Blogs

Two to Tango

By Danny Goldin
July 31, 2009 6:10pm CDT

Each week, we'll profile the projected two-start pitchers for the upcoming fantasy week (August 3-9). Keep in mind that these are subject to change if managers adjust their rotations over the weekend due to injuries or inclement weather.

SAFE BETS

Zack Greinke (KC): at TB (S. Kazmir); vs OAK (B. Anderson) - He may be 0-3 over his last five starts, but he's also on a stretch of seven-straight quality starts. He's still struck out over a batter an inning this season and has the best ERA (2.08) in the majors.

Matt Cain (SF): at HOU (M. Hampton); vs CIN (A. Harang) - Cain is not far behind Greinke, leading the NL with a 2.12 ERA and a nifty 12-2 record. Cain may find it tough to be quite as dominant going forward as he's been thus far, but his organization also gave him a bit more offensive support with this week's additions of Ryan Garko and Freddy Sanchez.

Justin Verlander (DET): vs BAL (TBA); vs MIN (S. Baker) - A must-play regardless of matchups at this point, Verlander has been especially dominant at home, where he's gone 7-0 with a 1.15 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.

Josh Johnson (FLA): at WAS (J. Martin); at PHI (J. Moyer) - The big righty has been dominant all year long and has given up just one run in 15 career innings at Philadelphia's Citzens Bank Ballpark. He's won three straight and faces two starters that his Marlins should be able to put up runs against.

Johan Santana (NYM): vs STL (J. Pineiro); at SD (T. Stauffer) - Don't mess with success. Johan has three seven-inning shutout in his last four starts and remains the cream of the crop when it comes to second-half stud pitchers.

Dan Haren (ARZ): at NYM (TBA); at WAS (G. Mock) - To the shock of nobody, Haren's inevitable second-half slide already appears to be underway, as he's given up 16 baserunners and six runs over just 10 innings his past two starts. Still, the matchups next week couldn't be much better, at the spacious Citi Field against a to-be-announced Mets starter and against Washington with the shaky Mock on the mound. Feel safe, at least for next week.

Joba Chamberlain (NYY): at TOR (TBA); vs BOS (B. Penny) - He hasn't been excellent against either Boston or Toronto this year or over his career, but Joba has been pitching like a new man of late, having gone 3-0 over a dominant three-game stretch. He could keep that win streak alive against whoever Toronto opts to send to the mound and a struggling Penny.

Javier Vazquez (ATL): at SD (T. Stauffer); at LAD (H. Kuroda) - Vazquez remains a machine atop the Braves' staff who's been excellent in every category other than wins. Expect the excellence to keep on coming in two pitcher-friendly venues.

John Lackey (LAA): at CWS (J. Contreras); vs TEX (D. Holland) - Lackey has gone 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in the month of July, this despite one rough six-run outing at the beginning (which did happen to be against the Rangers). When he's in a groove, he's a true ace, and in a groove he is.

Clayton Kershaw (LAD): vs MLW (M. Parra); vs ATL (K. Kawakami) - I still say sell high on Kershaw if you can, but that doesn't me he doesn't make for an excellent play this week. He gets two home starts, where he's tossed a 1.75 ERA and 1.18 WHIP while striking out over a batter per inning. He was also able to make it into the eighth inning for the first time all season his last time out, so maybe Joe Torre is bumping his pitch count up a bit.

Yovani Gallardo (MLW): at LAD (H. Kuroda); at HOU (M. Hampton) - Gallardo has given up 13 runs over 19 innings in three combined starts this season against his two opponents next week, but he's simply been too solid in every category all year long not to play. Gallardo may not receive a second start on the week if the Brewers call up a fifth starter, though they can afford not to with a day off on Thursday, and Gallardo is a must-start regardless.

NEXT BEST THINGS

Scott Kazmir (TB): vs KC (Z. Greinke); at SEA (R. Rowland-Smith) - Kazmir has mixed four fine turns with two rough ones since his return from the DL in late June. He is, however, coming off a fine turn against the Yankees and gets two offenses he should be able to handle in Kansas City and Seattle.

Zach Duke (PIT): vs ARZ (Y. Petit); vs STL (J. Pineiro) - Duke has continued to deal this season and is coming off a seven-inning shutout of the Giants. He's also been especially useful at home thus far with a 3.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Feel safe with him this week, even though he may not please you with the strikeout numbers.

Scott Baker (MIN): at CLE (D. Huff); at DET (J. Verlander) - Baker has looked good his last three starts, giving up just four runs with 20 strikeouts over 19 innings. While his WHIP has been worse on the road this season, his ERA has surprisingly been a full run better, so keep that in mind, but also keep in mind that he's tended to flop just when you thought you could trust him a few times this year.

Joel Pineiro (STL): at NYM (J. Santana); at PIT (Z. Duke) - Pineiro continues to defy the odds and log quality start after quality start, as he's on a streak of nine-straight such outings. Still, he does face two fine starters and got shelled by Pittsburgh earlier in the year, though he's also been superb against the Mets over two starts this season. He should be fine next week as long as you can handle the lack of strikeouts.

Jarrod Washburn (DET): vs BAL (C. Tillman); vs MIN (G. Perkins) - It's always a bit of a risk to go with a pitcher in their first time on the mound in a new uniform, and even more so in Washburn's case, with two starts at home, which is no longer the pitcher-friendly Safeco Field for him. Still, the 2.54 ERA and 1.07 WHIP this year are too good to ignore, and the wins should start to come more easily.

Randy Wells (CHC): at CIN (A. Harang); at COL (J. Hammel) - Wells appears well on his way toward the NL Rookie of the Year honors with an ERA below three and a 7-1 record in his last eight starts. He's close to receiving must-start status, especially when he's due to go twice, although you can't feel too comfortable when he's going at two of the premier hitting parks in the league.

Mat Latos (SD): vs ATL (K. Kawakami); vs NYM (O. Perez) - Latos has been great in his three starts since receiving the promotion. Expect him to be fine with two starts at home and possibly increase his two-game win streak.

Luke Hochevar (KC): vs SEA (R. Rowland-Smith); vs OAK (G. Gonzalez) - Hochevar had been mostly great since the start of June prior to giving up seven runs on Thursday, but keep in mind that was at Baltimore on the road, where he's been far worse (7.41 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 4.76 K/9) than at home (3.59 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.17 K/9), so I expect this former No. 1 overall pick to bounce right back with two fine turns at Kauffman Stadium. Be aware, however, that a possible return to from the DL by Gil Meche (back) could bump Hochevar's second start back a day into the following week.

Hiroki Kuroda (LAD): vs MLW (Y. Gallardo); vs ATL (J. Vazquez) - After a rough few outings, it looks like Kuroda may have finally gotten things back on track with two fine performances. He has it in him to be a viable fantasy option the rest of the season going forward, though don't expect a win against either Gallardo or Vazquez.

AT YOUR OWN RISK

Aaron Harang (CIN): vs CHC (R. Wells); at SF (M. Cain) - I really see better days in Harang's horizon, but 19 runs over his last 23 innings can't instill the most confidence for next week, especially when he's facing two men that each have sub-3.00 ERAs.

Yusmeiro Petit (ARZ): at PIT (Z. Duke); at WAS (J. Martin) - It's tough to promote a guy with a 6.75 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on the season, though Petit hasn't been quite as bad on the road, and you have to love his matchups next week. You can certainly do worse.

Kenshin Kawakami (ATL): at SD (M. Latos); at LAD (C. Kershaw) - He's coming off a rough outing and faces two up-and-coming young hurlers, though Kawakami was solid in his previous three, and gets both starts next week in pitcher-friendly venues. He's definitely a risk, but the reward could be nice.

Jose Contreras (CWS): vs LAA (J. Lackey); vs CLE (D. Huff) - It's no secret that Contreras is no more than a back-of-the-rotation big league starter, and he's expectedly fallen back down to earth over his past three turns after a nice initial stretch following a minor league stint. The Angels have toted the hottest bats in baseball, so beware.

Jamie Moyer (PHI): vs COL (J. Hammel); vs FLA (J. Johnson) - Moyer has been solid in two of his past three starts, but he's still been pretty bad on the year overall with a .292 BAA, his highest mark since it was at .319 over eight starts with the Cardinals back in 1991. He's also been obliterated at home this season, so don't trust the veteran this week.

Brett Anderson (OAK): vs TEX (S. Feldman); at KC (Z. Greinke) - Anderson has been good, but not great, over his past two starts after a stellar three-start stretch beforehand. He did, however, get rocked for six runs through four innings his last start against the Rangers (albeit, that was in Texas), and you have to assume that will be his only chance at a win with his second turn against Greinke.

Gio Gonzalez (OAK): vs TEX (D. Holland); at KC (L. Hochevar) - Gonzalez seems to have turned things around his past two starts, against the Red Sox and Yankees no less. Still, his control has remained mediocre at best, and I'm not going to be the one who's playing him when he allows 11 earned.

Tim Stauffer (SD): vs ATL (J. Vazquez); vs NYM (J. Santana) - The fourth overall pick from 2003 has been great in four starts for the Padres thus far and also gets both starts next week at his spacious home ballpark. Still, you can't expect Stauffer to even try to contend for a win over Vazquez or Santana, and thus he may not be worth the risk.

Manny Parra (MLW): at LAD (C. Kershaw); at HOU (R. Oswalt) - Parra's first two games following his minor league rehab stint were great, though his last two have been shaky to say the least with 27 baserunners and nine runs in 11 innings. His road ERA is 7.92 and road WHIP is above 2.00, so steer clear.

Chris Tillman (BAL): at DET (J. Washburn); at TOR (TBD) - Tillman has great stuff and great potential down the road, but wasn't too stellar in his last few minor league starts and failed to make it through five in his big league debut. Don't consider him an option yet.

Derek Holland (TEX): at OAK (G. Gonzalez); at LAA (J. Lackey) - Holland is coming off a gem against Seattle, but he's still been far too inconsistent this season to entrust with two starts, especially not against to top-six offenses from July.

Charlie Morton (PIT): vs WAS (G. Mock); vs STL (A. Wainwright) - Morton has shown nice flashes this season, but overall has been too inconsistent to trust from start to start. He may have one excellent matchup against the Nationals and Mock, but the second turn against St. Louis and Wainwright is far from ideal.

Scott Feldman (TEX): at OAK (B. Anderson); at LAA (M. Palmer) - The 9-4 record is great, and his ERA (3.99) and WHIP (1.22) are just fine as well. Still, his strikeout numbers are very weak, he's coming off a six-run, 2.1-inning turn and is facing two of the No. 1 (Angels) and No. 6 (A's) top run-scoring offenses in July.

PICK OF THE WEEK

Ryan Rowland-Smith (SEA): at KC (L. Hochevar); vs TB (S. Kazmir) - Rowland-Smith could make for a fine spot-play this week, getting two starts against offenses that have each been bottom five in the MLB ranks in runs scored in July. RRS made the headlines with his last start, carrying a no hitter into the seventh inning against the Blue Jays and outdueling Roy Halladay for the win. He's now been solid in both his outings since being out of the majors since the first week of the year with biceps tendonitis, and this is the same guy that that concluded last season with eight-straight quality starts.

HEDGE YOUR BETS

Brad Penny (BOS): at TB (M. Garza); at NYY (J. Chamberlain) - Penny has been annihilated two of his past three starts, has been worse on the road this season and is scheduled to face two dangerous offenses with fine starters on the mound. It doesn't sound like the week to go with Penny in your lineup, and also know that the possible return of Tim Wakefield (back) could put Penny's two-start status in jeopardy.

OTHERS

Mike Hampton (HOU) : vs SF (M. Cain) ; vs MLW (Y. Gallardo)
Garrett Mock (WAS) : at PIT (C. Morton) ; vs ARZ (D. Haren)
David Huff (CLE) : vs MIN (S. Baker) ; at CWS (J. Contreras)
J.D. Martin (WAS) : vs FLA (J. Johnson) ; vs ARZ (Y. Petit)
Jason Hammel (COL) : at PHI (J. Moyer) ; vs CHC (R. Wells)

TWO-START NOTES

With a day off on Monday, the Rockies could opt to temporarily skip Jason Hammel's start, moving his turn to Friday, after he failed to make it out of the second inning his last outing. Such a move would bump Jorge De La Rosa into two-start territory, and while he'd be pitching at Philadelphia and at home against the Cubs, he's still been good enough of late to probably give the go-ahead as a play.

Roy Oswalt's scheduled start this Sunday is currently up in the air as he deals with lower back issues. If he can't pitch on Sunday, the Astros' rotation could be juggled around.

Roy Halladay could potentially receive two starts on the week, though it's a bit unclear how the Blue Jays will handle their rotation with days off on both Monday and Thursday. Still, he's a must-play regardless.

The Cardinals have two off-days as well, though it's pretty clear that they'll skip the No. 5 spot in their rotation and give Joel Pineiro the second turn. He's discussed above.