Cup Preview: Daytona 500
By Brian Polking
February 8, 2010 8:30am CST
The 2010 Sprint Cup season officially begins with the 52nd running of "The Great American Race" this Sunday. The aura and mystique that the Daytona 500 holds is unmatched in the world of stock car racing, and every driver dreams of having the Harley J. Earl trophy sitting on their mantel. However, the race has a bit of a different aura among fantasy owners because a trip to the always unpredictable Daytona International Speedway can be an unforgiving way to start the year.
Multi-car pileups were already a staple of the 2.5-mile track, and NASCAR's decision to eliminate bump-drafting regulations isn't likely to calm things down. Between two practice session for the Budweiser Shootout and the race itself, there has already a six-car and an eight-car incident. When you consider that only 24 cars were racing at the time, owners can't be too optimistic about the outcome when 43 drivers hit the track.
It is simply impossible to ask 43 drivers to run three-wide at 200 mph for 200 laps and not have something go wrong. One slight bobble by any driver can cause problems for a dozen others. Wrecks can happen at the front of the pack, at the rear and everywhere in between. Last season alone, Kyle Busch was wrecked twice at Daytona while leading.
Owners were spared some of the carnage at the Daytona 500 last season courtesy of Mother Nature. Rain forced the race to be called after 152 of the 200 laps, handing Matt Kenseth the victory and saving fantasy owners from the chaos the tends to unfold starting about lap 190. Don't expect another calm finish this Sunday.
Fantasy owners have their work cut out for them right of the bat. Daytona can decimate a fantasy squad in an instance, and there is no such thing as a safe pick. With the possible exception of Talladega Superspeedway, Daytona may just be the toughest track on the schedule for fantasy owners.
The Favorites
Coming off a stellar first season as an owner/driver, Tony Stewart once again has a chance to capture a Daytona 500 win that has slipped away so many times before. "Smoke" is a three-time winner of the July event, including last year's race, and has been within a lap of winning the 500. Stewart has nine top 10s in his last 12 Daytona starts, and owners better believe he will go all out to get to victory lane.
The king of consistency at Daytona in recent years has been Kurt Busch. He has tallied five straight top 10s at the track, including four top-five finishes. Busch has never won at a restrictor-plate track, but he is always near the front. It is only a matter of time before he cashes in.
Kyle Busch was dominating last year's Daytona 500 until he was caught up in an accident between a couple of lap-down cars, and he was a few hundred feet away from winning at Daytona in July before Stewart sent him into the outside wall. Owners shouldn't let last year's results overshadow Busch's ability for getting to the front of the field at Daytona. In his three races at Daytona prior to 2009, he finished second, fourth and first.
The Dark Horses
Although Matt Kenseth's victory in the Daytona 500 last season was a definite surprise, owners shouldn't rule out a repeat performance. In his last three starts at Daytona, Kenseth has compiled a 4.0 finishing average. That being said, the last driver to win back-to-back Daytona 500s was Sterling Marlin in 1994 and 1995.
It's a make-or-break year for David Ragan's career, and there isn't a better track on the schedule for him to start off. He has finished 13th or better in five of his six Daytona starts, and his 13.8 finishing average is the third best among active drivers. Ragan's sixth-place finish in this race a year ago was his best run all season.
With his second career Budweiser Shootout win under his belt already, Kevin Harvick can now focus on winning his second Daytona 500. The 2007 winner finished second in last year's race and has finished in the top 15 in three of the last four Daytona events. Harvick will try to become the first driver since Dale Jarrett in 2000 to win the Budweiser Shootout and Daytona 500 in the same season.
The Sleepers
Marcos Ambrose opened some eyes with his performance last season, and it all began with a 17th-place in his first ever Daytona 500. He followed that up with a sixth-place finish in the July Daytona event, giving him an 11.5 finishing average at the 2.5-mile track. Ambrose has been tabbed as a possible Chase contender in 2010, and a strong run to start the year would help validate those claims.
In the fantasy world, it's all about solid results, and that is exactly what Elliott Sadler provides at Daytona. He finished in the top 10 at both Daytona events in 2009 and has six top-10 finishes in his last eight starts at the track. With little fantasy elsewhere, Sadler is a perfect candidate for weekly driver pick 'em leagues.
It has been a while since the No. 43 went to victory lane at Daytona, but A.J. Allmendinger will try to change that this year. After racing his way into the Daytona 500 last season, Allmendinger scored a career best third-place finish. He followed that up with a 17th-place finish in the July event. Richard Petty Motorsports made several changes in the offseason to put Allmendinger in a position to succeed, and now its up to him to capitalize.
Struggling Drivers
Fortunately for Denny Hamlin, Daytona is not one of the tracks on the Chase schedule as he tries to dethrone Jimmie Johnson. In eight career starts at the track, he has just one finish inside the top 15. Hamlin is coming off a career best third-place effort in last season's July event, but he still has some work to do to improve his 23.8 career finishing average.
Restrictor-plate racing and Mark Martin just don't seem to mix. Even during his impressive return to full-time racing last season, he posted a dismal 31.2 finishing average at the four superspeedway events. Although he did win the pole for the Daytona 500 for the first time in his career this past Saturday, he also tore up two cars between practice sessions for the Budweiser Shootout and the race itself.
Things have gone downhill for Greg Biffle at Daytona ever since he won his first career Cup race at the track in 2003. He has just two top 10s in 12 starts since then, including seven finishes of 25th or worse. When the "Big One" begins, Biffle usually ends up in it.
Multi-car pileups were already a staple of the 2.5-mile track, and NASCAR's decision to eliminate bump-drafting regulations isn't likely to calm things down. Between two practice session for the Budweiser Shootout and the race itself, there has already a six-car and an eight-car incident. When you consider that only 24 cars were racing at the time, owners can't be too optimistic about the outcome when 43 drivers hit the track.
It is simply impossible to ask 43 drivers to run three-wide at 200 mph for 200 laps and not have something go wrong. One slight bobble by any driver can cause problems for a dozen others. Wrecks can happen at the front of the pack, at the rear and everywhere in between. Last season alone, Kyle Busch was wrecked twice at Daytona while leading.
Owners were spared some of the carnage at the Daytona 500 last season courtesy of Mother Nature. Rain forced the race to be called after 152 of the 200 laps, handing Matt Kenseth the victory and saving fantasy owners from the chaos the tends to unfold starting about lap 190. Don't expect another calm finish this Sunday.
Fantasy owners have their work cut out for them right of the bat. Daytona can decimate a fantasy squad in an instance, and there is no such thing as a safe pick. With the possible exception of Talladega Superspeedway, Daytona may just be the toughest track on the schedule for fantasy owners.
The Favorites
Coming off a stellar first season as an owner/driver, Tony Stewart once again has a chance to capture a Daytona 500 win that has slipped away so many times before. "Smoke" is a three-time winner of the July event, including last year's race, and has been within a lap of winning the 500. Stewart has nine top 10s in his last 12 Daytona starts, and owners better believe he will go all out to get to victory lane.
The king of consistency at Daytona in recent years has been Kurt Busch. He has tallied five straight top 10s at the track, including four top-five finishes. Busch has never won at a restrictor-plate track, but he is always near the front. It is only a matter of time before he cashes in.
Kyle Busch was dominating last year's Daytona 500 until he was caught up in an accident between a couple of lap-down cars, and he was a few hundred feet away from winning at Daytona in July before Stewart sent him into the outside wall. Owners shouldn't let last year's results overshadow Busch's ability for getting to the front of the field at Daytona. In his three races at Daytona prior to 2009, he finished second, fourth and first.
The Dark Horses
Although Matt Kenseth's victory in the Daytona 500 last season was a definite surprise, owners shouldn't rule out a repeat performance. In his last three starts at Daytona, Kenseth has compiled a 4.0 finishing average. That being said, the last driver to win back-to-back Daytona 500s was Sterling Marlin in 1994 and 1995.
It's a make-or-break year for David Ragan's career, and there isn't a better track on the schedule for him to start off. He has finished 13th or better in five of his six Daytona starts, and his 13.8 finishing average is the third best among active drivers. Ragan's sixth-place finish in this race a year ago was his best run all season.
With his second career Budweiser Shootout win under his belt already, Kevin Harvick can now focus on winning his second Daytona 500. The 2007 winner finished second in last year's race and has finished in the top 15 in three of the last four Daytona events. Harvick will try to become the first driver since Dale Jarrett in 2000 to win the Budweiser Shootout and Daytona 500 in the same season.
The Sleepers
Marcos Ambrose opened some eyes with his performance last season, and it all began with a 17th-place in his first ever Daytona 500. He followed that up with a sixth-place finish in the July Daytona event, giving him an 11.5 finishing average at the 2.5-mile track. Ambrose has been tabbed as a possible Chase contender in 2010, and a strong run to start the year would help validate those claims.
In the fantasy world, it's all about solid results, and that is exactly what Elliott Sadler provides at Daytona. He finished in the top 10 at both Daytona events in 2009 and has six top-10 finishes in his last eight starts at the track. With little fantasy elsewhere, Sadler is a perfect candidate for weekly driver pick 'em leagues.
It has been a while since the No. 43 went to victory lane at Daytona, but A.J. Allmendinger will try to change that this year. After racing his way into the Daytona 500 last season, Allmendinger scored a career best third-place finish. He followed that up with a 17th-place finish in the July event. Richard Petty Motorsports made several changes in the offseason to put Allmendinger in a position to succeed, and now its up to him to capitalize.
Struggling Drivers
Fortunately for Denny Hamlin, Daytona is not one of the tracks on the Chase schedule as he tries to dethrone Jimmie Johnson. In eight career starts at the track, he has just one finish inside the top 15. Hamlin is coming off a career best third-place effort in last season's July event, but he still has some work to do to improve his 23.8 career finishing average.
Restrictor-plate racing and Mark Martin just don't seem to mix. Even during his impressive return to full-time racing last season, he posted a dismal 31.2 finishing average at the four superspeedway events. Although he did win the pole for the Daytona 500 for the first time in his career this past Saturday, he also tore up two cars between practice sessions for the Budweiser Shootout and the race itself.
Things have gone downhill for Greg Biffle at Daytona ever since he won his first career Cup race at the track in 2003. He has just two top 10s in 12 starts since then, including seven finishes of 25th or worse. When the "Big One" begins, Biffle usually ends up in it.
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