By Kyle Elfrink
November 26, 2009 9:05am CST

Touchdown Tendency Analysis Tool

What it is: As the season progresses, this type of data will help Owner's Edge subscribers differentiate between a contender and pretender at individual positions. It will provide a baseline for just how much a team is using a certain position in the red zone.

What it means for Week 12:

- This number will come as a surprise. No offense throws the ball more inside the 20 than the Kansas City Chiefs do. And, there's a 6.5 percent difference between the Chiefs and the No. 2 team (Arizona). That's a big reason why KC, despite being a very limited offense, is ranked 15th for TD passes with 14. That number may stay stuck at 14, though. The last time that the Chiefs met the Chargers they didn't even run a play inside San Diego territory until the final two minutes of the first half. The lone TD, though, was a pass from seven yards out.

- There's little argument when it comes to Tennessee's Vince Young. First off, we all know he's a nonfactor in fantasy circles. But, although he may not help the bragging rights for owners, he certainly has pushed the Titans to successful heights with four wins after a 0-6 start. In those four tilts, Tennessee has scored 65 of their 104 offensive points on plays that originated inside the red zone. Yes, Chris Johnson is carrying an amazing load, but Young is managing the game and crafting lengthy drives that are continually taking his team into scoring territory. He'll be required to do that again, as Arizona does not give up big play scores to opponents. The Cardinals force you to drive down the field, as they've allowed just six TDs that have covered more than 20 yards.

- Six of the seven teams who run the ball inside the red zone more than anyone else have a good reason - their quarterback play is a major question mark. From Mark Sanchez in New York to Chad Henne in Miami, those seven squads all rush the ball more than 60 percent of the time within the 20. The lone exception to that rule is Cincinnati with Carson Palmer. The Bengals rush the ball almost 68 percent of the time in the scoring area. Don't expect a big alteration to that trend this weekend as Cleveland ranks 27th in the NFL for rushing TDs allowed this year.


Track Records

What it is: Those who forget history are doomed to miss out on big weekends. This device gives you the inside edge on the players who standout against particular teams.

What it means for Week 12:

- It's tough to predict a sudden turnaround this weekend from the struggling Matt Ryan. He did improve last week up in New York and faces a relatively average Tampa Bay pass defense this week. Still, even during his spectacular rookie season, Ryan performed rather weakly against the Bucs. In fact, he was intercepted four times total while failing to collect a touchdown pass in any of the 2008 games. His first game (a 13-for-33 showing with less than 160 yards through the air) might have been the worst of his first season in the league.

- Ricky Williams is coming of a huge game against Carolina and there's a very good shot that he continues it on the road in Buffalo. We all know how pitiful the Bills have been against the run (ranked 31st in the NFL, allowing 166 yards per week), but Williams also has quite a track record against them. Over the course of eight career games, the Dolphins undisputed No.1 back has rushing totals of 93, 228, 153, and 111. He had 85 and a score earlier this year when the Dolphins topped Buffalo, 38-10.

- Joseph Addai is a Houston native and he's always enjoyed his time against the hometown team. He netted two TDs earlier this year back in Indy and that gave him a grand total of nine scores in just seven games against the Texans. Even in the lone game where he failed to score versus Houston, Addai still rushed for 100 yards and managed four receptions.


Stud, Dud, or Average

What it is: How do your players rate? Identify which fantasy players are the biggest studs, duds and simply mediocre with this tool. Finding the most consistent players is the name of the game here.

What it means for Week 12:

- Sure, it's only been four starts for Josh Freeman versus 10 starts for Mark Sanchez, but Freeman is averaging slightly more fantasy points per game (15.2 to 15.0) than his Jets' counterpart. Two of Freeman's starts have come against the No.3 ranked (Green Bay) and No.6 ranked (New England) team defenses. His other two had him battling average defensive clubs like New Orleans and Miami. Atlanta is 29th versus the pass and 28th overall, meaning the rookie is set to have his finest game.
- Ray Rice has yet to experience a Dud performance this year (less than six points), but he'll need to rack up most of his damage as a receiver against Pittsburgh this week. First off, the Steelers have allowed a league-low two rushing TDs this year. Secondly, they've given up a league-low 692 rushing yards. Finally, the opposition constantly avoids running versus the Steel Curtain as they've had to stop the run a league-low 203 times this year. Rice has hit at least 20 attempts in three of his past four games, but you can expect that number to be down this weekend.

- Carolina's Steve Smith has bounced his production up just a bit in recent weeks. All four of his TDs this year have come in the past four games, as have 18 of his 45 receptions. That work has been good for an average of nearly 12 fantasy points per game which would rank him in the game's top four if he could maintain that pace over a full season. Now, he gets the showdown with Darrelle Revis, who many are promoting as the best cover corner in the NFL.


Player Workload

What it is: How frequently is a player being used in the rushing and receiving game? We identify the 'horses' that get the highest percentage of their team's touches each week.

What it means for Week 12:

- To their credit, Cincinnati was quick to believe in and count on Cedric Benson more than most any other NFL team, as well as numerous fantasy owners. And now, with or without Benson, the Bengals have become a run-oriented attack. Turning to Bernard Scott last weekend, they rushed the ball 43 times against Oakland. Overall, in the past seven games they have averaged nearly 34 runs per game. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer has not seen his pass yardage total more than 233 in any of the past four games. This week's opponent Cleveland ranks 29th against the run.

- Jacksonville has reinserted themselves back into playoff contention and a big reason is that they are letting Maurice Jones-Drew prove he can handle a big workload. In their 4-1 run, the diminutive rusher has gotten 24 carries per game. In their lone loss during the streak, MJD handled the ball just eight times - yet, still finished with 177 yards. In the first five games of the season, Jones-Drew was getting the ball just 15 times per game. With his recent, usual amount of work, he should add to his current TD streak of five games.

- Two receivers who've jumped forward in terms of fantasy production meet in Minneapolis on Sunday when the Vikings' Sidney Rice and the Bears' Devin Hester take to the turf. Both have more than 50 catches on the season to set personal career bests and they are both two of the names on the list of 17 receivers who average five receptions per week. At the start of the year, nearly all wondered if either could crack a fantasy football-starting lineup once in awhile. Now, they have become every week starters.


Offensive Case Study

What it is: Find out how each player on each team is producing yards and touchdowns from week-to-week.

What it means for Week 12:

- It must be nice to be nice to be the New York Jets secondary this week. Sure, you have to worry about Steve Smith and the possibility of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart breaking into the second level, but after that there's little to fear. Muhsin Muhammad? He has no scores and has been under 50 yards receiving in six of his eight games. Youngster Dwayne Jarrett? He's equally scoreless and has eight games of zero or one catch. Tight end Jeff King? He's had three catches in the past four weeks. New York already ranks fourth in the league against the pass. This one could get ugly in the Meadowlands.

- For the first time in 2009, the Rams had three pass receivers total more than 60 yards in the same game. Donnie Avery won't get you for more than five catches but is the lone deep threat on the team. Newcomer Brandon Gibson had a few communication problems in Week 11, but still proved to be worthy target. And, finally, Danny Amendola plays the slot role very well and is more than willing to risk life and limb over the middle of the field. Now, we'll see if they can do it with Kyle Boller and against a Seahawk defense that has allowed more than 245 yards passing to four of the last five quarterbacks they've gone up against.

- Ever since Sherm Lewis showed up to handle the offensive play-calling duties, the Redskin offense has picked things up. One of the most obvious improvements is with quarterback Jason Campbell. In the three games before Lewis arrived, Campbell was good for just 135 yards per game. Now, over the last four games, Campbell has lifted his per game average to 232 yards. He's also completed more than 65 percent of his passes. The Eagles did hold Jay Cutler in check a week ago, but before that, they had allowed 200 yards passing to each of their last six opponents. Philly should get up early and that means that Campbell will drop back plenty of times and probably come in at over 200 yards, yet again.


Net Rankings

What it is: The Owner's Edge net yards-per-game rankings provide a true measurement of a team's relative success by factoring in quality of opposition. Each team's performance is weighed against the average performance of its opponents in all other games (excluding the game or games played against the team being measured).

What it means for Week 12:

- Offense, offense, offense. That will be the appetizer, main meal, and desert on Monday night when New England travels to New Orleans. The Saints put up a league-best 426 yards a game and the Patriots are just behind them at 417. The two go about totaling those yards differently though as the SuperDomers rank fifth in the NFL in rushing, while the Pats are all the way down at 19th. New Orleans has done more with their yardage by posting nearly 37 points per game, but some of that can be attributed to a few defensive TDs. New England sits at No. 3 in the scoring rankings, with 29 per outing.

- Kyle Orton and Eli Manning will get quite a challenge on Thursday night. The Broncos' signal caller faces a pass defense that ranks No.2 in the NFL, allowing just 168 yards per game. Plus, they normally hold the opposition to almost 60 yards below their usual total (best in the league). As for Manning, the Broncos rank fifth overall against the pass. When at home, they've clamped down on some of the finest quarterbacks in the league - Tony Romo (241 yards), Tom Brady (209), Ben Roethlisberger (202) and Philip Rivers (145) have all had some turbulence in the thin air.

- Make no mistake about it, the Titans must have Cortland Finnegan on the field if they want to slow down opposing offenses. The All-Pro cornerback makes an amazing difference in the overall numbers. He missed three games earlier this year and in those three games the opposition posted an average of 42 points! In all other games (with Finnegan on the field), Tennessee have give up less than 21. This weekend's tilt in the desert is one of the biggest challenges of the year as Finnegan and Co. will have to work against the three-headed monster that makes up the Cardinals passing attack.