By Cory Elfrink
June 17, 2009 12:30pm CDT

The Rockets entered last season with championship aspirations once again, but when Tracy McGrady went down for the season, those expectations seemingly expired. Or did they? The Rockets made it out of the first round for the first time since 1997 when they beat the Trail Blazers in six games. They then surprised many by pushing the Lakers to seven games, despite losing Yao Ming following Game 3. Ron Artest proved to be an excellent acquisition, and Aaron Brooks had his breakout season after the team dealt Rafer Alston at mid-season.

Cap situation: $64.6 million committed to 11 players. League salary cap estimated at $58 million for 2009-2010 season.

Returning players:Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, Luis Scola, Aaron Brooks, Shane Battier, Carl Landry, Chuck Hayes, Kyle Lowry, Brent Barry, Joey Dorsey, and Brian Cook ($3.5 million player option).

Key free agents: Ron Artest and Von Wafer

Five Burning Questions
1) Can they afford to keep Artest?
Artest was on his best behavior for the majority of the season, and he really picked up his play after McGrady had his season-ending knee surgery. He has said numerous times since the playoff run ended that he wants to return to Houston. The bad boy has had some of his best seasons playing for coach Rick Adelman, and that is a pairing we like to see. Due to their current cap situation, the Rockets' only way of retaining Ron-Ron is by using the Early Bird Exception or Mid-Level Exception. Both moves would put them over the luxury tax, which is something all teams hope to avoid. However, I still expect them to make a solid offer for the 29-year-old (something around four years, $40 million). Without him, they may not be a playoff team.

2) When and how strong will McGrady and Yao return?
T-Mac underwent microfracture knee surgery in February and then had arthroscopic shoulder surgery in May. The best-case scenario is that he can begin practicing in November, but it is entirely possible that he is unable to return to the court until February. The Rockets will pay him $23.2 million (highest in the league) next season in the final year of his contract. Don't expect them to be overly cautious with his return. Hopefully, once he does come back, he can contribute to a playoff run, but I expect to see an even further limited effort from McGrady. A fractured foot forced Yao out of the playoffs and will also keep him from representing China in the Asian Men's Basketball Championships this August. He avoided surgery, but he will not be able to resume basketball activities until August. Ming should be his usual effective self once he does return, but he remains a longshot to make it through an 82-game schedule.

3) Can they trade McGrady or should they not even try?
T-Mac is clearly damaged goods at this point in his career, and he may not even be able to play until after the all-star break (at best, he can start practicing in November). However, he does have the biggest expiring contract heading into the best free-agent class in league history. We have already seen several teams make moves that will position themselves to have an abundance of cap space in the summer of 2010 and no move will free up more space than acquiring T-Mac. If the Rockets feel they can make another playoff run this season, they should shop McGrady now. However, they would have to find a team that is virtually willing to throw away next season before it even starts, which is no easy task. How bad do teams want the cap space? We'll find out if McGrady is moved. Otherwise, he stays in Houston, and the Rockets have to hope they can claw their way back into the playoffs.

4) Is it time to offer Yao an extension?
There's a very good chance that Yao opts out of the final year of his deal to become a free agent next summer. He would likely command the maximum salary, even in a summer full of superstars. The Rockets will have the money to pay him more than any other team, so their odds of retaining him seem very good. Should they go ahead and lock him up this summer? I don't see any need for it and given his injury history, it's best to see how the 2009-10 campaigns plays out before committing $120 or so million dollars to him. Worst-case scenario is both McGrady and he bolt next summer, and they have nearly their entire salary cap (along with Brooks, Landry, Hayes and Lowry) to bring in two or three elite players.

5) Who are their top free agent targets?
I expect them to blow through the luxury tax and make Artest an offer, but I wouldn't be shocked if they did not. Darryl Morey is one of the more savvy GMs in the game, and he typically sees talent where others do not. The roster is already looking good for next season, so I only expect them to make one or two signings in the offseason. Look for them to use their Mid-Level Exception on someone like Zaza Pachulia, Chris Wilcox, or Drew Gooden (who should be able to command more money). They'll also have to find another wing to take up minutes until McGrady can return. Would Gerald Green give them a cheap hometown discount?

Ideal Situation: McGrady is the wild card. How soon will another team give up on next season and trade for his monster, expiring contract? It seems like this summer would be too soon, so I expect him to be a Rocket when 2009-10 begins. Ideally, they can re-sign Artest and use their Mid-Level Exception on Pachulia, who is capable of playing major minutes once the inevitable Yao injury strikes. It would be a phenomenal move if Morey could talk Gerald Green into joining his hometown squad for the Bi-Annual Exception (around $2 million). The Rockets do not have a draft pick.

Resulting Depth Chart
PG: Aaron Brooks/Kyle Lowry
SG: Ron Artest/Tracy McGrady/Brent Barry
SF: Shane Battier/Gerald Green
PF: Luis Scola/Carl Landry/Chuck Hayes
C: Yao Ming/Zaza Pachulia

Strengths: Star power, front court depth, strength, basketball IQ, half-court offense
Weaknesses: Overall depth, durability, speed