chooses a team, but I still view him as a roughly .280-17-80-90-15 threat no matter what uniform he ultimately wears.

The hot topic of this post-Super Bowl Monday appears to be Peyton Manning's Legacy - his ranking among all the quarterbacks who have ever played the game. I've seen the question come up on ESPN, Yahoo, Twitter and other online outlets, and I'm sure the topic will be on radio stations across the country. Here are some of my thoughts.

1) Does the loss and the interception tarnish Manning's profile? Yes, it's part of the picture, but everyone needs to calm down and realize that Peyton's career is not over. That interception will not be the lasting, defining image of this All-World quarterback. People are trying to figure out where Peyton fits in the all-time rankings along greats like Joe Montana, John Elway, and Terry Bradshaw. But shouldn't we let Manning complete his career first?

1B) Manning is 9-9 in his career in the playoffs. You'll see that stat a lot today. It means very little to me. Elway was 7-7 until his final two seasons in the NFL, when the Broncos won two Super Bowls. Dan Marino was 8-10. Brett Favre is 4-6 over the last 12 seasons.

2) It's a team game. Peyton didn't lose the Super Bowl by himself. He also wasn't the only reason that the Colts reached the big game. I understand why many people point to championship rings as the ultimate determining factor of a player's legacy, but we all need to realize why that's a harsh stance to take in NFL circles.

Did Peyton miss a FG? Did he bumble the on-side kick? Was he responsible for the fact that the Saints scored on each of their last four drives (not including the kneel-down)? The Saints would have scored on six straight possessions if not for the Colts' goal line stand in the second quarter. The Colts could not stop the Saints.

If you need to understand the value of teammates, look no further than Drew Brees. The Saints quarterback has been one of the NFL's best quarterbacks for four seasons. Why was this past campaign any different? Why are people only now putting Brees in the same class as Manning?

The Saints opportunistic defense. Would Brees currently have a ring if the Saints defense hadn't battered Kurt Warner, caused a billion turnovers against the Vikings, and returned an interception for a touchdown last night? Why does Brees get credit for the Saints' defense making plays while Manning takes heat (and a hit to his legacy) because his teammates didn't do the same?

2B) Don't even get me started on people who use examples from other sports (e.g. Michael Jordan) to justify their stance on Manning as a choker or loser. Jordan, for example, had the opportunity to be on the court for all 48 minutes, fly solo on offense, play defense, and take over a game all by himself. You can't do that in the NFL. I've seen a Derek Jeter comparison, too, and I hate that one. Call me when the NFL allows the Colts to spend 2-5 times as much as any other franchise and surround Peyton with a full roster of All-Star.

3) Manning played pretty well. Peyton didn't play an outstanding game on Sunday night, but 31-of-45 for 333 yards is solid. The Colts offense pushed the ball into the Saints' territory on six of their eight drives - but a missed FG, an interception, and the final turnover-on-downs meant that the Colts scored only three times. We expect perfection out of Manning. He wasn't perfect. Does that mean we should rip him?

4) Don't listen to people ripping Manning (and his many teammates) for running to the locker room rather than shaking hands. The Super Bowl is not the same as every other regular season and playoff contest. I shouldn't need to explain all the reasons why this is a non-issue. The media apparently wants to make it a big deal.

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I realize I come off as a Manning apologist in this article, but it's only because I think too many people are ripping Peyton unnecessarily today. Yes, the Colts made the biggest mistakes in the Super Bowl, and Manning was a key part of the game-changing interception. But let's not call Sunday's loss the defining moment of his career. Manning has been too good for too long - including a previous Super Bowl win - for me to buy into what all the loud-mouthed sports media people seem to want to spout today.

For the record, I think Peyton is the best quarterback of the salary cap era, but I'm also prepared to wait until his career is over before I put my final stamp on his "legacy."

Marion Barber's fantasy stock has been slipping a little bit each day since the end of the Cowboy season, and Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News crushed the Barbarian on Wednesday, writing:

"Barber has been mediocre, at best, in the last two seasons… If Barber does not show rapid improvement, he could slip to the bottom of the pecking order at running back."

Fraley's assertion comes a little more than a week after Jerry Jones mentioned the possibility of lessening Barber's workload. The owner told Fraley:

"We have had an injury issue there at the end of each of the last two seasons. That may have something to do with the amount of time we can give the other backs. That could impact that decision. "

And judging by a brief scan of local commentary, it sounds like a lot of fans would be more than willing to trade Barber and open up the backfield for Felix Jones and Tashard Choice.

First of all, apparently Mr. Fraley and I use the word "mediocre" differently. Despite his injuries, Barber has carried the ball 452 times over the past two seasons and averaged 4.0 yards-per-carry. That is not outstanding, but MBII has been far from "mediocre." That adjective applies to guys who average 3.5 yards-per-carry or players who don't show enough to even get on the field.

Guess what? Over his last seven seasons with the Cowboys (1996-2002), Emmitt Smith averaged 4.0 yards-per-carry. How many times during those seven campaigns did the fans call for him to be traded?

I would agree that Barber has been merely average over the last couple seasons, but I can't agree with the apparent feeling that RBs capable of handling 200 carries and averaging four-plus yards-per-carry are nearly worthless.

Furthermore, I can understand the fervor over Felix Jones and the belief that he should see more touches in 2010. But do you know who has been holding Felix back over the last two years? Jones himself. If he was healthy in 2008 or 2009, he would have seen more than 146 combined rushing attempts. Jones showed a lot of promise over the second half of 2009 and into the playoffs, but he still has a huge hurdle in front of him. Can you tell me the last time Jones carried the ball at least 160 times in a season?

The owner also talks about getting Choice more involved in 2010, and, like Felix, Tashard has shown a lot of talent when asked to step up in 2008 and 2009. Unlike Jones, Choice carried a heavy workload in college, and he seems more likely to be able to handle a larger NFL share.

In theory, there is a lot to like about a potential Jones-Choice 1-2 punch, but I'm not sure why the Cowboys fans are so eager to make it happen in 2010. Having three quality backs - and, yes, Barber still fits that description - is a luxury, and the two younger guys carry cheaper contracts. Why not use all three again in 2010, reduce Barber's role as needed, keep the mileage off Jones and Choice, and then consider trading Marion next offseason?

Right now, the Barber bashing seems premature, and I would bet that at least two rivals (Eagles, Redskins) would love to get Marion for cheap right now.

I aim to update my 2010 fantasy football rankings every couple weeks this offseason, and my last entry came on January 19. Here is my latest top-50:

(Note: The lines to break up the monotony and to show round references for 12-team fantasy leagues.)

1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
2. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars
4. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
5. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons
6. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers
7. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers
8. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
9. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans
10. Drew Brees, QB, Saints
11. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals
12. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts

-------------------Round 1/2

13. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers
14. Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals
15. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
16. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs
17. Randy Moss, WR, Patriots
18. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
19. Roddy White, WR, Falcons
20. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
21. Matt Forte, RB, Bears
22. Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers
23. Marques Colston, WR, Saints
24. Ryan Grant, RB, Packers

-------------------Round 2/3

25. Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys
26. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos
27. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles
28. Brandon Marshall, WR, Broncos
29. Greg Jennings, WR, Packers
30. Shonn Greene, RB, Jets
31. Chris Wells, RB, Cardinals
32. Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers
33. Sidney Rice, WR, Vikings
34. Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins
35. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers
36. Tom Brady, QB, Patriots

-------------------Round 3/4

37. Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers
38. Joseph Addai, RB, Colts
39. Matt Schaub, QB, Texans
40. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers
41. Dallas Clark, TE, Colts
42. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers
43. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers
44. Chad Ochocinco, WR, Bengals
45. Steve Smith, WR, Giants
46. Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants
47. Thomas Jones, RB, Jets
48. Jerome Harrison, RB, Browns

-------------------Round 4/5

49. Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals
50. Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins

In: Greene, Harrison
Out: Pierre Thomas, LeSean McCoy
On Hold: Brett Favre (retire?), Wes Welker (ACL), LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook

Note 1: I'm sticking by my high ranking on DeAngelo even though a lot of experts have him outside their top-10. He was a stud over the first 10 games of 2009 (i.e. before injuries hit), and people seem to overlook the fact that Stewart underwent surgery on his Achilles tendon. The backup is obviously talented, but he has yet to show he can stay healthy.

Note 2: I've seen the light on Greene (thanks Rick), and I've taken a baby step towards accepting Harrison. I do still believe that T. Jones can and will be an effective back no matter what uniform he wears in 2010.

In the month of January, Kevin Durant and the Thunder played 15 games. The 21-year-old forward averaged 32.1 points and 19.7 field goal attempts. He shot 51.9 percent overall, 53.2 percent from three, and 89.8 percent at the line. Those are jaw-dropping numbers, and I'm not using hyperbole here.

It's days like these when I wish I had direct access to John Hollinger - or at least the guys who help him dig up stats. I've spent way too much of my afternoon trying to find any month by any player that rivals Durant's scoring efficiency in January.

My formula is simple: 32.1 points/19.7 FGA = 1.63 points/shot. And I looked for months where guys played at least 10 games and averaged a boatload of points.

It turns out that I aimed too high - LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, Dwyane Wade, Shaquille O'Neal - and ended up wasting a lot of time before finding a few answers.

For the entire 2006-07 season, Amare Stoudemire averaged 25.2 points on 15.3 shots - coming in at a cool 1.65 rate.

But even he can't hang with Charles Barkley. In 1987-88, Chuck came in at 28.3 points on 16.0 field goal attempts, good for a 1.77 mark. In March of 1988, Barkley averaged 2.08 points per field goal attempt over 15 games. Crazy.

In an effort to come up with a slightly more comparable player, I also found Reggie Miller and the 1989-90 season. In February (1.64) and April (1.66) of 1990, the 24-year-old Miller was brilliant. Heck, he was outstanding that entire season (51.4% FG, 41.4 3P%, 86.8 FT%, 24.6 PPG).

So, Durant didn't set some sort of shooting efficiency record in January, but my search through NBA history found that his last month was very, very, very impressive - especially considering his age.

The NFL revealed their 2000s All-Decade Team on Sunday, and the announcement led me to think about the fantasy version. Who makes my 13-man roster? Who would you pick?

QB: Peyton Manning, Colts
--Averaged 4,225 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 1.5 rushing touchdowns over the decade

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
--Nine straight seasons with double-digit touchdowns

RB: Shaun Alexander, Seahawks/Redskins
--Five straight seasons of at least 1,175 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns

WR: Marvin Harrison, Colts
--Seven straight seasons of at least 1,100 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns make up for poor finish to decade.

WR: Terrell Owens, 49ers/Eagles/Cowboys/Bills
--Close call with Randy Moss but T.O. averaged more catches, yards and TDs per game. Moss set a scoring record in 2007, but he also had the lost years in Oakland.

TE: Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs/Falcons
--Sorry, Mr. Gates, but I went with Gonzalez's 10-year run over your seven-season dominance.

K: David Akers, Eagles
--Strong arguments can be made for Ryan Longwell (20 hits from 50+), Jason Elam (consistency), and Matt Stover (87.1% on FG). Akers piled up the most total points. For the record, Adam Vinatieri was well behind in total points and made only five FG from 50 yards.

DEF/ST: Baltimore Ravens
--You can't go wrong with the Steelers, especially during the Antwaan Randle El years, but Ed Reed and the Ravens simply made more big plays (i.e. touchdowns).

BN: Brett Favre, Packers/Jets/Vikings
--Threw for 38,435 yards and 262 touchdowns in the decade. Favre is the easy pick even if his 176 interceptions hurt.

BN: Edgerrin James, Colts/Cardinals/Seahawks
--The decade doesn't include his brilliant rookie campaign and he had a lot of highs and a lot of lows, but it's tough to argue with 10,693 rushing yards, 2,778 receiving yards, and 74 touchdowns over the 10-year period.

BN: Tiki Barber, Giants
--The toughest call on the list. Priest Holmes was the fantasy king in 2002-04, but his stretch was short. Clinton Portis has had a mostly excellent eight-year career, but he has had some clunkers and doesn't catch many passes. From 2000-06, Barber rushed for 9,514 yards and caught 444 passes for 3,927 yards. The touchdowns (58) were a little short.

(Side note: If I was really setting up a squad to cover the decade, I could make a strong argument for a Holmes and Adrian Peterson bench. I'd start Holmes from 2001-04, let LT and Alexander cover the middle years, and turn to AP in recent times. But that's not really the spirit of this topic.)

BN: Randy Moss, Vikings/Raiders/Patriots
--11,739 receiving yards and 120 touchdowns in the decade despite down years in Oakland.

BN: Torry Holt, Rams/Jaguars
--Holt scored just 68 times, but his 868 catches and 12,594 yards led the NFL.

Ever since the middle of last season, I've been meaning to do some relief pitcher workload research. It's been way, way low on my priority list, as relievers usually don't get much love in fantasy leagues. Plus, the guys I really wanted to look at were the middle and setup men. I'll explain why.

If you play in an AL- or NL-only league, you know that middle men can be a key part of your pitching staff. Yes, starters and closers still carry the workload, but guys like Matt Thornton and Michael Wuertz can be very valuable. I play in an NL-only league, and I've been wondering how "safe" it will be for me to bank on setup men such as Luke Gregerson, Nick Masset, or Peter Moylan in 2010. So, I did some quick scanning of history.

How do you define a quality, useful reliever? That's up for debate, but I set some basic minimums for generating a list: 65 appearances, 3.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP. Those ratios aren't even that exciting for a reliever, but those parameters allowed me to trim the reliever lists down to these totals.

2009: 39
2008: 28
2007: 38
2006: 23
2005: 37
2004: 30
2003: 28
2002: 22
2001: 28
2000: 23

Considering how many relievers are employed in the majors, I was surprised those numbers weren't higher. After all, a 3.50 ERA and 1.35 WHIP aren't exactly outstanding. Maybe I should have cut down on the games pitcher requirement.

Anyway, there are many, many cases of relievers hitting these three marks in back-to-back seasons. What about three straight campaigns? That's a more exclusive group. Here are the guys who did it over the last decade:

2007-09: Joe Nathan, Jonathan Broxton
2006-08: Broxton, Russ Springer
2005-07: Billy Wagner, Bob Howry
2004-06: B.J. Ryan, Chad Cordero, Juan Rincon
2003-05: Nathan, Francisco Cordero, Luis Ayala, Tom Gordon
2002-04: Eric Gagne
2001-03: Tim Worrell
2000-02: Robb Nen, Mike Remlinger

Broxtron is the only reliever to reach 65 appearanaces and post a sub-3.50 ERA and sub-1.35 WHIP in four straight seasons during the 2000-2009 decade.

Nathan nearly has a streak of six straight campaigns… but he worked only 64 games in 2006.

Mariano Rivera nearly has a streak of seven straight seasons within those parameters, but he worked 64 games in 2003 and 2008 and 63 games in 2006.

Moving forward, I'll tweak my search parameters to knock down the games total and throw in strikeouts, since fantasy owners seem to like whiffs. Still, I thought these results were interesting enough to blog about, and they even further solidify my belief that Nathan, Broxton and Rivera should be the top three closers on fantasy lists.

It also causes me to believe that it's pretty darn hard to scan through the middle relievers and find reliable arms that you can draft in AL- and NL-only leagues. The chances are excellent that you'll end up dumping the non-closer that you drafted and grabbing whatever surprise setup man who has suddenly started dominating.

On Wednesday night, MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo unveiled his Top-50 Prospect List for 2010. Less than a day later, Keith Law of ESPN.com posted his Top-100 Prospect List. As one would expect, they generally agree on many youngster. However, there are a few differences that caught my attention.

Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers
Mayo: No. 12
Law: No. 54

The two sides agree that Escobar's glove is excellent, and the difference comes on offense. Mayo believes Escobar's speed could make him a very dangerous and productive leadoff hitter in the near future. Law agrees about the stolen bases, but he appears to have more doubts about Escobar's batting eye and consistency at the dish.

My take: This split is fairly representative of where fantasy experts are at right now. Some people see a guy who could bat leadoff and be a fantasy ROY candidate, while others are a little shy about predicting such success for a guy who doesn't have a ton of plate patience. I personally think Escobar is at least on par with Elvis Andrus, but I can get the Brewer for a much cheaper price in 2010. Escobar is not, I believe, a future fantasy superstar.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
Mayo: No. 8
Law: No. 35

Don't read Law wrong here: he doesn't think Alvarez is a slouch. But I do think it's interesting that there is a 27-spot gap. Everyone agrees that Alvarez's raw power is huge, and he profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat. The difference comes in the nit-picking. He has had some struggles vs. left-handed pitchers, and a poor glove could mean a near-future move to first base.

My take: Law's points about the glove and work vs. southpaws are valid, but fantasy owners only need to know that there is general agreement about Alvarez's bat. When he arrives in the majors, the homers are going to fly.

Yonder Alonso, 1B, Reds
Mayo: 30
Law: 76

I can practically reprint the Alvarez discussion here, although it's not quite the same. Alonso is a future middle-of-the-order hitter with good power and excellent plate patience. He doesn't have Alvarez's monster pop, but it's still solid. Alonso is only average at first and may need to move his slow feet to the outfield (Joey Votto). Plus, as Law notes, there have been some struggles vs. southpaws. A wrist injury cost Alonso half of the 2009 season, which also clouds the assessments a little.

My take: I think this one is pretty simple. Questions about his future position and the fact that he missed a bunch of time in his first full pro season make is easy for scouts to have slightly different feelings about Alonso. Nobody doubts that he has an above-average bat, though.

Drew Storen, RP, Nationals
Mayo: 40
Law: 92

My take: I'll skip the first part because Mayo and Law pretty much say the same things about Storen. Why the discrepancy? At the risk of assuming what Mr. Law is thinking - my guess is that he pushed Storen lower because he is a reliever. When evaluating how much of an impact a prospect will potentially have, you have to admit that a one-inning bullpen guy can't match an every-day player or a starting pitcher. The consensus is that Storen is pretty much ready for the majors and will be a closer in the near future - that's all fantasy owners really need to know.

Wil Myers, C, Royals
Mayo: 33
Law: NR

Yep, that's No. 33 in one and out of the top-100 in another. How does that happen? Myers was the 91st overall pick in the 2009 draft, which suggests a lot of MLB teams thought along the same lines as Law. He is relatively new to catching , is just 19 years old, and has only 84 minor league at-bats under his belt (40 as a DH). Myers hit .369 with a 1.106 OPS over that very brief span. Law has Myers as his No. 6 prospect for the Royals organization.

My take: I'm leaning a bit more towards Law. What can you really tell from 84 at-bats? Mayo loves Myers' bat and athleticism, but I find it hard to rank him ahead of guys like Chris Carter, Michael Taylor, Austin Jackson, and many others who've already shown the ability to hit in the upper levels of the minors. I'm assuming that Law wants to see more before moving the youngster up his rankings, and if so, I can't blame him. Clearly Myers is a youngster with a lot of raw tools, but fantasy owners should keep him down their lists until he puts in a full pro campaign.

New head coach? Check. New offensive coordinator? Check. New general manager? Check. Paul Allen and Tod Leiweke are turning the Seahawks into USC North by bringing in Pete Carroll and Jeremy Bates, and the new head coach/executive VP (Carroll) will have final say over John Schneider on personnel decisions.

Unless you're Eric Mangini, that hiring process and pecking order may seem a little backwards to you, but it's clear that the Seahawks are banking heavily on Carroll to right the ship. How can he turn around a team that has gone 5-11 and 4-12 in the last two seasons? Here are some ideas.

1) With the No. 6 Pick...
Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State. Yes, the Seahawks badly need OL help, but they have another pick coming up shortly. They should start by finding a playmaker on offense. Bryant definitely fits the bill. What about C.J. Spiller? A quarterback? I'll get to those positions later in this entry.

2) With the No. 14 Pick...
Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa. Previous regimes failed to notice that Walter Jones was getting old, and left tackle was a running joke for the Seahawks in 2009. They need to draft a new bookend at No. 6 or 14. That's not up for debate. New assistant head coach Alex Gibbs is one of the best OL coaches of all time, and I'm confident that he'll be able to identify a OT that he likes who will be available at this later first-round pick. Bulaga is a decent bet.

3) With the No. 40 Pick...
Colt McCoy, QB, Texas. His draft value is all over the board right now, and I've seen suggestions that McCoy will be a third-round pick. I'm skeptical about those low assessments and believe too many people are still dogging Colt for getting hurt in the title game. Carroll needs a young arm to groom behind Matt Hasselbeck, and McCoy is a leader and a winner.

4) Bring in LenDale, Dahl, Pickett
It's going to be a strange free agency season given the lack of a CBA, but I believe the Seahawks need to do some serious work. LenDale White would jump at the chance to reunite with Carroll, and the Titans might not match a big deal offered to the RFA running back. White and Justin Forsett could be a decent pairing for 2010. Add some nasty to the interior of the line by grabbing another RFA, right guard Harvey Dahl. The Falcons may let Dahl walk and choose to pay Tyson Clabo instead. Third, make an aggressive move for DT Ryan Pickett if the Packers don't sign him to an extension. The Seahawks need to begin their defensive rebuilding by starting at the heart. Pickett would be an excellent addition.

5) Get More Picks
I realize that this plan is easier written than achieved, but Carroll and Company need to figure out how to stockpile as many draft picks as possible. Those two first-round selections are a great starter, but they currently don't have a third-round selection or any additional picks after the opening round. I'm assuming that Carroll has fairly extensive knowledge of the current draft class, and it's no secret that the Seahawks need to do a lot of rebuilding. Why not give Carroll as many shots as possible to grab guys he has coached, scouted, and played against in recent seasons?

I would be all for the Seahawks trading away some current, aging talent in an effort to land a few more mid-round selections. Heck, given my offense-first approach above, they'll need a lot of picks to help fill the many holes on defense. I'd need 6, 7 and 8 points to address all the problems on that side of the ball.

All sports analysts - fantasy or otherwise - like to sling around the word "potential," and it is usually a given that they are using it in a positive way. And when we think of "potential" in fantasy baseball circles, we usually focus on the high upside guys, e.g. Matt Wieters, Clayton Kershaw, Andrew McCutchen. In doing so, we often neglect established players who have more to offer than previously seen. In this post, I'm looking at six guys who have more upside than most people seem to believe or recognize.

1) Brian McCann, C, Braves

Why we neglect: Four full seasons of steady production (around .290-20-90), four All-Star appearances

What we forget: He turns 26 on February 20, 2010

What I see: McCann already has plenty of respect in the fantasy community, but I don't necessarily agree with the "you know what you're going to get" mentality. You could get more. McCann began to assert himself as more of an offensive force over the second half of 2009, when his eyes were clear and he grew more accustomed to the No. 4 spot in the order. He batted just .264 after the All-Star break, but he also added 13 homers, 57 RBI, and 36 runs over 69 games. McCann is just at the beginning of what could be his prime years, and I believe he could have multiple .300-25-100-75 seasons in his future. as an "oh, by the way" reference, Ivan Rodriguez slugged better than .510 in five difference seasons - all between the ages of 26 and 30. Mike Piazza's six biggest power seasons (in terms of SLG) came when he was 26, 28, 29, 30, 31 and 32.

2) Justin Morneau, 1B, Twins

Why we neglect: 2006 AL MVP, three All-Star games

What we forget: He will be 28 on Opening Day 2010. He was hitting .311-21-70-59 at the 2009 All-Star break. The other .300-20-60-55 players at the time: Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Chase Utley.

What I see: Prior to 2009, Morneau was able to play through nagging injuries, but a back issue finally caught up with him late last season. He also needed right wrist surgery after the season. Even when "healthy" in previous seasons, though, Morneau has a habit of falling apart in August and September. He is a career .250 hitter with a .770 OPS in August and a .250 hitter with a .736 OPS in September. Even in his 2006 MVP season, Morneau swatted just two homers over his last 36 games. And therein lies the hidden potential. It's possible that Justin will never make it through a full season without wearing down or battling tough ailments, but what if he does? The closest answer to that question is 2006: .321-34-130-97. I have no doubt that Morneau has at least that much upside in 2010, and there is even more potential here. Just remember: the guy in front of him (Joe Mauer) is a machine and the players behind him (Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel) really started to assert themselves in 2009.

3) Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, Athletics

Why we neglect: Three straight years of boring but useful lines (around .260-20-80), bad batting eye, poor OBP

What we forget: He has spent half of his career at PETCO Park, where he hit .239 with a .684 OPS.

What I see: Oakland Coliseum isn't terribly kind to hitters, but anything is better than PETCO Park. Over his career, Kouz has batted .284-37-151 with a .805 OPS over 888 at-bats on the road. If we parse that down to a full season (550 at-bats), we're looking at a .284-23-94 line. Not bad, huh? Kouzmanoff is only 28 years old, and his minor league carer (349 games) saw him hit .332 with a .951 OPS. It would be wrong to think he doesn't have the skills to hit for a higher average and more power than he showed in San Diego. Yes, he hacks at too many pitches, but we can say the same about Mark Reynolds, Matt Kemp, B.J. Upton, Aaron Hill, and many other guys that fantasy owners don't mind drafting. I'm not here to suggest that Kouz should be a top-10 third baseman right now or will be by the end of 2010, but I could argue that he has just as much - if not more - potential than guys like Casey Blake and Adrian Beltre, who are going much earlier in drafts.

4) Nick Markakis, OF, Orioles

Why we neglect: Three seasons of similar production, down year in 2009

What we forget: He turned 26 in November, 2009 lineup was young

What I see: Markakis maintains a high ADP ranking, but pretty much everything I read about him focuses on the negatives and on everything that went wrong in 2009. His average was down. His power was down. His steals were down. Hit batting eye was worse. Calm down, people. Aubrey Huff had a terrible season, Melvin Mora was awful, and Matt Wieters and Nolan Reimold were just getting their feet wet. And, when you dig into the 2009 numbers, you'll notice that many people are really just chastising Markakis for one bad month - he hit .182-1-7 from August 30 through September 30. If he hits .263 with a bit more power during that time, his final line could have easily been pumped up to .305-20-106-100. But my general worry here is that too many experts are raising too many red flags (or yawns) about a sweet hitter who is about to enter his prime. Wieters, Reimold, and Adam Jones are also on the upswing, Brian Roberts is one of the league's steadiest producers, and Miguel Tejada and Garrett Atkins are sure to be upgrades (to some degree) over Mora and Huff. When the Orioles make a run at 800 runs in 2010, guess who will be right in the heart of the action?

5) Scott Kazmir, SP, Angels

Why we neglect: Fewer than 155 innings in three of the last four years, injuries, poor 2009

What we forget: He turned 26 on Sunday, 3.27 ERA and 1.15 WHIP after the All-Star break in 2009

What I see: Did everyone expect Kazmir to simply keep getting better and better? He showed hugh potential in 2005-06 and hit a high note in 2007. In 2008, Kazmir had some elbow and mechanical problems, and he battled quad and forearm problems over the first half of 2009. No, he hasn't filled his promise of becoming a true ace, but I get the sense that people think Kazmir is one step away from being Oliver Perez. Please. My colleague, Kyle Elfrink, already did a nice job of providing a positive Kazmir outlook for 2010, and I believe this lefty has even more potential than Kyle mentioned. Injuries and control problems are concerns, but Kazmir is currently one of my favorite 2010 bargains.

6) Chad Qualls, RP, Diamondbacks

Why we neglect: Left knee injury, hasn't made it through a full season as a closer, 3.63 ERA, 24 saves

What we forget: The D'Backs were terrible in 2009, Qualls held a 6.43 K/BB and 57% GB rate

What I see: Qualls still needs to prove that he is fully recovered from his ugly left knee injury, but it's amazing to me that his ADP ranking is currently closer to No. 30 than No. 20 among closers. It's not his fault that he saw only 29 save chances over five months in 2009. Why will he see more chances in 2010? (1) Brandon Webb, Edwin Jackson, Adam LaRoche, Conor Jackson, and Kelly Johnson. I don't believe that the D'Backs will remain a 70-win team. (2) Qualls worked at least 77 games in 2005-08. History suggests health shouldn't be a problem. As far as his stuff goes, no reliever matched Qualls's K/BB mark form 2009 and few boast a better ground ball rate. A forearm issue caused his ERA to jump a little bit, but I expect his 2010 ERA to be more in line with his 2007 (3.05) and 2008 (2.81) marks. His steady skill set also suggests a 1.15-1.20 WHIP and 65-70 strikeouts are reasonable projections. If I made a top-15 closer list for 2010 right now, he'd be on it.