By Ted Carlson
January 8, 2009 2:32pm CST

For the first time since 1993, closer Trevor Hoffman is ready to wear a different uniform. The long-long-long-time Padres’ closer has agreed to a one-year, $6 million deal with the Brewers. The contract includes $1.5 million in incentives and does not have an option for 2010, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports.

Hoffman is baseball’s all-time saves leader (554), and he is known for his theme music, “Hells Bells� by AC/DC. Anyone who has been to San Diego and Milwaukee would likely urge Hoffman to change his tune to “Highway to Hell,� another popular tune by that classic Australian rock band. We are, of course, jesting. Sort of.

2008 REVIEW
Typically we start these free agent signing pieces with a discussion of the player’s exploits prior to 2008, but this 41-year-old right-hander really needs no such introduction. His stuff and approach has changed over the past two decades (he was drafted in 1989), and an examination of his dominance in the 1990s doesn’t help fantasy owners for 2009.

Hoffman’s go-to offering in more recent times is a jaw-dropping, batter-befuddling change-up. He also works in a mid-80s four-seam fastball, a cut fastball, a rare slider, and a very rare curveball. Hoffman works on deception rather than dominance, but it’s tough to argue too much with 38 hits and 46 strikeouts over 45.1 innings, which were his numbers in 2008. It’s also difficult to argue with his save rate: 30 in 34 chances. Other relievers who reached 15 saves but blew fewer than four opportunities were Joakim Soria, Mariano Rivera, and Brad Lidge.

Like most successful relievers, Hoffman throws strikes (only nine walks) and keeps batters guessing (.224 BAA). His career WHIP is 1.05 and his career BAA is .210, and he has stuck fairly close to those digits even into his late-30s and at 40 years old.

The downside to 2008 was that Hoffman posted a 3.77 ERA, his worst mark since 1995. He served up eight homers over those 45.1 innings. Those long balls accounted for 10 of the 19 runs he allowed all year. Hoffman posted a flyball rate of 47.2 in 2008, and that extreme mark is not an aberration. It was down from 51.8 percent in 2007 and right around his marks of 2004-06: 47.6, 42.3, 45.4.

Letting opposing batsmen swat the ball into the air is fine if your home field is PETCO Park. The Padres’ yard saw the fewest number of long balls and the fewest amount of home runs in 2008, and it has long been known as a pitching-friendly venue.

2009 PREVIEW
The move away from PETCO Park and into Miller Park could be a problem for Hoffman, even though he actually posted better numbers on the road than at home last year. The Brewers' home turf ranked second in the NL in homers last season, and it caters well to left-handed bats. Hoffman still dominates righties (.165 BAA in 2008, .169 BAA in 2007), but left-handed swingers batted .299 in 2007 and .291 in 2008.

The counterargument to the concern about Hoffman’s flyball rate and the move to a more hitter-friendly venue is that his HR/FB ratio jumped to 13.8 percent last year. Maybe “jumped� isn’t the right word there. It soared from 2004-07 marks of 7.4, 4.2, 7.2 and 2.3 percent.

Hoffman may be past his 40th birthday, but the rest of his indicators suggest that major swing in HR/FB ratio could have been a bit of bad luck. The veteran stopper should push that mark down in 2008, and he could push closer to his ERA of 2007 (2.98) than the 3.77 of last year.

Fantasy owners who’ve been playing for a few years should have a good idea of what they are getting, even if Hoffman is in another uniform. He is no longer a top-tier closer, and he is going to work fewer innings than the younger guys. There are a few concerns with his stuff, and the Brewers still need to figure who is going to fill out their rotation and who is going to bridge the gap between the starters and Hoffman. However, this future Hall of Famer is also a pretty safe bet in the 15-20 range of closers. Once you find yourself looking at stoppers like Matt Capps, Mike Gonzalez, and Joey Devine, Hoffman should be on your radar.