RICK HAWES BLOG
2010 NFL Draft: Day 2 Prospects
by Rick Hawes
Posted 4/23/2010 4:27 PM
Earlier today, I composed an article providing my thoughts on the first round of the 2010 NFL draft. To view that article click here. Heading into the second day of the draft, here are some quick snapshots of some of the players who could fall off the board in the second and third rounds.
Quarterbacks
Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame - After three years in a pro-style offense, Clausen is considered the most NFL-ready QB in the class.
Colt McCoy, Texas - McCoy is an excellent athlete with a high football IQ, but lacks arm strength and accuracy on deep throws.
Running Backs
Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech - There are questions about his ability to adjust to a pro-style offense, but he's a punishing downhill runner.
Toby Gerhart, Stanford - Gerhart raised his stock at the Combine, running a 4.53 40-yard dash and posting a 38-inch vertical jump.
Dexter McCluster, Mississippi - At 5-foot-8 and 172 pounds, McCluster is undersized and could struggle to find a position in the NFL.
Montario Hardesty, Tennessee - Hardesty combines excellent size with good speed but had durability issues throughout his college career.
Joe McKnight, USC - Solid all-around back with great acceleration, but never had more than 20 carries in a game at USC.
Wide Receivers
Golden Tate, Notre Dame - Won the Biletnikoff Award in 2009 and runs the complete route tree after competing in a pro-style offense.
Arrelious Benn, Illinois - Benn is known for having solid hands and running fluid routes, but only posted average production in college.
Damian Williams, USC - Williams is an accomplished route runner with a high football IQ, and can also contribute as a return man.
Brandon LaFell, LSU - LaFell is a complete receiver who makes the tough catches in traffic and in the red zone (19 TDs last two years).
Mardy Gilyard, Cincinnati - Outstanding playmaker as a receiver and return man, and was very productive in his junior and senior seasons.
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski, Arizona - At 6-foot-6 and 265 pounds, Gronkowski combines a rare combination of size, hands and route-running skills.
Aaron Hernandez, Florida - John Mackey award winner as the nation's top tight end in 2009, but lacks prototypical size at the next level.
Anthony McCoy, USC - McCoy was a two-year starter at USC, competing in a pro-style offense but he was in inconsistent producer.
Offensive Linemen
Bruce Campbell, Maryland, OT - Campbell raised his stock at the Combine, running a 4.85 40-yard dash and performing well in the drills.
Rodger Saffold, Indiana, OT - Saffold was a four-year starter, allowing only one sack as a senior and shined at the East-West shrine practices.
Charles Brown, USC, OT - Brown is a converted tight end who is still making the transition to offensive tackle and needs to bulk up.
Vladimir Ducasse, Massachusetts, OG - Though he started for three years, Ducasse is considered raw with a nasty demeanor and great work ethic.
Jon Asamoah, Illinois, OG - Asamoah is a good athlete, who is well versed in pass protection as well as an outstanding run blocker in space.
Defensive Linemen
Brian Price, UCLA, DT - Started as a true freshman and claimed Pac-10 defensive player of the year honors during his junior season.
Terrence Cody, Alabama, DT - At 6-foot-3 and 360 pounds, Cody is a prototype two-gap nose tackle, who is a perfect fit in a 30 front.
Everson Griffen, USC, DE - Griffen has limited experience as a starter (one year); however, he's a good athlete with a quick first step.
Carlos Dunlap, Florida, DE - At 6-foot-6 and 285 pounds, Dunlap is quick off the snap, but has an inconsistent motor and carries character baggage.
Ricky Sapp, Clemson, DE - At 6-foot-3 and 252 pounds, Sapp could transition to outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme at the professional level.
Lamarr Houston, Texas, DT - Houston ran a 4.85 40-yard dash at the Combine and posted an incredible 22 tackles for loss during his senior year.
Arthur Jones, Syracuse, DT - Jones was a three-year starter who combines a high motor with the ability to dominate at the point of attack.
Corey Wootton, Northwestern, DE - Wootton was a four-year starter at Northwestern, and is versatile enough to play end in a 4-3 scheme or 30 front.
Linebackers
Sergio Kindle, Texas - Kindle has an explosive first step and is versatile, having started at defensive end and outside linebacker at Texas.
Daryl Washington, TCU - Washington, who is a sound tackler with sideline-to-sideline range, projects as a weak-side linebacker in the NFL.
Brandon Spikes, Florida - Spikes is sound in run support and pass coverage, combining excellent instincts and leadership skills on the field.
Sean Lee, Penn State - Lee has had some durability issues and is not a great athlete, but he's a leader capable of quarterbacking a defense.
Eric Norwood, South Carolina - At 6-foot-1 and 245 pounds, Norwood is undersized but he has a great motor, is durable, and extremely productive.
Navorro Bowman, Penn State - Bowman has solid instincts and is a good tackler with coverage skills, but character concerns cloud his draft status.
Thaddeus Gibson, Ohio State - Gibson performed well at the Combine, displaying quick change of direction and the ability to drop back in coverage.
Koa Misi, Utah - Misi, who was a three-year starter for the Utes, is a versatile athlete who lined up at end, tackle and linebacker.
Defensive Backs
Perrish Cox, Oklahoma State, CB - Cox is a large cornerback who is physical in coverage and an excellent returner, but carries character concerns.
Dominique Franks, Oklahoma, CB - Franks combines good size, fluid hips and solid ball skills with the ability to contribute on special teams as a returner.
Brandon Ghee, Wake Forest, CB - At 6-foot-0 and 190 pounds, Ghee has good size, fluid hips, and isn't afraid to get his jersey dirty in run support.
Amari Spievey, Iowa, CB - Spievey, who created a buzz at the Combine, only had six career INTs, but teams tended to avoid his side of the field.
Taylor Mays, USC, S - At 6-foot-3 and 230 pounds, Mays offers a rare combination of size and speed, but can be a liability in coverage.
Nate Allen, South Florida, S - Allen possesses excellent intangibles and ball skills, as well as the leadership skills to be a coach on the field.
Chad Jones, LSU, S - Jones only had 19 career starts, but he's a good athlete who won national championships in football and baseball.
Quarterbacks
Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame - After three years in a pro-style offense, Clausen is considered the most NFL-ready QB in the class.
Colt McCoy, Texas - McCoy is an excellent athlete with a high football IQ, but lacks arm strength and accuracy on deep throws.
Running Backs
Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech - There are questions about his ability to adjust to a pro-style offense, but he's a punishing downhill runner.
Toby Gerhart, Stanford - Gerhart raised his stock at the Combine, running a 4.53 40-yard dash and posting a 38-inch vertical jump.
Dexter McCluster, Mississippi - At 5-foot-8 and 172 pounds, McCluster is undersized and could struggle to find a position in the NFL.
Montario Hardesty, Tennessee - Hardesty combines excellent size with good speed but had durability issues throughout his college career.
Joe McKnight, USC - Solid all-around back with great acceleration, but never had more than 20 carries in a game at USC.
Wide Receivers
Golden Tate, Notre Dame - Won the Biletnikoff Award in 2009 and runs the complete route tree after competing in a pro-style offense.
Arrelious Benn, Illinois - Benn is known for having solid hands and running fluid routes, but only posted average production in college.
Damian Williams, USC - Williams is an accomplished route runner with a high football IQ, and can also contribute as a return man.
Brandon LaFell, LSU - LaFell is a complete receiver who makes the tough catches in traffic and in the red zone (19 TDs last two years).
Mardy Gilyard, Cincinnati - Outstanding playmaker as a receiver and return man, and was very productive in his junior and senior seasons.
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski, Arizona - At 6-foot-6 and 265 pounds, Gronkowski combines a rare combination of size, hands and route-running skills.
Aaron Hernandez, Florida - John Mackey award winner as the nation's top tight end in 2009, but lacks prototypical size at the next level.
Anthony McCoy, USC - McCoy was a two-year starter at USC, competing in a pro-style offense but he was in inconsistent producer.
Offensive Linemen
Bruce Campbell, Maryland, OT - Campbell raised his stock at the Combine, running a 4.85 40-yard dash and performing well in the drills.
Rodger Saffold, Indiana, OT - Saffold was a four-year starter, allowing only one sack as a senior and shined at the East-West shrine practices.
Charles Brown, USC, OT - Brown is a converted tight end who is still making the transition to offensive tackle and needs to bulk up.
Vladimir Ducasse, Massachusetts, OG - Though he started for three years, Ducasse is considered raw with a nasty demeanor and great work ethic.
Jon Asamoah, Illinois, OG - Asamoah is a good athlete, who is well versed in pass protection as well as an outstanding run blocker in space.
Defensive Linemen
Brian Price, UCLA, DT - Started as a true freshman and claimed Pac-10 defensive player of the year honors during his junior season.
Terrence Cody, Alabama, DT - At 6-foot-3 and 360 pounds, Cody is a prototype two-gap nose tackle, who is a perfect fit in a 30 front.
Everson Griffen, USC, DE - Griffen has limited experience as a starter (one year); however, he's a good athlete with a quick first step.
Carlos Dunlap, Florida, DE - At 6-foot-6 and 285 pounds, Dunlap is quick off the snap, but has an inconsistent motor and carries character baggage.
Ricky Sapp, Clemson, DE - At 6-foot-3 and 252 pounds, Sapp could transition to outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme at the professional level.
Lamarr Houston, Texas, DT - Houston ran a 4.85 40-yard dash at the Combine and posted an incredible 22 tackles for loss during his senior year.
Arthur Jones, Syracuse, DT - Jones was a three-year starter who combines a high motor with the ability to dominate at the point of attack.
Corey Wootton, Northwestern, DE - Wootton was a four-year starter at Northwestern, and is versatile enough to play end in a 4-3 scheme or 30 front.
Linebackers
Sergio Kindle, Texas - Kindle has an explosive first step and is versatile, having started at defensive end and outside linebacker at Texas.
Daryl Washington, TCU - Washington, who is a sound tackler with sideline-to-sideline range, projects as a weak-side linebacker in the NFL.
Brandon Spikes, Florida - Spikes is sound in run support and pass coverage, combining excellent instincts and leadership skills on the field.
Sean Lee, Penn State - Lee has had some durability issues and is not a great athlete, but he's a leader capable of quarterbacking a defense.
Eric Norwood, South Carolina - At 6-foot-1 and 245 pounds, Norwood is undersized but he has a great motor, is durable, and extremely productive.
Navorro Bowman, Penn State - Bowman has solid instincts and is a good tackler with coverage skills, but character concerns cloud his draft status.
Thaddeus Gibson, Ohio State - Gibson performed well at the Combine, displaying quick change of direction and the ability to drop back in coverage.
Koa Misi, Utah - Misi, who was a three-year starter for the Utes, is a versatile athlete who lined up at end, tackle and linebacker.
Defensive Backs
Perrish Cox, Oklahoma State, CB - Cox is a large cornerback who is physical in coverage and an excellent returner, but carries character concerns.
Dominique Franks, Oklahoma, CB - Franks combines good size, fluid hips and solid ball skills with the ability to contribute on special teams as a returner.
Brandon Ghee, Wake Forest, CB - At 6-foot-0 and 190 pounds, Ghee has good size, fluid hips, and isn't afraid to get his jersey dirty in run support.
Amari Spievey, Iowa, CB - Spievey, who created a buzz at the Combine, only had six career INTs, but teams tended to avoid his side of the field.
Taylor Mays, USC, S - At 6-foot-3 and 230 pounds, Mays offers a rare combination of size and speed, but can be a liability in coverage.
Nate Allen, South Florida, S - Allen possesses excellent intangibles and ball skills, as well as the leadership skills to be a coach on the field.
Chad Jones, LSU, S - Jones only had 19 career starts, but he's a good athlete who won national championships in football and baseball.
Another Mock Draft
by Rick Hawes
Posted 4/15/2010 10:14 AM
The 2010 NFL draft is seven days, eight hours and 45 minutes away, and draftniks nationwide are anxiously awaiting the selection of shiny new toys. Since everyone and their brother are creating these mocks these days, I figured I would give it a shot. I will warn you beforehand that I don't have Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen going in the first round, as I just couldn't find a good fit for him. Buffalo could snag him at No. 9, but I think they have a bigger need at offensive tackle. On the flip side, I know some team will likely pull the trigger, but I think the Golden Domer is facing a free fall.
1. St Louis Rams - Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
- After signing a six-year, $65 million pact prior to the 2006 season, Marc Bulger missed 12 starts due to injuries, throwing 27 touchdowns against 34 picks. His play regressed to the point where it would've been unfair to trot him out as the starter in 2010, and the organization cut ties during the offseason. Throw in the facts that the NFL is a quarterback driven league and the Rams are 6-42 over the last three years… and this team needs a field general in a bad way.
2. Detroit Lions - Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
- In 2009, the Lions ranked 25th in run defense, allowing 126.6 yards per game, 4.4 yards per carry and 18 rushing touchdowns. Back in March, they traded for defensive tackle Corey Williams, who will help bolster the interior line. But there's no way Detroit can pass on "House of Spears," who is considered the best player in the draft and one of the top defensive tackle prospects of the past decade.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
- Last year, the Buccaneers finished dead last in run defense, allowing 158.4 yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. The interior line desperately needs one-gap penetrator who is also stout against the run. This description fits McCoy perfectly, as he has been compared to Warren Sapp, a seven-time Pro Bowler who played in Tampa from 1995-2003.
4. Washington Redskins - Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
- New head coach Mike Shanahan secured his franchise quarterback, giving up the 37th overall pick in the 2010 draft and a conditional 2011 fourth rounder to the Eagles for Donovan McNabb. On the flip side, the Redskins offensive line allowed 46 sacks in '09, which was the fourth highest total in the league. Left tackle Chris Samuels recently retired and right tackle Stephon Heyer allowed nine sacks last year, so the new regime needs to address a shoddy O-line.
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
- The offensive line surrendered 45 sacks last year, which was the sixth most in the NFL. Left tackle Branden Albert, who was responsible for nine of the sacks, regressed during his second season. The organization will likely select a tackle in this spot, and could move Albert to right tackle, with the hopes of solidifying two spots in the trenches. Regardless of how it plays out, Pioli needs to upgrade an O-line currently filled with only serviceable talent.
6. Seattle Seahawks - Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
- Nine-time Pro Bowl left tackle Walter Jones missed the entire 2009 season with a knee injury and is on the fence in regards to retirement. Sean Locklear filled in admirably for Jones last year, but he missed six starts due to an ankle injury and has major durability issues. Finding a solid left tackle should be priority one for new head coach Pete Carroll, especially after moving down in the second round to acquire quarterback Charlie Whitehurst from the Chargers.
7. Cleveland Browns - Joe Haden, CB, Florida
- Eric Wright has developed into a solid cornerback with 27 passes defended and seven interceptions over the last two seasons. On the opposite side, Brandon McDonald regressed last year and was benched in favor of backup free safety Michael Adams three different times during the campaign. The Browns ranked 29th in the league against the pass, allowing 244.7 yards per game and the lack of depth on the roster makes this a position of major need.
8. Oakland Raiders - Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
= The offensive line surrendered 49 sacks and the rushing offense fell to 21st, averaging only 106.7 yards per game. Left tackle Mario Henderson regressed in his third season, allowing 9.5 sacks and faded down the stretch in both run support and pass protection. Right tackle Cornell Green, an unrestricted free agent, signed with the Bills leaving this unit in need of reinforcements. Also, owner Al Davis is known for reaching for "workout warriors" and Campbell arguably had the best overall performance amongst offensive linemen at the Combine.
9. Buffalo Bills - Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
- Prior to the 2009 season, Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peterson was traded to Philadelphia, and right tackle Langston Walker was named his replacement. Walker was released a week before the season started and the Bills used four different players to try and fill the premium position. The offensive line allowed 46 sacks and the Bills ranked 30th in total yards, 30th in passing yards, 32nd in third down conversion success and 28th in points scored.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars - Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
- To be totally blunt, this area of the roster contains a variety of rag-tag players. The secondary could actually use an infusion of talent at both strong and free safety, but the biggest need is the latter, as Reggie Nelson might have played himself out of town last year. Sean Considine looks the part from an athletic standpoint, but he always seems to be nicked. At the end of the day, the Jags need help in all three levels of the defense, but I can't let Berry fall any further in this mock.
11. Denver Broncos - Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
Brandon Marshall clashed with the coaching staff last year, and was traded to the Miami Dolphins for a 2010 second round pick and 2011 second round pick. This transaction leaves a major void on the wide receiver depth chart, and regardless of the reported off-field concerns, Bryant is the only blue-chip receiver prospect in this class.
12. Miami Dolphins - Earl Thomas, S, Texas
- The Dolphins have needs at outside linebacker and defensive tackle, but Thomas is the highest rated player left on the board in this spot. The team released free safety Gibril Wilson following the 2009 season, and Thomas combines excellent speed, range and coverage abilities.
13. San Francisco 49ers - C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
- Frank Gore, 26, has missed five games due to nagging injuries over the last three campaigns, and coach Mike Singletary would like to lighten his workload to extend his career. Glen Coffee shined in the 2009 preseason averaging 5.9 yards on 42 carries, but was disappointing in the regular season, averaging 2.7 yards on 83 rushing attempts. The team needs to add a change-of-pace running back capable of making some splash plays, and Spiller can also assist in the return game.
14. Seattle Seahawks - Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
- The Seahawks only posted 28 sacks last season, ranking 26th in this category. The lack of a pass rush resulted in opposing quarterbacks completing 65.8 percent of their passes with 27 touchdowns. Darryl Tapp has been traded to Philadelphia and Patrick Kerney recently retired, making this a position of major need and Morgan is considered the most pro-ready defensive end in this class.
15. New York Giants - Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
- Antonio Pierce missed seven starts after being placed on injured-reserve with a bulging disc in his neck. The nine-year veteran was due to make $4.75 million in 2010, but was released due to questions about his health. Pierce was the quarterback of the defense, so this leaves a huge leadership void. The primary backup, Jonathan Goff, started four games down the stretch, but is a one-dimensional thumper who lacks instincts for the position.
16. Tennessee Titans - Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida
- Veteran Kyle Vanden Bosch walked in free agency to Motown. William Hayes and Jacob Ford combined for 9.5 sacks last year and are promising youngsters, but the defense needs an explosive edge-rusher that can get after the quarterback. Pierre-Paul is RAW but his upside is off the charts.
17. San Francisco 49ers - Mike Iupati, G, Idaho
- Left tackle Joe Staley sprained the MCL and ACL in his left knee, causing him to miss seven games during the second half of last season. He signed a six-year extension prior to 2009 and is a very solid option when healthy. On the right side, Adam Snyder is below average, allowing 25.5 sacks over the past three years. This is a speculative pick, as Iupati is a guard but most scouts feel he possesses the skill set to also play right tackle.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers - Maurkice Pouncey, OC/OG, Florida
- In reality, the Steelers could use help at a variety of spots in the trenches, as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 46 or more times in each of the last four seasons, which equates to a total of 189 sacks during this period of time. Pouncey is versatile enough to play center or offensive guard, making him a valuable commodity.
19. Atlanta Falcons - Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan
- In 2009, Atlanta only managed 28 sacks ranking 26th in the NFL. John Abraham turns 32 prior to the season and dropped from 16.5 sacks in 2008 to 5.5 last season. Former first-round pick Jamaal Anderson is officially a bust after posting 2.5 sacks in his first three seasons. Kroy Biermann has potential, but the interior line needs a dynamic edge rusher. At 6-foot-1, Graham is undersized for a 4-3 defensive end, but he has a non-stop motor and is a great athlete.
20. Houston Texans - Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
- Dunta Robinson played under the franchise tag last year, and was allowed to walk to Atlanta via free agency. Rookie Glover Quin, who started 12 games, was a physical presence against the run and fared well in coverage. Jacques Reeves is a solid nickel option, but the Texans need a No. 2 cornerback.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
- In 2009, Reggie Kelly (Achilles), Ben Utecht (concussion) and Chase Coffman (foot) all landed on injured reserve, missing a combined total of 38 games. As a result, John Paul Foschi started during the second half of the season, but he isn't the answer and wasn't tendered an offer to stay. Coffman can't block and is still learning how to run routes at the pro level. The offense is in dire need of a tight end that can make plays in the passing game and block in run support, and Gresham is arguably the most complete package at the position in the draft.
22. New England Patriots - Sergio Kindle, LB, Texas
- The Pats ranked 23rd in the NFL with only 31 sacks, and will have to improve the pass rush to bolster the defensive side of the ball. Prior to the 2009 season, New England acquired Derrick Burgess from the Raiders for third- and fifth-round draft picks, but he only provided five sacks. Adalius Thomas landed in the doghouse last year and probably won't be invited back, leaving outside linebacker as one of the Pats largest concerns.
23. Green Bay Packers - Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama
- Charles Woodson, the '09 Defensive Player of the Year, keeps getting better with age, but he turns 34 prior to the season and might only have a couple of years left. Al Harris, 35, underwent major reconstructive surgery on his left knee in late December, and will miss most of the offseason program and possibly training camp. Dom Capers likes to play a lot of man-to-man coverage, so adding a quality corner is high on the list of priorities. It's also a plus that Jackson played in a 3-4 scheme at Alabama.
24. Philadelphia Eagles - Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State
- The Eagles traded starter Sheldon Brown to the Browns and nickel-back Ellis Hobbs landed on season-ending injured reserve with a neck injury last season. Hobbs is a quality player but there are some durability concerns and he has been inconsistent when called on to be a starter.
25. Baltimore Ravens - Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech
- Despite the fact that they have added Anquan Boldin and Donte' Stallworth, this has been a position of need for the past few years, and it's critical for the Ravens to continue to upgrade the receiver corps. GM Ozzie Newsome could also opt for a cornerback in this slot, but Thomas possesses massive upside and has time to learn the ropes behind veteran Derrick Mason.
26. Arizona Cardinals - Charles Brown, OT, USC
- Left tackle Mike Gandy is an unrestricted free agent that missed four games last year and underwent surgery in December to repair a sports hernia injury. He was whistled for eight penalties and surrendered eight sacks in 2009, so his status for 2010 is uncertain. Jeremy Bridges replaced Gandy down the stretch, but he's more comfortable at guard. The team could move Levi Brown to left tackle, but they need reinforcements along the line.
27. Dallas Cowboys - Taylor Mays, S, USC
- Free safety Ken Hamlin, who missed four games with a high-ankle sprain, is a solid veteran but the splash plays are missing from his repertoire. Case in point, in the last two years he has produced three impact plays. At strong safety, Gerald Sensabaugh is a restricted free agent. The team will likely bring him back, but the depth is lacking in this area of the defense and the Cowboys could use an enforcer in the secondary.
28. San Diego Chargers - Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama
- The Chargers finished 20th in run defense, allowing 117.8 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. The Jets ground game gashed them for 169 yards on 39 carries during the playoffs, which led to San Diego getting bounced in the divisional round of the playoffs. Nose tackle Jamal Williams has moved on to Denver, and the Bolts need a two-gap, space-eater to be at its most effective.
29. New York Jets - Jared Odrick, DE, Penn State
- Defensive end Shaun Ellis, 32, is still playing at a high level, but he underwent surgery on a broken left hand and dealt with swelling in his knee throughout the season. On the other side, Marques Douglas recently turned 33 and is an unrestricted free agent.
30. Minnesota Vikings - Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers
- Cedric Griffin underwent surgery in mid-February to repair a torn ACL, and will miss the offseason program and might not be ready for training camp. Throw in the fact that Antoine Winfield, who turns 33 prior to the season, has missed 12 starts due to injuries the past two years and the Vikes would be wise to address the position.
31. Indianapolis Colts - Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee
- The run defense has been a sieve over the past two seasons, and in 2009, ranked 24th in the league allowing 126.5 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. Defensive tackles Antonio Johnson and Dan Muir, who started a combined 25 games last season, are restricted free agents that have been tendered at a second-round level. Not sure if Williams will actually drop this far, but he's a steal if he does.
32. New Orleans Saints - Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri
- Scott Fujita walked in free agency to the Cleveland Browns, and Scott Shanle is a serviceable type who rarely makes impact plays. The Saints need to get more explosive in the second level of the defense, and Weatherspoon fits the bill.
1. St Louis Rams - Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
- After signing a six-year, $65 million pact prior to the 2006 season, Marc Bulger missed 12 starts due to injuries, throwing 27 touchdowns against 34 picks. His play regressed to the point where it would've been unfair to trot him out as the starter in 2010, and the organization cut ties during the offseason. Throw in the facts that the NFL is a quarterback driven league and the Rams are 6-42 over the last three years… and this team needs a field general in a bad way.
2. Detroit Lions - Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
- In 2009, the Lions ranked 25th in run defense, allowing 126.6 yards per game, 4.4 yards per carry and 18 rushing touchdowns. Back in March, they traded for defensive tackle Corey Williams, who will help bolster the interior line. But there's no way Detroit can pass on "House of Spears," who is considered the best player in the draft and one of the top defensive tackle prospects of the past decade.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
- Last year, the Buccaneers finished dead last in run defense, allowing 158.4 yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. The interior line desperately needs one-gap penetrator who is also stout against the run. This description fits McCoy perfectly, as he has been compared to Warren Sapp, a seven-time Pro Bowler who played in Tampa from 1995-2003.
4. Washington Redskins - Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
- New head coach Mike Shanahan secured his franchise quarterback, giving up the 37th overall pick in the 2010 draft and a conditional 2011 fourth rounder to the Eagles for Donovan McNabb. On the flip side, the Redskins offensive line allowed 46 sacks in '09, which was the fourth highest total in the league. Left tackle Chris Samuels recently retired and right tackle Stephon Heyer allowed nine sacks last year, so the new regime needs to address a shoddy O-line.
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
- The offensive line surrendered 45 sacks last year, which was the sixth most in the NFL. Left tackle Branden Albert, who was responsible for nine of the sacks, regressed during his second season. The organization will likely select a tackle in this spot, and could move Albert to right tackle, with the hopes of solidifying two spots in the trenches. Regardless of how it plays out, Pioli needs to upgrade an O-line currently filled with only serviceable talent.
6. Seattle Seahawks - Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
- Nine-time Pro Bowl left tackle Walter Jones missed the entire 2009 season with a knee injury and is on the fence in regards to retirement. Sean Locklear filled in admirably for Jones last year, but he missed six starts due to an ankle injury and has major durability issues. Finding a solid left tackle should be priority one for new head coach Pete Carroll, especially after moving down in the second round to acquire quarterback Charlie Whitehurst from the Chargers.
7. Cleveland Browns - Joe Haden, CB, Florida
- Eric Wright has developed into a solid cornerback with 27 passes defended and seven interceptions over the last two seasons. On the opposite side, Brandon McDonald regressed last year and was benched in favor of backup free safety Michael Adams three different times during the campaign. The Browns ranked 29th in the league against the pass, allowing 244.7 yards per game and the lack of depth on the roster makes this a position of major need.
8. Oakland Raiders - Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
= The offensive line surrendered 49 sacks and the rushing offense fell to 21st, averaging only 106.7 yards per game. Left tackle Mario Henderson regressed in his third season, allowing 9.5 sacks and faded down the stretch in both run support and pass protection. Right tackle Cornell Green, an unrestricted free agent, signed with the Bills leaving this unit in need of reinforcements. Also, owner Al Davis is known for reaching for "workout warriors" and Campbell arguably had the best overall performance amongst offensive linemen at the Combine.
9. Buffalo Bills - Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
- Prior to the 2009 season, Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peterson was traded to Philadelphia, and right tackle Langston Walker was named his replacement. Walker was released a week before the season started and the Bills used four different players to try and fill the premium position. The offensive line allowed 46 sacks and the Bills ranked 30th in total yards, 30th in passing yards, 32nd in third down conversion success and 28th in points scored.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars - Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
- To be totally blunt, this area of the roster contains a variety of rag-tag players. The secondary could actually use an infusion of talent at both strong and free safety, but the biggest need is the latter, as Reggie Nelson might have played himself out of town last year. Sean Considine looks the part from an athletic standpoint, but he always seems to be nicked. At the end of the day, the Jags need help in all three levels of the defense, but I can't let Berry fall any further in this mock.
11. Denver Broncos - Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
Brandon Marshall clashed with the coaching staff last year, and was traded to the Miami Dolphins for a 2010 second round pick and 2011 second round pick. This transaction leaves a major void on the wide receiver depth chart, and regardless of the reported off-field concerns, Bryant is the only blue-chip receiver prospect in this class.
12. Miami Dolphins - Earl Thomas, S, Texas
- The Dolphins have needs at outside linebacker and defensive tackle, but Thomas is the highest rated player left on the board in this spot. The team released free safety Gibril Wilson following the 2009 season, and Thomas combines excellent speed, range and coverage abilities.
13. San Francisco 49ers - C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
- Frank Gore, 26, has missed five games due to nagging injuries over the last three campaigns, and coach Mike Singletary would like to lighten his workload to extend his career. Glen Coffee shined in the 2009 preseason averaging 5.9 yards on 42 carries, but was disappointing in the regular season, averaging 2.7 yards on 83 rushing attempts. The team needs to add a change-of-pace running back capable of making some splash plays, and Spiller can also assist in the return game.
14. Seattle Seahawks - Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
- The Seahawks only posted 28 sacks last season, ranking 26th in this category. The lack of a pass rush resulted in opposing quarterbacks completing 65.8 percent of their passes with 27 touchdowns. Darryl Tapp has been traded to Philadelphia and Patrick Kerney recently retired, making this a position of major need and Morgan is considered the most pro-ready defensive end in this class.
15. New York Giants - Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
- Antonio Pierce missed seven starts after being placed on injured-reserve with a bulging disc in his neck. The nine-year veteran was due to make $4.75 million in 2010, but was released due to questions about his health. Pierce was the quarterback of the defense, so this leaves a huge leadership void. The primary backup, Jonathan Goff, started four games down the stretch, but is a one-dimensional thumper who lacks instincts for the position.
16. Tennessee Titans - Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida
- Veteran Kyle Vanden Bosch walked in free agency to Motown. William Hayes and Jacob Ford combined for 9.5 sacks last year and are promising youngsters, but the defense needs an explosive edge-rusher that can get after the quarterback. Pierre-Paul is RAW but his upside is off the charts.
17. San Francisco 49ers - Mike Iupati, G, Idaho
- Left tackle Joe Staley sprained the MCL and ACL in his left knee, causing him to miss seven games during the second half of last season. He signed a six-year extension prior to 2009 and is a very solid option when healthy. On the right side, Adam Snyder is below average, allowing 25.5 sacks over the past three years. This is a speculative pick, as Iupati is a guard but most scouts feel he possesses the skill set to also play right tackle.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers - Maurkice Pouncey, OC/OG, Florida
- In reality, the Steelers could use help at a variety of spots in the trenches, as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 46 or more times in each of the last four seasons, which equates to a total of 189 sacks during this period of time. Pouncey is versatile enough to play center or offensive guard, making him a valuable commodity.
19. Atlanta Falcons - Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan
- In 2009, Atlanta only managed 28 sacks ranking 26th in the NFL. John Abraham turns 32 prior to the season and dropped from 16.5 sacks in 2008 to 5.5 last season. Former first-round pick Jamaal Anderson is officially a bust after posting 2.5 sacks in his first three seasons. Kroy Biermann has potential, but the interior line needs a dynamic edge rusher. At 6-foot-1, Graham is undersized for a 4-3 defensive end, but he has a non-stop motor and is a great athlete.
20. Houston Texans - Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
- Dunta Robinson played under the franchise tag last year, and was allowed to walk to Atlanta via free agency. Rookie Glover Quin, who started 12 games, was a physical presence against the run and fared well in coverage. Jacques Reeves is a solid nickel option, but the Texans need a No. 2 cornerback.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
- In 2009, Reggie Kelly (Achilles), Ben Utecht (concussion) and Chase Coffman (foot) all landed on injured reserve, missing a combined total of 38 games. As a result, John Paul Foschi started during the second half of the season, but he isn't the answer and wasn't tendered an offer to stay. Coffman can't block and is still learning how to run routes at the pro level. The offense is in dire need of a tight end that can make plays in the passing game and block in run support, and Gresham is arguably the most complete package at the position in the draft.
22. New England Patriots - Sergio Kindle, LB, Texas
- The Pats ranked 23rd in the NFL with only 31 sacks, and will have to improve the pass rush to bolster the defensive side of the ball. Prior to the 2009 season, New England acquired Derrick Burgess from the Raiders for third- and fifth-round draft picks, but he only provided five sacks. Adalius Thomas landed in the doghouse last year and probably won't be invited back, leaving outside linebacker as one of the Pats largest concerns.
23. Green Bay Packers - Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama
- Charles Woodson, the '09 Defensive Player of the Year, keeps getting better with age, but he turns 34 prior to the season and might only have a couple of years left. Al Harris, 35, underwent major reconstructive surgery on his left knee in late December, and will miss most of the offseason program and possibly training camp. Dom Capers likes to play a lot of man-to-man coverage, so adding a quality corner is high on the list of priorities. It's also a plus that Jackson played in a 3-4 scheme at Alabama.
24. Philadelphia Eagles - Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State
- The Eagles traded starter Sheldon Brown to the Browns and nickel-back Ellis Hobbs landed on season-ending injured reserve with a neck injury last season. Hobbs is a quality player but there are some durability concerns and he has been inconsistent when called on to be a starter.
25. Baltimore Ravens - Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech
- Despite the fact that they have added Anquan Boldin and Donte' Stallworth, this has been a position of need for the past few years, and it's critical for the Ravens to continue to upgrade the receiver corps. GM Ozzie Newsome could also opt for a cornerback in this slot, but Thomas possesses massive upside and has time to learn the ropes behind veteran Derrick Mason.
26. Arizona Cardinals - Charles Brown, OT, USC
- Left tackle Mike Gandy is an unrestricted free agent that missed four games last year and underwent surgery in December to repair a sports hernia injury. He was whistled for eight penalties and surrendered eight sacks in 2009, so his status for 2010 is uncertain. Jeremy Bridges replaced Gandy down the stretch, but he's more comfortable at guard. The team could move Levi Brown to left tackle, but they need reinforcements along the line.
27. Dallas Cowboys - Taylor Mays, S, USC
- Free safety Ken Hamlin, who missed four games with a high-ankle sprain, is a solid veteran but the splash plays are missing from his repertoire. Case in point, in the last two years he has produced three impact plays. At strong safety, Gerald Sensabaugh is a restricted free agent. The team will likely bring him back, but the depth is lacking in this area of the defense and the Cowboys could use an enforcer in the secondary.
28. San Diego Chargers - Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama
- The Chargers finished 20th in run defense, allowing 117.8 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. The Jets ground game gashed them for 169 yards on 39 carries during the playoffs, which led to San Diego getting bounced in the divisional round of the playoffs. Nose tackle Jamal Williams has moved on to Denver, and the Bolts need a two-gap, space-eater to be at its most effective.
29. New York Jets - Jared Odrick, DE, Penn State
- Defensive end Shaun Ellis, 32, is still playing at a high level, but he underwent surgery on a broken left hand and dealt with swelling in his knee throughout the season. On the other side, Marques Douglas recently turned 33 and is an unrestricted free agent.
30. Minnesota Vikings - Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers
- Cedric Griffin underwent surgery in mid-February to repair a torn ACL, and will miss the offseason program and might not be ready for training camp. Throw in the fact that Antoine Winfield, who turns 33 prior to the season, has missed 12 starts due to injuries the past two years and the Vikes would be wise to address the position.
31. Indianapolis Colts - Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee
- The run defense has been a sieve over the past two seasons, and in 2009, ranked 24th in the league allowing 126.5 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. Defensive tackles Antonio Johnson and Dan Muir, who started a combined 25 games last season, are restricted free agents that have been tendered at a second-round level. Not sure if Williams will actually drop this far, but he's a steal if he does.
32. New Orleans Saints - Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri
- Scott Fujita walked in free agency to the Cleveland Browns, and Scott Shanle is a serviceable type who rarely makes impact plays. The Saints need to get more explosive in the second level of the defense, and Weatherspoon fits the bill.
Big Ben's Apology
by Rick Hawes
Posted 4/13/2010 11:18 AM
Yesterday, Ocmulgee Circuit District Attorney Fred Bright announced that Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will not face charges after a 20-year-old college student accused him of sexually assaulting her at a nightclub in Georgia.
"Here the overall circumstances do not lead to a viable prosecution. If they did, I would be pursuing it vigorously," Bright said. "We do not prosecute morals. We prosecute crimes."
Following the decision, Roethlisberger read a 74-second statement at a podium in the Steelers locker room.
"The prosecutor's decision not to bring charges, I know without a doubt, is the right conclusion," said Roethlisberger. "I don't intend to discuss any details related to the events of Georgia. I'm happy to put this behind me and move forward."
I watched Big Ben's apology live on the NFL Network, and came away very unimpressed. I'm not here to judge Roethlisberger because I wasn't at the club, and don't know what happened. But what I do know, is when you make a public apology, it should at least appear to come from the heart and be sincere. The six-year veteran read his statement off of 3-by-5 cards and the entire thing looked like it was scripted.
I fully realize that not all-professional athletes are media savvy, but I think if I was reading a statement that lasted all of one minute and 14 seconds, I could look directly into the camera and give my statement without looking down at a pre-written speech.
Once again, not trying to judge Big Ben but it came off as a dog-and-pony show to me. Especially considering that he's facing a civil lawsuit for similar behavior in Nevada, and Boston attorney Harry Manion stated that he recently investigated yet another incident involving Roethlisberger, which mirrored the situation at the Georgia nightclub.
"Six months ago I was retained by a client of mine and a close friend to investigate allegations against Roethlisberger in a Las Vegas nightclub that were absolutely identical to this Georgia girl's story," said Manion. "The outcome was that the young woman did not want to proceed, and we did not take any action. There is a history here - and I can't say any further because we never proceeded with it - but there is a history here that is just super troubling."
In closing, another thing I noticed about this press conference - which was different than in the previous Nevada case - not a single member of the Steelers organization was present when Roethlisberger faced the press and made his apology. He's due to meet with Commissioner Roger Goodell this afternoon, and whether he suspends him or not, it appears that Steelers president Art Rooney II and head coach Mike Tomlin could very well inactivate him for at least one or two games at the outset of the 2010 season. Stay tuned.
"Here the overall circumstances do not lead to a viable prosecution. If they did, I would be pursuing it vigorously," Bright said. "We do not prosecute morals. We prosecute crimes."
Following the decision, Roethlisberger read a 74-second statement at a podium in the Steelers locker room.
"The prosecutor's decision not to bring charges, I know without a doubt, is the right conclusion," said Roethlisberger. "I don't intend to discuss any details related to the events of Georgia. I'm happy to put this behind me and move forward."
I watched Big Ben's apology live on the NFL Network, and came away very unimpressed. I'm not here to judge Roethlisberger because I wasn't at the club, and don't know what happened. But what I do know, is when you make a public apology, it should at least appear to come from the heart and be sincere. The six-year veteran read his statement off of 3-by-5 cards and the entire thing looked like it was scripted.
I fully realize that not all-professional athletes are media savvy, but I think if I was reading a statement that lasted all of one minute and 14 seconds, I could look directly into the camera and give my statement without looking down at a pre-written speech.
Once again, not trying to judge Big Ben but it came off as a dog-and-pony show to me. Especially considering that he's facing a civil lawsuit for similar behavior in Nevada, and Boston attorney Harry Manion stated that he recently investigated yet another incident involving Roethlisberger, which mirrored the situation at the Georgia nightclub.
"Six months ago I was retained by a client of mine and a close friend to investigate allegations against Roethlisberger in a Las Vegas nightclub that were absolutely identical to this Georgia girl's story," said Manion. "The outcome was that the young woman did not want to proceed, and we did not take any action. There is a history here - and I can't say any further because we never proceeded with it - but there is a history here that is just super troubling."
In closing, another thing I noticed about this press conference - which was different than in the previous Nevada case - not a single member of the Steelers organization was present when Roethlisberger faced the press and made his apology. He's due to meet with Commissioner Roger Goodell this afternoon, and whether he suspends him or not, it appears that Steelers president Art Rooney II and head coach Mike Tomlin could very well inactivate him for at least one or two games at the outset of the 2010 season. Stay tuned.
Sam I Am
by Rick Hawes
Posted 3/29/2010 4:08 PM
During the first couple months of 2010, Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh seemed to be the unanimous pick to go first overall to St. Louis in the NFL draft. However, late in February, ESPN's Adam Schefter predicted Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford would get selected in the one hole, matter of fact he was confident about it.
"On the basis of what I've talked to people around the league [about], everything I've heard," Schefter said on a St. Louis ESPN radio spot. "At some point, it's gonna shift to this guy, and I don't know whether it'll be now (Feb. 25) or late March."
At the time, most NFL organizations where concerned about Bradford's shoulder injury, which shelved him for all but three games of his junior season. He suffered a third degree AC Joint sprain in the season opener before undergoing reconstructive surgery later in the year.
This morning, Bradford alleviated a lot those concerns at Oklahoma's Pro Day with a workout in front of all 32 NFL teams. He started out with 13 stationary throws before concluding the day with the scripted 50-pass portion of the workout. According to many in attendance only one ball hit the ground, and Bradford received rave reviews:
-> Terry Shea, a veteran college and NFL coach, has been working with Bradford leading up to his Pro Day and described it as a "lights out" performance.
"I've never seen a performance like this," Shea said. "A lot of people came up to me and said it's as good a workout as they've ever seen."
-> Seattle head coach Pete Carroll who attended the event, tweeted: "Bradford had a great workout at his pro day … He lit it up!"
-> Gil Brandt, the former Cowboys personnel executive, said it was the best workout he has seen since Troy Aikman back in 1989.
"The guy was fantastic," Brandt said. "The thing that is a little surprising is he had the velocity on the ball he did. He's only been throwing the ball for four weeks. I would imagine it's like baseball pitchers, you build up your arm strength. The guy threw every route. He did not throw one bad pass. It's a very catchable ball, he moves around well, he carries himself well. I think he's got a very, very bright future ahead of him."
-> NFL Network draft guru Mike Mayock stated he was extremely accurate on short-touch routes, intermediate throws and deep passes.
Additionally, Bradford didn't display any fatigue during the workout, which should put to rest his shoulder being an issue going forward. Next up, he has an individual workout for the Rams on April 19 where he has a chance to solidify the No. 1 spot in the draft.
Bottom line: St. Louis has only compiled 23 touchdown passes combined in the last two years, and the NFL is a quarterback driven league. It might be premature to ink Bradford to the Rams, but at this point, it's looking more and more like Schefter was prophetic back in late February. Stay tuned.
"On the basis of what I've talked to people around the league [about], everything I've heard," Schefter said on a St. Louis ESPN radio spot. "At some point, it's gonna shift to this guy, and I don't know whether it'll be now (Feb. 25) or late March."
At the time, most NFL organizations where concerned about Bradford's shoulder injury, which shelved him for all but three games of his junior season. He suffered a third degree AC Joint sprain in the season opener before undergoing reconstructive surgery later in the year.
This morning, Bradford alleviated a lot those concerns at Oklahoma's Pro Day with a workout in front of all 32 NFL teams. He started out with 13 stationary throws before concluding the day with the scripted 50-pass portion of the workout. According to many in attendance only one ball hit the ground, and Bradford received rave reviews:
-> Terry Shea, a veteran college and NFL coach, has been working with Bradford leading up to his Pro Day and described it as a "lights out" performance.
"I've never seen a performance like this," Shea said. "A lot of people came up to me and said it's as good a workout as they've ever seen."
-> Seattle head coach Pete Carroll who attended the event, tweeted: "Bradford had a great workout at his pro day … He lit it up!"
-> Gil Brandt, the former Cowboys personnel executive, said it was the best workout he has seen since Troy Aikman back in 1989.
"The guy was fantastic," Brandt said. "The thing that is a little surprising is he had the velocity on the ball he did. He's only been throwing the ball for four weeks. I would imagine it's like baseball pitchers, you build up your arm strength. The guy threw every route. He did not throw one bad pass. It's a very catchable ball, he moves around well, he carries himself well. I think he's got a very, very bright future ahead of him."
-> NFL Network draft guru Mike Mayock stated he was extremely accurate on short-touch routes, intermediate throws and deep passes.
Additionally, Bradford didn't display any fatigue during the workout, which should put to rest his shoulder being an issue going forward. Next up, he has an individual workout for the Rams on April 19 where he has a chance to solidify the No. 1 spot in the draft.
Bottom line: St. Louis has only compiled 23 touchdown passes combined in the last two years, and the NFL is a quarterback driven league. It might be premature to ink Bradford to the Rams, but at this point, it's looking more and more like Schefter was prophetic back in late February. Stay tuned.
Individual Defensive Players
by Rick Hawes
Posted 3/26/2010 3:27 PM
Over the last week, I have been creating preliminary Individual Defensive Player (IDP) projections in preparation for five fantasy football magazines that Fanball will be publishing this offseason.
Doing projections can be a monotonous task, but I feel it's a worthwhile effort, which produces better results than just coming up with rankings based on personal preferences. When processing projections, I try to be as objective as possible, taking into account previous performance, injury history and schematic changes.
That said, I thought I'd share my top-12 linebackers, defensive backs and defensive linemen, with the caveat that these rankings are extremely fluid given that the season is still five months away (sigh).
Note: These rankings are based on the following scoring system:
- Solo tackle = 2 points
- Assisted tackle = 1 point
- Sack = 4 points
- Interception = 4 points
- Forced fumble, Fumble Recovery = 3 points
Linebackers
1. Patrick Willis, SF - 109+ solo tackles in each of the last three years.
2. Jon Beason, CAR - Top-three IDP performer in the last two seasons.
3. Barrett Ruud, TB - Averaged 104 solo tackles in 2008-09.
4. Kirk Morrison, OAK - 91+ solos in each of past five campaigns.
5. D.J. Williams, DEN - 100 or more solos in two of last three years.
6. D'Qwell Jackson, CLE - Could be an out-of-sight, out-of-mind value.
7. Brian Cushing, HOU - Beast who can tackle, cover and rush the passer.
8. David Harris, NYJ - Rex Ryan's new Ray-Ray Lewis.
9. James Laurinaitis, STL - 107 solos in his rookie campaign, solid in coverage.
10. Paul Posluszny, BUF - Needs to stay healthy, but is improving in coverage.
11. Karlos Dansby, MIA - Changing teams is a concern but it's still a 3-4 scheme.
12. London Fletcher, WAS - Dude is like the energizer bunny.
Defensive Backs
1. Tyvon Branch, OAK - The strong safety gig in Oaktown is a gold mine.
2. Yeremiah Bell, MIA - Provides linebacker production at strong safety.
3. Oshiomogho Atogwe, STL - OJ has a penchant for making splash plays.
4. Bernard Pollard, HOU - Kansas City's trash is Houston's treasure.
5. Dashon Goldson, SF - Up-and-comer heading into his fourth season.
6. Roman Harper, NO - One of the safest choices on the board.
7. Erik Coleman, ATL - Top-10 defensive back in each of the last two years.
8. Louis Delmas, DET - A pro from day one and is only going to improve.
9. Eric Weddle, SD - Some will sleep on him after missing three games in '09.
10. Antoine Bethea, IND - Might have him ranked a little high, but very safe choice.
11. Brian Dawkins, DEN- I doubted "Weapon X" last year, not happening this season.
12. Quintin Mikell, PHI - The free safety slot is a mess, but Mikell is the real deal.
Defensive Linemen
1. Jared Allen, MIN - 44.5 sacks and 11 forced fumbles over the last three years.
2. Trent Cole, PHI - The addition of Darryl Tapp should alleviate some of the double teams.
3. Terrell Suggs, BAL - Watch your league's designation, could be a LB this year.
4. Justin Tuck, NYG - Top-three DL in each of last two campaigns.
5. Julius Peppers, CHI - Double-digit sacks in five of last six seasons.
6. Will Smith, NO - Might have him ranked a little high after a career-high 13.5 sacks in '09.
7. Mario Williams, HOU - Double-digit sacks in two of last three years.
8. Robert Mathis, IND - Owes a lot of his success to Dwight Freeney on opposite side.
9. Justin Smith, SF - Top-10 DL in 2008/2009 and is solid in run support.
10. Kyle Vanden Bosch, DET - Can he rebound after two subpar years?
11. Aaron Kampman, JAC - Very fluid ranking due to reconstructive knee surgery.
12. Ray Edwards, MIN - Ascendant player who is improving in run support.
Doing projections can be a monotonous task, but I feel it's a worthwhile effort, which produces better results than just coming up with rankings based on personal preferences. When processing projections, I try to be as objective as possible, taking into account previous performance, injury history and schematic changes.
That said, I thought I'd share my top-12 linebackers, defensive backs and defensive linemen, with the caveat that these rankings are extremely fluid given that the season is still five months away (sigh).
Note: These rankings are based on the following scoring system:
- Solo tackle = 2 points
- Assisted tackle = 1 point
- Sack = 4 points
- Interception = 4 points
- Forced fumble, Fumble Recovery = 3 points
Linebackers
1. Patrick Willis, SF - 109+ solo tackles in each of the last three years.
2. Jon Beason, CAR - Top-three IDP performer in the last two seasons.
3. Barrett Ruud, TB - Averaged 104 solo tackles in 2008-09.
4. Kirk Morrison, OAK - 91+ solos in each of past five campaigns.
5. D.J. Williams, DEN - 100 or more solos in two of last three years.
6. D'Qwell Jackson, CLE - Could be an out-of-sight, out-of-mind value.
7. Brian Cushing, HOU - Beast who can tackle, cover and rush the passer.
8. David Harris, NYJ - Rex Ryan's new Ray-Ray Lewis.
9. James Laurinaitis, STL - 107 solos in his rookie campaign, solid in coverage.
10. Paul Posluszny, BUF - Needs to stay healthy, but is improving in coverage.
11. Karlos Dansby, MIA - Changing teams is a concern but it's still a 3-4 scheme.
12. London Fletcher, WAS - Dude is like the energizer bunny.
Defensive Backs
1. Tyvon Branch, OAK - The strong safety gig in Oaktown is a gold mine.
2. Yeremiah Bell, MIA - Provides linebacker production at strong safety.
3. Oshiomogho Atogwe, STL - OJ has a penchant for making splash plays.
4. Bernard Pollard, HOU - Kansas City's trash is Houston's treasure.
5. Dashon Goldson, SF - Up-and-comer heading into his fourth season.
6. Roman Harper, NO - One of the safest choices on the board.
7. Erik Coleman, ATL - Top-10 defensive back in each of the last two years.
8. Louis Delmas, DET - A pro from day one and is only going to improve.
9. Eric Weddle, SD - Some will sleep on him after missing three games in '09.
10. Antoine Bethea, IND - Might have him ranked a little high, but very safe choice.
11. Brian Dawkins, DEN- I doubted "Weapon X" last year, not happening this season.
12. Quintin Mikell, PHI - The free safety slot is a mess, but Mikell is the real deal.
Defensive Linemen
1. Jared Allen, MIN - 44.5 sacks and 11 forced fumbles over the last three years.
2. Trent Cole, PHI - The addition of Darryl Tapp should alleviate some of the double teams.
3. Terrell Suggs, BAL - Watch your league's designation, could be a LB this year.
4. Justin Tuck, NYG - Top-three DL in each of last two campaigns.
5. Julius Peppers, CHI - Double-digit sacks in five of last six seasons.
6. Will Smith, NO - Might have him ranked a little high after a career-high 13.5 sacks in '09.
7. Mario Williams, HOU - Double-digit sacks in two of last three years.
8. Robert Mathis, IND - Owes a lot of his success to Dwight Freeney on opposite side.
9. Justin Smith, SF - Top-10 DL in 2008/2009 and is solid in run support.
10. Kyle Vanden Bosch, DET - Can he rebound after two subpar years?
11. Aaron Kampman, JAC - Very fluid ranking due to reconstructive knee surgery.
12. Ray Edwards, MIN - Ascendant player who is improving in run support.
LT lands in the Big Apple
by Rick Hawes
Posted 3/16/2010 12:37 PM
On Sunday, March 14, the New York Jets signed running back LaDainian Tomlinson to a two-year, $5.2 million contract with another $500,000 available in incentives. The Minnesota Vikings were also courting Tomlinson, but he reportedly made the decision based on his familiarity with Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, who was the Bolts quarterbacks coach from 2002-06.
"I had two places that wanted me and I think the major decision it came down to was playing in a new offense or playing in an offense I already know with Brian Schottenheimer," Tomlinson said on a conference call today. "It was pretty tough but when it comes down to it you've got to go with your gut and go with what you feel."
Ultimately, I feel Tomlinson made the decision based more on the probability of a larger role with the Jets than he would have had in Minnesota. After all, common sense tells us that LT will likely receive more playing time in the Big Apple behind second-year player Shonn Greene, than he would have as Adrian Peterson's caddy.
Since the signing there has been a lot of questions regarding how much gas Tomlinson has left in the tank, and how the transaction effects the value of Greene, who many fantasy heads had in their top-15 running backs (if not higher) prior to the news.
In my opinion, this signing is more about Leon Washington's status then Greene, who will still shoulder much of the rushing workload. Washington is a great runner, receiver and return man, but he missed nine games last year due to a fractured fibula. Washington is still rehabbing from the broken right leg, though the team expects him to be ready for training camp. In other words, there is some uncertainty regarding the five-year veteran, and if he is slow to return, Tomlinson can handle his share of the carries and provide a serviceable receiver out of the backfield in passing situations.
So how much does Tomlinson have left the tank?
LT turns 31 in June and has 2,880 carries of wear and tear on his body. Throw in the 530 receptions and it climbs to 3,410 total touches during his nine-year career. His yards per carry average has dropped in four consecutive seasons from 5.2 in 2006 to 4.7 in 2007 to 3.8 in 2008, and finally down to a career low 3.3 last season. If you have followed the game for very long, you know this is a trend that's difficult to reverse.
Tomlinson has also been dogged by a litany of injuries (hamstring, sprained MCL, right big toe, groin strain, abdominal strain) over the last three years, causing him to miss two playoff games and be ineffective in the ones he actually played in. In his last five postseason games, LT only compiled 47 carries for 124 yards resulting in a 2.6 yards per carry average. In 2009, he failed to notch a 100-yard game and didn't go over 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career. He averaged 3.9 or less yards per carry in 13 of 15 starts (including the playoffs).
On the positive tip, Tomlinson will be running behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and he still has a knack for getting the ball in the end zone (double-digit touchdowns in each of the last nine years). However, I believe he is running on fumes and is nothing more than a third-down back, who is capable of giving Greene some breather carries. He can also handle some of the dirty work at the stripe to keep Greene fresh for the playoffs, as LT has proven over the last three years that he can't be counted on during crunch time in the postseason. And finally, the irony of this signing is the Jets saw his struggles first hand in last year's divisional playoff game at San Diego. In the Chargers 17-14 loss, Tomlinson carried the ball 12 times for 24 yards and reeled in three receptions for zero yards.
At the end of the day, LT will likely be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but this deal seems more about putting butts in seats at the new stadium and selling jerseys, than it is about on-field production. Time will tell, good day.
"I had two places that wanted me and I think the major decision it came down to was playing in a new offense or playing in an offense I already know with Brian Schottenheimer," Tomlinson said on a conference call today. "It was pretty tough but when it comes down to it you've got to go with your gut and go with what you feel."
Ultimately, I feel Tomlinson made the decision based more on the probability of a larger role with the Jets than he would have had in Minnesota. After all, common sense tells us that LT will likely receive more playing time in the Big Apple behind second-year player Shonn Greene, than he would have as Adrian Peterson's caddy.
Since the signing there has been a lot of questions regarding how much gas Tomlinson has left in the tank, and how the transaction effects the value of Greene, who many fantasy heads had in their top-15 running backs (if not higher) prior to the news.
In my opinion, this signing is more about Leon Washington's status then Greene, who will still shoulder much of the rushing workload. Washington is a great runner, receiver and return man, but he missed nine games last year due to a fractured fibula. Washington is still rehabbing from the broken right leg, though the team expects him to be ready for training camp. In other words, there is some uncertainty regarding the five-year veteran, and if he is slow to return, Tomlinson can handle his share of the carries and provide a serviceable receiver out of the backfield in passing situations.
So how much does Tomlinson have left the tank?
LT turns 31 in June and has 2,880 carries of wear and tear on his body. Throw in the 530 receptions and it climbs to 3,410 total touches during his nine-year career. His yards per carry average has dropped in four consecutive seasons from 5.2 in 2006 to 4.7 in 2007 to 3.8 in 2008, and finally down to a career low 3.3 last season. If you have followed the game for very long, you know this is a trend that's difficult to reverse.
Tomlinson has also been dogged by a litany of injuries (hamstring, sprained MCL, right big toe, groin strain, abdominal strain) over the last three years, causing him to miss two playoff games and be ineffective in the ones he actually played in. In his last five postseason games, LT only compiled 47 carries for 124 yards resulting in a 2.6 yards per carry average. In 2009, he failed to notch a 100-yard game and didn't go over 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career. He averaged 3.9 or less yards per carry in 13 of 15 starts (including the playoffs).
On the positive tip, Tomlinson will be running behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and he still has a knack for getting the ball in the end zone (double-digit touchdowns in each of the last nine years). However, I believe he is running on fumes and is nothing more than a third-down back, who is capable of giving Greene some breather carries. He can also handle some of the dirty work at the stripe to keep Greene fresh for the playoffs, as LT has proven over the last three years that he can't be counted on during crunch time in the postseason. And finally, the irony of this signing is the Jets saw his struggles first hand in last year's divisional playoff game at San Diego. In the Chargers 17-14 loss, Tomlinson carried the ball 12 times for 24 yards and reeled in three receptions for zero yards.
At the end of the day, LT will likely be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but this deal seems more about putting butts in seats at the new stadium and selling jerseys, than it is about on-field production. Time will tell, good day.
Did Cincy overpay for Bryant?
by Rick Hawes
Posted 3/12/2010 1:48 PM
Earlier this morning, the Cincinnati Bengals officially signed wide receiver Antonio Bryant to a four-year, $28 million contract. The eight-year veteran is widely considered the top unrestricted free agent on the market and was chosen over Terrell Owens, who was also reportedly on the organization's radar.
These types of transactions are always accompanied by two questions. Did the team signing the free agent overpay, and what type of impact will they have on the franchise? My first thought was if the Bengals wanted to pay this type of money, why not enter the Anquan Boldin sweepstakes?
On March 5, Arizona dealt Boldin and a 2010 fifth round pick to the Ravens for 2010 third- and fourth-round draft picks. In turn, Baltimore immediately signed Boldin to a four-year, $28 million contract, providing quarterback Joe Flacco with a bona fide No. 1 receiver for the next few years. The Bengals had the picks required to get the deal done, and Baltimore only guaranteed $10 million of Boldin's contract, so it certainly seems like a reasonable deal for a three-time Pro Bowler.
As for Bryant, he appears to be a commodity in the right place at the right time. The lack of a collective bargaining agreement has severely restricted the movement of quality players this offseason, leaving a limited pool of talent that doesn't require compensation. How else can you explain the Bengals forking over $28 million for a receiver with two 1,000-yard seasons under his belt?
Bryant is basically a journeyman as the Bengals represent his fifth team in the past six years, and he carries plenty of baggage on his professional resume.
In 2004, his third season with the Cowboys; Bryant was tossed out of practice after arguing with his position coach (Todd Haley) and receiver Keyshawn Johnson. The situation escalated to the point where he threw his jersey in the face of head coach Bill Parcells, who subsequently traded him to the Cleveland Browns where he spent two years, posting his first 1000-yard season.
In 2006, Bryant parlayed that performance into a free agent contract with the San Francisco 49ers, and eight months later was arrested on drunken driving charges. Shortly thereafter, he was suspended by the NFL for four games due to violating the league's substance abuse policy, missing the final two games of 2006 and was ultimately released by the 49ers after the season.
Bryant sat out the entire 2007 campaign before the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed him to a one-year, $605,000 contract in 2008. The Pittsburgh product made the most of his second chance, posting 83 receptions for 1,248 yards and seven touchdowns. Following the career-year, Tampa Bay tried to negotiate a long-term deal with Bryant, but ended up slapping a $9.884 million franchise tag on him. They didn't get much return on their investment, as Bryant injured his knee in early August and required arthroscopic surgery. As a result, he played in 13 games (11 starts), compiling 39 receptions for 600 yards and four touchdowns.
The details of the guaranteed portion of Bryant's contract haven't been made public, but given the past character issues and balky knee - my first impression is that the Bengals overpaid. Especially when you take into consideration last year's experience with free-agent bust Laveranues Coles, who they inked to (drum roll please) a four-year, $28 million contract.
In my opinion, Cincinnati overpaid but can he help the team? To his credit, Bryant appears to have turned his life around and when healthy has proven he can be an effective and even dominant receiver. On paper, he increases the fantasy stock of quarterback Carson Palmer, and should provide a boost for running back Cedric Benson, as defenses will have to respect the passing game more in 2010. Bryant's arrival should also alleviate the double teams that Chad Ochocinco faces regularly, and even provides the organization with the flexibility to select a pass-catching tight end (Jermaine Gresham, possibly) in the first round of the NFL draft.
Bottom line: If the Bengals get the production of the 2008 version of Bryant (or even the 2005 model) they will likely be thrilled. But it's hardly a slam-dunk, as he has been an underachiever for a large percentage of his career.
These types of transactions are always accompanied by two questions. Did the team signing the free agent overpay, and what type of impact will they have on the franchise? My first thought was if the Bengals wanted to pay this type of money, why not enter the Anquan Boldin sweepstakes?
On March 5, Arizona dealt Boldin and a 2010 fifth round pick to the Ravens for 2010 third- and fourth-round draft picks. In turn, Baltimore immediately signed Boldin to a four-year, $28 million contract, providing quarterback Joe Flacco with a bona fide No. 1 receiver for the next few years. The Bengals had the picks required to get the deal done, and Baltimore only guaranteed $10 million of Boldin's contract, so it certainly seems like a reasonable deal for a three-time Pro Bowler.
As for Bryant, he appears to be a commodity in the right place at the right time. The lack of a collective bargaining agreement has severely restricted the movement of quality players this offseason, leaving a limited pool of talent that doesn't require compensation. How else can you explain the Bengals forking over $28 million for a receiver with two 1,000-yard seasons under his belt?
Bryant is basically a journeyman as the Bengals represent his fifth team in the past six years, and he carries plenty of baggage on his professional resume.
In 2004, his third season with the Cowboys; Bryant was tossed out of practice after arguing with his position coach (Todd Haley) and receiver Keyshawn Johnson. The situation escalated to the point where he threw his jersey in the face of head coach Bill Parcells, who subsequently traded him to the Cleveland Browns where he spent two years, posting his first 1000-yard season.
In 2006, Bryant parlayed that performance into a free agent contract with the San Francisco 49ers, and eight months later was arrested on drunken driving charges. Shortly thereafter, he was suspended by the NFL for four games due to violating the league's substance abuse policy, missing the final two games of 2006 and was ultimately released by the 49ers after the season.
Bryant sat out the entire 2007 campaign before the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed him to a one-year, $605,000 contract in 2008. The Pittsburgh product made the most of his second chance, posting 83 receptions for 1,248 yards and seven touchdowns. Following the career-year, Tampa Bay tried to negotiate a long-term deal with Bryant, but ended up slapping a $9.884 million franchise tag on him. They didn't get much return on their investment, as Bryant injured his knee in early August and required arthroscopic surgery. As a result, he played in 13 games (11 starts), compiling 39 receptions for 600 yards and four touchdowns.
The details of the guaranteed portion of Bryant's contract haven't been made public, but given the past character issues and balky knee - my first impression is that the Bengals overpaid. Especially when you take into consideration last year's experience with free-agent bust Laveranues Coles, who they inked to (drum roll please) a four-year, $28 million contract.
In my opinion, Cincinnati overpaid but can he help the team? To his credit, Bryant appears to have turned his life around and when healthy has proven he can be an effective and even dominant receiver. On paper, he increases the fantasy stock of quarterback Carson Palmer, and should provide a boost for running back Cedric Benson, as defenses will have to respect the passing game more in 2010. Bryant's arrival should also alleviate the double teams that Chad Ochocinco faces regularly, and even provides the organization with the flexibility to select a pass-catching tight end (Jermaine Gresham, possibly) in the first round of the NFL draft.
Bottom line: If the Bengals get the production of the 2008 version of Bryant (or even the 2005 model) they will likely be thrilled. But it's hardly a slam-dunk, as he has been an underachiever for a large percentage of his career.
Top-12 Team Defenses
by Rick Hawes
Posted 3/11/2010 6:06 PM
With the Combine in the rearview mirror and the NFL draft 42 days away, I figured I would start assembling some preliminary rankings for the top-15 quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, as well as top-12 rankings for the tight ends, kickers and team defenses for 2010 redraft leagues.
In the sixth of six installments, we will take a look at the team defenses.
1. Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles have been a top-two team defense in each of the last two years, scoring 14 combined defensive/special teams touchdowns and three safeties. Under first-year defensive coordinator, Sean McDermott, the team continued utilizing the exotic blitz schemes originally implemented by the late Jim Johnson, ranking third in the NFL with 44 sacks.
2. Green Bay Packers - The Packers have been a top-10 team defense in each of the last four seasons, including top-five in 2006, 2007 and 2009. The transition to defensive coordinator Dom Capers' 3-4 scheme went pretty smooth, as Green Bay ranked second in total defense and compiled a league-high 30 interceptions. Also, the Packers have scored 13 defensive/special teams touchdowns and a safety over the last two seasons.
3. New York Jets - The Jets have fielded a top-five fantasy defense in each of the last two seasons, and the future is bright with head coach Rex Ryan and defensive coordinator Mike Pettine running the show. In their first season together in New York, the Jets ranked first in total defense, and over the last two years the team has scored 10 defensive/special teams touchdowns.
4. Baltimore Ravens - Some analysts thought Baltimore would fall from grace in 2009 after Rex Ryan departed to the Big Apple. However, new defensive coordinator Greg Mattison kept the train on the tracks as the Ravens ranked third in total defense and fifth in interceptions with 22, finishing the year as the No. 6 fantasy defense.
5. Minnesota Vikings - The Purple People Eaters have finished top-10 in the team defense rankings during each of the last four seasons, including top-five in 2006 and 2007. Coordinator Leslie Frazier is one of the brightest defensive minds in the NFL, and we expect the Vikings to continue to be one of the top team defenses in fantasy football.
6. San Diego Chargers - The Bolts finished as a top-five fantasy defense in 2006 and 2007 before a middle-of-the-road campaign in 2008, caused mainly by the absence of linebacker Shawne Merriman who missed 15 games with a knee injury. San Diego bounced back in 2009 with a No. 9 finish and they have an abundance of talent in the second and third levels of the defense.
7. San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers team defense jumped from No. 31 in 2007 to No. 23 in 2008 to No. 4 last season, and besides playing in a weak division, get to play all the teams in the AFC West next year. San Francisco ranked fifth in the NFL with 44 sacks, and if they can add a ball hawk in the secondary, could be a staple at the top of the fantasy rankings under the guidance of HC Mike Singletary and DC Greg Manusky.
8. Dallas Cowboys - The Cowpokes have been a top-10 fantasy defense in three of the past four seasons, and the team is loaded with talent in all three levels of the unit. Head coach Wade Phillips, who is one of the most creative 3-4 defensive minds in the game, called the plays in 2009 and the Cowboys have some youthful talent (LB Anthony Spencer, CB Mike Jenkins), who are starting to emerge as big-time playmakers.
9. New York Giants - I expect new defensive coordinator Perry Fewell to be a major difference maker in the City that Never Sleeps, as he's a great coach that gets the most out of his personnel. Given their explosiveness off the edge, the Giants are definitely a candidate to move into the top-10 of fantasy defenses next season, especially if the front office adds a quality linebacker in the second level of the defense, and safety Kenny Phillips returns healthy from microfracture surgery.
10. New Orleans Saints - The Saints ranked 21st or lower in the fantasy rankings in 2007 and 2008, but the addition of defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and free safety Darren Sharper resulted in a No. 1 finish in 2009. New Orleans ranked third in the NFL with 26 interceptions, and had 10 touchdowns on defense/special teams. Keep in mind, those gaudy scoring numbers will be difficult to duplicate, which is why we have them ranked in this spot.
11. Arizona Cardinals - At this point, the trend is set in stone. The Redbirds have fielded a top-10 fantasy defense in each of the past four years. This is a Rodney Dangerfield unit, as you can normally pick Cardinals with the last pick in your draft and they outperform many team defenses selected before them. One thing to keep in mind, the losses of linebacker Karlos Dansby and free safety Antrel Rolle could leave a mark, so keep an eye on this side of the ball in the desert.
12. Chicago Bears - The Bears have finished top-10 in the fantasy rankings in three of the last four seasons, but fell to No. 17 last year due to a litany of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. The front office has already signed defensive end Julius Peppers to bolster the pass rush, and wide receiver Devin Hester is lobbying to play a more prominent role on returns next season, which would obviously be a boon to the output on special teams.
In the sixth of six installments, we will take a look at the team defenses.
1. Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles have been a top-two team defense in each of the last two years, scoring 14 combined defensive/special teams touchdowns and three safeties. Under first-year defensive coordinator, Sean McDermott, the team continued utilizing the exotic blitz schemes originally implemented by the late Jim Johnson, ranking third in the NFL with 44 sacks.
2. Green Bay Packers - The Packers have been a top-10 team defense in each of the last four seasons, including top-five in 2006, 2007 and 2009. The transition to defensive coordinator Dom Capers' 3-4 scheme went pretty smooth, as Green Bay ranked second in total defense and compiled a league-high 30 interceptions. Also, the Packers have scored 13 defensive/special teams touchdowns and a safety over the last two seasons.
3. New York Jets - The Jets have fielded a top-five fantasy defense in each of the last two seasons, and the future is bright with head coach Rex Ryan and defensive coordinator Mike Pettine running the show. In their first season together in New York, the Jets ranked first in total defense, and over the last two years the team has scored 10 defensive/special teams touchdowns.
4. Baltimore Ravens - Some analysts thought Baltimore would fall from grace in 2009 after Rex Ryan departed to the Big Apple. However, new defensive coordinator Greg Mattison kept the train on the tracks as the Ravens ranked third in total defense and fifth in interceptions with 22, finishing the year as the No. 6 fantasy defense.
5. Minnesota Vikings - The Purple People Eaters have finished top-10 in the team defense rankings during each of the last four seasons, including top-five in 2006 and 2007. Coordinator Leslie Frazier is one of the brightest defensive minds in the NFL, and we expect the Vikings to continue to be one of the top team defenses in fantasy football.
6. San Diego Chargers - The Bolts finished as a top-five fantasy defense in 2006 and 2007 before a middle-of-the-road campaign in 2008, caused mainly by the absence of linebacker Shawne Merriman who missed 15 games with a knee injury. San Diego bounced back in 2009 with a No. 9 finish and they have an abundance of talent in the second and third levels of the defense.
7. San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers team defense jumped from No. 31 in 2007 to No. 23 in 2008 to No. 4 last season, and besides playing in a weak division, get to play all the teams in the AFC West next year. San Francisco ranked fifth in the NFL with 44 sacks, and if they can add a ball hawk in the secondary, could be a staple at the top of the fantasy rankings under the guidance of HC Mike Singletary and DC Greg Manusky.
8. Dallas Cowboys - The Cowpokes have been a top-10 fantasy defense in three of the past four seasons, and the team is loaded with talent in all three levels of the unit. Head coach Wade Phillips, who is one of the most creative 3-4 defensive minds in the game, called the plays in 2009 and the Cowboys have some youthful talent (LB Anthony Spencer, CB Mike Jenkins), who are starting to emerge as big-time playmakers.
9. New York Giants - I expect new defensive coordinator Perry Fewell to be a major difference maker in the City that Never Sleeps, as he's a great coach that gets the most out of his personnel. Given their explosiveness off the edge, the Giants are definitely a candidate to move into the top-10 of fantasy defenses next season, especially if the front office adds a quality linebacker in the second level of the defense, and safety Kenny Phillips returns healthy from microfracture surgery.
10. New Orleans Saints - The Saints ranked 21st or lower in the fantasy rankings in 2007 and 2008, but the addition of defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and free safety Darren Sharper resulted in a No. 1 finish in 2009. New Orleans ranked third in the NFL with 26 interceptions, and had 10 touchdowns on defense/special teams. Keep in mind, those gaudy scoring numbers will be difficult to duplicate, which is why we have them ranked in this spot.
11. Arizona Cardinals - At this point, the trend is set in stone. The Redbirds have fielded a top-10 fantasy defense in each of the past four years. This is a Rodney Dangerfield unit, as you can normally pick Cardinals with the last pick in your draft and they outperform many team defenses selected before them. One thing to keep in mind, the losses of linebacker Karlos Dansby and free safety Antrel Rolle could leave a mark, so keep an eye on this side of the ball in the desert.
12. Chicago Bears - The Bears have finished top-10 in the fantasy rankings in three of the last four seasons, but fell to No. 17 last year due to a litany of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. The front office has already signed defensive end Julius Peppers to bolster the pass rush, and wide receiver Devin Hester is lobbying to play a more prominent role on returns next season, which would obviously be a boon to the output on special teams.
Top-12 Kickers
by Rick Hawes
Posted 3/10/2010 10:25 AM
With the Combine in the rearview mirror and the NFL draft 43 days away, I figured I would start assembling some preliminary rankings for the top-15 quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, as well as top-12 rankings for the tight ends, kickers and team defenses for 2010 redraft leagues.
In the fifth of six installments, we will take a look at the kicker position because despite what you've heard - kickers are people too!
Note: The ages listed in this blog entry reflect the players' age at the beginning of the 2010 regular season.
1. Rob Bironas, TEN, Age: 32 - The five-year veteran has finished as a top-five fantasy kicker in each of the last three seasons, a feat no other kicker can claim. In 2009, Bironas converted 27-of-32 field goals, including 10-of-12 from 40-49 yards and 5-of-6 from 50+ yards.
2. Stephen Gostkowski, NE, Age: 27 - The Memphis product was an All-Pro in 2008, and posted another solid year in 2009, converting 26-of-31 field goals, while nailing all 47 of his extra point attempts. He has finished as a top-seven fantasy kicker in each of the last three years, so he's a very safe option.
3. David Akers, PHI, Age: 35 - Akers is getting a little long in the tooth, but he has been a top-two fantasy kicker in each of the last two seasons. In 2009, he was cash money from 40-49 yards, converting 11-of-13 field goals from this distance.
4. Nate Kaeding, SD, Age: 28 - In 2009, Kaeding was the No. 1 kicker in fantasy football, converting 32-of-35 field goals and 50-of-51 extra points. However, the season ended on a down note as he missed three kicks (36, 57 and 40 yards) in the 17-14 loss to the New York Jets during the divisional round of the playoffs. The misses were shocking, considering Kaeding had made 20 consecutive field goals heading into the game, including an NFL record 69 without a miss from 40 yards or closer.
5. Ryan Longwell, MIN, Age: 36 - The 13-year veteran has been a top-four fantasy kicker in each of the last two years, and possesses excellent long-range accuracy, converting 24-of-29 field goals from 40-49 yards and 9-of-12 from 50+ yards over the last three seasons.
6. Garrett Hartley, NO, Age: 24 - In 2008, Hartley played in eight games and was perfect converting 13-of-13 field goals and 28-of-28 extra points. The 2009 campaign got off to a rough start when he received a four-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy. The Saints finally activated Hartley in Weeks 13-17, and he responded by converting 9-of-11 field goals down the stretch. He also nailed the game-winning 40-yard kick in overtime during the NFC Championship game, which sealed the Saints first-ever visit to the Super Bowl.
7. Mason Crosby, GB, Age: 26 - The Colorado product has finished as a top-eight fantasy kicker in each of the last two years, but he struggled in 2009, converting only 27-of-36 kicks resulting in a woeful 75.0 percent success rate. In 2007 and 2008, Crosby also missed 15 combined kicks, so he's on the hot seat and the Packers could bring in competition during the offseason.
8. Robbie Gould, CHI, Age: 28 - During his five-year career, Gould has converted 85.9 percent of his field goals, making him one of the more reliable kickers in the league. He has finished top-12 in the fantasy rankings in two of the last three seasons. But it would be nice to see him get more chances, as Gould has only attempted 57 field goals in the past two years. Chicago has hired Mike Martz to coordinate the offense, so perhaps the Bears can provide Gould with additional opportunities in 2010.
9. Matt Prater, DEN, Age: 26 - In 2008, Prater struggled mightily missing nine kicks, but he bounced back in 2009, converting 30-of-35 field goals and 32-of-32 extra points. As a result, he finished as the No. 8 fantasy kicker, and saved his job for 2010 in the process.
10. Dan Carpenter, MIA, Age: 24 - In two seasons as the Dolphins kicker, Carpenter has established himself as a reliable option, converting 46-of-53 field goals for an 86.8 percent success rate.
11. Lawrence Tynes, NYG, Age: 32 - Over the last two seasons, the Giants place kicker has finished as a top-10 fantasy option. In 2008, John Carney ranked No.3, and last season Tynes was the No. 9 fantasy kicker, converting 27-of-32 attempts and 45-of-45 extra points.
12. Kris Brown, HOU, Age: 33 - In 2009, the 11-year veteran had the worst year of his career, missing 11-of-32 attempts resulting in a woeful 65.6 percent success rate. Brown also missed clutch kicks that would have forced overtime in losses to Indianapolis and Tennessee, meaning the Texans will likely bring in someone off the street to compete for the job next season. Keep in mind, he was a top-nine fantasy kicker in 2007 and 2008 - so if Brown can retain the job - he has been a decent option in the past.
In the fifth of six installments, we will take a look at the kicker position because despite what you've heard - kickers are people too!
Note: The ages listed in this blog entry reflect the players' age at the beginning of the 2010 regular season.
1. Rob Bironas, TEN, Age: 32 - The five-year veteran has finished as a top-five fantasy kicker in each of the last three seasons, a feat no other kicker can claim. In 2009, Bironas converted 27-of-32 field goals, including 10-of-12 from 40-49 yards and 5-of-6 from 50+ yards.
2. Stephen Gostkowski, NE, Age: 27 - The Memphis product was an All-Pro in 2008, and posted another solid year in 2009, converting 26-of-31 field goals, while nailing all 47 of his extra point attempts. He has finished as a top-seven fantasy kicker in each of the last three years, so he's a very safe option.
3. David Akers, PHI, Age: 35 - Akers is getting a little long in the tooth, but he has been a top-two fantasy kicker in each of the last two seasons. In 2009, he was cash money from 40-49 yards, converting 11-of-13 field goals from this distance.
4. Nate Kaeding, SD, Age: 28 - In 2009, Kaeding was the No. 1 kicker in fantasy football, converting 32-of-35 field goals and 50-of-51 extra points. However, the season ended on a down note as he missed three kicks (36, 57 and 40 yards) in the 17-14 loss to the New York Jets during the divisional round of the playoffs. The misses were shocking, considering Kaeding had made 20 consecutive field goals heading into the game, including an NFL record 69 without a miss from 40 yards or closer.
5. Ryan Longwell, MIN, Age: 36 - The 13-year veteran has been a top-four fantasy kicker in each of the last two years, and possesses excellent long-range accuracy, converting 24-of-29 field goals from 40-49 yards and 9-of-12 from 50+ yards over the last three seasons.
6. Garrett Hartley, NO, Age: 24 - In 2008, Hartley played in eight games and was perfect converting 13-of-13 field goals and 28-of-28 extra points. The 2009 campaign got off to a rough start when he received a four-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy. The Saints finally activated Hartley in Weeks 13-17, and he responded by converting 9-of-11 field goals down the stretch. He also nailed the game-winning 40-yard kick in overtime during the NFC Championship game, which sealed the Saints first-ever visit to the Super Bowl.
7. Mason Crosby, GB, Age: 26 - The Colorado product has finished as a top-eight fantasy kicker in each of the last two years, but he struggled in 2009, converting only 27-of-36 kicks resulting in a woeful 75.0 percent success rate. In 2007 and 2008, Crosby also missed 15 combined kicks, so he's on the hot seat and the Packers could bring in competition during the offseason.
8. Robbie Gould, CHI, Age: 28 - During his five-year career, Gould has converted 85.9 percent of his field goals, making him one of the more reliable kickers in the league. He has finished top-12 in the fantasy rankings in two of the last three seasons. But it would be nice to see him get more chances, as Gould has only attempted 57 field goals in the past two years. Chicago has hired Mike Martz to coordinate the offense, so perhaps the Bears can provide Gould with additional opportunities in 2010.
9. Matt Prater, DEN, Age: 26 - In 2008, Prater struggled mightily missing nine kicks, but he bounced back in 2009, converting 30-of-35 field goals and 32-of-32 extra points. As a result, he finished as the No. 8 fantasy kicker, and saved his job for 2010 in the process.
10. Dan Carpenter, MIA, Age: 24 - In two seasons as the Dolphins kicker, Carpenter has established himself as a reliable option, converting 46-of-53 field goals for an 86.8 percent success rate.
11. Lawrence Tynes, NYG, Age: 32 - Over the last two seasons, the Giants place kicker has finished as a top-10 fantasy option. In 2008, John Carney ranked No.3, and last season Tynes was the No. 9 fantasy kicker, converting 27-of-32 attempts and 45-of-45 extra points.
12. Kris Brown, HOU, Age: 33 - In 2009, the 11-year veteran had the worst year of his career, missing 11-of-32 attempts resulting in a woeful 65.6 percent success rate. Brown also missed clutch kicks that would have forced overtime in losses to Indianapolis and Tennessee, meaning the Texans will likely bring in someone off the street to compete for the job next season. Keep in mind, he was a top-nine fantasy kicker in 2007 and 2008 - so if Brown can retain the job - he has been a decent option in the past.
Top-12 Redraft Tight Ends
by Rick Hawes
Posted 3/9/2010 10:06 AM
With the Combine in the rearview mirror and the NFL draft 44 days away, I figured I would start assembling some preliminary rankings for the top-15 quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, as well as top-12 rankings for the tight ends, kickers and team defenses for 2010 redraft leagues.
In the fourth of six installments, we will take a look at the tight end position.
Note: The ages listed in this blog entry reflect the players' age at the beginning of the 2010 regular season.
1. Antonio Gates, SD, Age: 30 - The Kent State product notched the second-best season in his career, posting 79 receptions for 1,157 yards and eight touchdowns. Gates has scored eight or more touchdowns in each of the past six seasons, totaling 57 during this period.
2. Dallas Clark, IND, Age: 31 - The seven-year veteran compiled 100 receptions for 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns, becoming only the second tight end (Tony Gonzalez) to break the century barrier for catches in a single season. The reception and yardage digits were both career highs, and Clark has rocked double-digit touchdowns in two of the last three years.
3. Jason Witten, DAL, Age: 28 - Despite hauling in 94 receptions for 1,030 yards, fantasy owners either loved or hated the stud tight end in 2009. If you were in a PPR league, it was a love relationship as Witten had five or more catches in 13 of 17 games, making him a pretty consistent weekly contributor. If you were in a basic-scoring league, then you came away hating him due to the grand total of two touchdowns. Hopefully, you fell on the PPR side of the house, as Witten has been a top-five tight end in this format during each of the last three seasons.
4. Vernon Davis, SF, Age: 26 - Heading into the 2009 season, Davis was considered a perennial sleeper, who had never delivered on his immense promise. All of that changed last season, as the four-year veteran broke out with 78 receptions for 965 yards and 13 touchdowns. Those digits represented career highs across the board, and he tied the NFL single-season record for scoring receptions by a tight end, which Antonio Gates set in 2004.
5. Brent Celek, PHI, Age: 25 - In the last 22 games (including the playoffs), Celek has compiled 101 receptions for 1,211 yards and 12 touchdowns. At 6-foot-4 and 255 pounds, he combines the toughness to break tackles leading to solid yardage after the catch totals, with the ability to stretch the seam and make plays downfield. In other words, he is the total receiving package in an explosive offense.
6. Jermichael Finley, GB, Age: 23 - Despite missing three games due to a knee injury, Finley hauled in 55 receptions for 676 yards and five touchdowns. In Weeks 11-17, the Texas product had four or more receptions five times, and was a top-five tight end during this period. Bottom line: Finley is on the fast track to becoming a fantasy stud in all scoring formats.
7. Tony Gonzalez, ATL, Age: 34 - After finishing as a top-two tight end in 2007 and 2008, Gonzalez fell to No. 6 in 2009. During his first season in Atlanta, the 13-year veteran notched 83 receptions for 867 yards and six scores. Gonzo needs one reception to reach 1,000 for his career, and has already said he will return for his 14th NFL season. He's still a viable weapon due to his precise route running, and ability to find the soft spots in zone coverage.
8. Kellen Winslow, TB, Age: 27 - Prior to the 2009 season, Tampa Bay traded two draft picks to Cleveland for Winslow, who played in 16 games (14 starts) reeling in 77 receptions for a franchise-record (for a tight end) 884 yards and five touchdowns. He led the Bucs in all three categories and with Antonio Bryant's release, could turn the trick again in 2010.
9. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN, Age: 30 - Over the last two seasons, Shiancoe has blossomed in Minnesota, combining for 98 receptions, 1,162 yards and 18 touchdowns. He is known for having an outstanding work ethic and is very capable of running routes designed for wide receivers. The seven-year veteran is a stud in basic-scoring leagues, and he has finished top-nine amongst tight ends over the last two seasons in PPR formats.
10. Owen Daniels, HOU, Age: 27 - Prior to going down in Week 8 with a torn ACL in his right knee, Daniels was the second-ranked tight end in the fantasy world, and on pace for 80 receptions, 1,038 yards and 10 touchdowns. The reconstructive surgery occurred early in November so Daniels should be ready for May mini-camps, depending on how his rehabilitation goes.
11. John Carlson, SEA, Age: 26 - Carlson fell from the No. 7 tight end in 2008 to No. 13 in 2009, based largely on the fact that he was utilized more as a blocker than receiver early in the season due to the Seahawks offensive line woes. He did score four times in the final four games of the season, giving him a total of 12 touchdowns in his first two years. If the Seahawks can fix the O-line, Carlson, who has displayed plenty of promise, could be a larger part of the offense and a value pick.
12. Zach Miller, OAK, Age: 24 - Miller (66-805-3) has increased his reception and yardage totals in each of the last two seasons, and if he had an NFL quality quarterback, would probably make a few more trips to the end zone. Despite playing catch with JaMarcus Russell, Miller has been a top-12 tight end the last two years - so the upside is in place - if the Raiders can solve the riddle that is their quarterback position.
In the fourth of six installments, we will take a look at the tight end position.
Note: The ages listed in this blog entry reflect the players' age at the beginning of the 2010 regular season.
1. Antonio Gates, SD, Age: 30 - The Kent State product notched the second-best season in his career, posting 79 receptions for 1,157 yards and eight touchdowns. Gates has scored eight or more touchdowns in each of the past six seasons, totaling 57 during this period.
2. Dallas Clark, IND, Age: 31 - The seven-year veteran compiled 100 receptions for 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns, becoming only the second tight end (Tony Gonzalez) to break the century barrier for catches in a single season. The reception and yardage digits were both career highs, and Clark has rocked double-digit touchdowns in two of the last three years.
3. Jason Witten, DAL, Age: 28 - Despite hauling in 94 receptions for 1,030 yards, fantasy owners either loved or hated the stud tight end in 2009. If you were in a PPR league, it was a love relationship as Witten had five or more catches in 13 of 17 games, making him a pretty consistent weekly contributor. If you were in a basic-scoring league, then you came away hating him due to the grand total of two touchdowns. Hopefully, you fell on the PPR side of the house, as Witten has been a top-five tight end in this format during each of the last three seasons.
4. Vernon Davis, SF, Age: 26 - Heading into the 2009 season, Davis was considered a perennial sleeper, who had never delivered on his immense promise. All of that changed last season, as the four-year veteran broke out with 78 receptions for 965 yards and 13 touchdowns. Those digits represented career highs across the board, and he tied the NFL single-season record for scoring receptions by a tight end, which Antonio Gates set in 2004.
5. Brent Celek, PHI, Age: 25 - In the last 22 games (including the playoffs), Celek has compiled 101 receptions for 1,211 yards and 12 touchdowns. At 6-foot-4 and 255 pounds, he combines the toughness to break tackles leading to solid yardage after the catch totals, with the ability to stretch the seam and make plays downfield. In other words, he is the total receiving package in an explosive offense.
6. Jermichael Finley, GB, Age: 23 - Despite missing three games due to a knee injury, Finley hauled in 55 receptions for 676 yards and five touchdowns. In Weeks 11-17, the Texas product had four or more receptions five times, and was a top-five tight end during this period. Bottom line: Finley is on the fast track to becoming a fantasy stud in all scoring formats.
7. Tony Gonzalez, ATL, Age: 34 - After finishing as a top-two tight end in 2007 and 2008, Gonzalez fell to No. 6 in 2009. During his first season in Atlanta, the 13-year veteran notched 83 receptions for 867 yards and six scores. Gonzo needs one reception to reach 1,000 for his career, and has already said he will return for his 14th NFL season. He's still a viable weapon due to his precise route running, and ability to find the soft spots in zone coverage.
8. Kellen Winslow, TB, Age: 27 - Prior to the 2009 season, Tampa Bay traded two draft picks to Cleveland for Winslow, who played in 16 games (14 starts) reeling in 77 receptions for a franchise-record (for a tight end) 884 yards and five touchdowns. He led the Bucs in all three categories and with Antonio Bryant's release, could turn the trick again in 2010.
9. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN, Age: 30 - Over the last two seasons, Shiancoe has blossomed in Minnesota, combining for 98 receptions, 1,162 yards and 18 touchdowns. He is known for having an outstanding work ethic and is very capable of running routes designed for wide receivers. The seven-year veteran is a stud in basic-scoring leagues, and he has finished top-nine amongst tight ends over the last two seasons in PPR formats.
10. Owen Daniels, HOU, Age: 27 - Prior to going down in Week 8 with a torn ACL in his right knee, Daniels was the second-ranked tight end in the fantasy world, and on pace for 80 receptions, 1,038 yards and 10 touchdowns. The reconstructive surgery occurred early in November so Daniels should be ready for May mini-camps, depending on how his rehabilitation goes.
11. John Carlson, SEA, Age: 26 - Carlson fell from the No. 7 tight end in 2008 to No. 13 in 2009, based largely on the fact that he was utilized more as a blocker than receiver early in the season due to the Seahawks offensive line woes. He did score four times in the final four games of the season, giving him a total of 12 touchdowns in his first two years. If the Seahawks can fix the O-line, Carlson, who has displayed plenty of promise, could be a larger part of the offense and a value pick.
12. Zach Miller, OAK, Age: 24 - Miller (66-805-3) has increased his reception and yardage totals in each of the last two seasons, and if he had an NFL quality quarterback, would probably make a few more trips to the end zone. Despite playing catch with JaMarcus Russell, Miller has been a top-12 tight end the last two years - so the upside is in place - if the Raiders can solve the riddle that is their quarterback position.
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