We are always on the lookout for new metrics which can help us to determine the value of baseball players. You may or may not be aware, but there are quite a few metrics out there that could help you to determine which hitters excelled last season, which efforts weren't as good as they might appear at first glance, and which players might be primed for a breakout campaign in the coming season. Some of the measures that we will discuss are fairly well known, while others may not be. Honestly, traditional baseball magazines, books and websites aren't necessarily concerned with helping you uncover new tools, as they often stick with the tired and true ways of reviewing players. While we will certainly provide you with that baseline information, we will also look to expose you to ideas, theories and measures that the mainstream sometimes avoids.
In this piece we will discuss a sabermetric measure which is used to gauge a hitter's overall effectiveness, and that is
Bases per Plate Appearance, or BPA.
WHAT ARE PLATE APPEARANCES?
There are a plethora of metrics out there that can tell you how much power a guy has in his bat, how good a base runner he is or how many beers a guy could drink before passing out; but if they are so flipping complicated that you need to have a degree from MIT to understand them, what's the point? Luckily for you, Bases per Plate Appearance, or
BPA is a simple idea that is pretty darn straightforward.
Just what is
BPA? Well just what it says actually.
BPA is a formula which presents a way to quantify how many bases a hitter earns per Plate Appearance (PA). Notice that this metric focuses on plate appearances and not the more traditional idea of at-bats. The reason is that we are concerned with every time a hitter comes to the plate regardless of the outcome of the event, so
BPA considers such occurrences as walks and hit-by-pitch, events that count in the PA column but not in the AB one. Why do we care? Because we are interested in how many bases a guy picks up every time he comes to the plate, otherwise we would have to throw out walks because they do not count in one's at-bat total. To that end, here is the full formula for PA:
Plate Appearances = AB + BB + HBP + SF + times reached on defensive interference
With that understanding of why
BPA uses PA instead of AB, let's move on to
BPA itself.
BPA
Here is the formula for
BPA:
(TB+BB+HBP+SB-CS-GIDP)
_________________________
(AB+BB+HBP+SF)
We told you it was simple, right?
BPA measures which batters are capable of generating the most bases when they come to the plate - it really is as simple as that.
BPA therefore would favor any hitter who has a high average, extra-base power and a discerning eye.
2008 SEASON
Here are the
BPA leaders for 2008 based on 502 PA (the amount needed to qualify for the batting title, determined by 162 games x 3.1 PA per game).
.685
Albert Pujols
.636
Manny Ramirez
.633
Lance Berkman
.629
Hanley Ramirez
.625
Chipper Jones
.624
Matt Holliday
.623
Alex Rodriguez
.617
Milton Bradley
.615
Ryan Ludwick
.612
Carlos Quentin
.611
Grady Sizemore
.596
Adam Dunn
.593
Chase Utley
.593
Mark Teixeira
.591
Kevin Youkilis
.584
Alfonso Soriano
.581
David Wright
.581
Jason Bay
.578
Ryan Braun
.577
Carlos Beltran
* Not enough PA to qualify:
Jayson Werth (.593),
J.D. Drew (.583) and
Chris Iannetta (.573).
Albert Pujols leads the way here, not a big shock when you consider that he was second in baseball in OBP (.470) and first in total bases with 342. The man who led baseball in OBP,
Chipper Jones (.470), came in fifth here partly because injuries limited him to enough plate appearances to produce only 252 total bases, the 72nd-best mark in baseball.
As for the total bases angle,
Ryan Braun was second to Pujols with 338, but he drops all the way to 19th on this list. The reason for that? Well, walking just 42 times certainly didn't help.
Manny Ramirez split his season between the Red Sox and the Dodgers, but overall he was No. 2 on the list. As amazing as his .636 number was, it was actually only .014 points better than his ultra-impressive career mark, which just so happens to be the 15th-best mark all-time for a batter with 3,000 plate appearances.
Albert Pujols, by the way, is eighth all-time with his .646 mark, while
Jim Thome is 17th at .620. As for one of the men involved in the process that sent Manny out west,
Jason Bay produced the 18th-best mark in the game to join fellow Red Sox player
Kevin Youkilis in the top-20.
Milton Bradley might have hit only 22 home runs with 77 RBI and 78 runs scored because of injuries that limited him to 126 games, but get used to seeing his name on these sabermetrically inclined lists, as his effort last season was special. His .617 was the first time his mark was over .600 for a season.
Notable missing players include the following guys.
Ryan Howard finished at .577, mere decimal points behind
Carlos Beltran for 20th on the list, so we won't dog the big fella here. Ditto for
Aubrey Huff, who posted a .576 mark, the best of his career.
Ian Kinsler, who had his season limited to just 121 games because of a sports hernia, posted a .575 mark, pushing his career mark to .530 through three seasons. That guy has potential greatness written all over him. Fellow Ranger
Josh Hamilton came in just behind Kinsler at .571, giving the Rangers a massively impressive trio last season when you include the since-departed Bradley.
Miguel Cabrera finished in 42nd place amongst qualifiers at .548, below that of Tigers teammate
Curtis Granderson (.554).
AL MVP
Dustin Pedroia came in at .530, actually one point below
Troy Glaus and his .531 mark. That's what happens when you only go deep 17 times with 50 walks (Glaus had 27 long balls and 87 walks).
And finally,
Cody Ross of the Marlins finished with a .524 mark, which actually put him ahead of much bigger names like
Bobby Abreu (.523),
Vladimir Guerrero (.520) and
Justin Morneau (.518) just to name a few.
To put last year's leaders in historical perspective see the end of this article for the all-time single season leaders in
BPA.
MULTIPLE-YEAR TREND
For a little more perspective let's look at the leaders in
BPA for the past three years since we are into threes in the fantasy world.
2006-08 Leaders
* Minimum 1250 PA
.653
Albert Pujols
.641
David Ortiz
.636
Ryan Howard
.634
Alex Rodriguez
.626
Chipper Jones
.620
Lance Berkman
.618
Carlos Pena
.614
Matt Holliday
.610
Carlos Beltran
.610
Jim Thome
.610
Hanley Ramirez
.605
Alfonso Soriano
.604
Manny Ramirez
.596
Grady Sizemore
.595
Adam Dunn
.594
David Wright
.594
Chase Utley
.586
Jason Giambi
.582
Mark Teixeira
.580
Miguel Cabrera
2008 TEAM LEADERS
(MINIMUM 300 PA)
TEAMS
BPA
Arizona .520
Justin Upton
Atlanta .625
Chipper Jones
Baltimore .576
Aubrey Huff
Boston .591
Kevin Youkilis
Chi Cubs .584
Alfonso Soriano
Chi White Sox .612
Carlos Quentin
Cincinnati .601
Adam Dunn
Cleveland .611
Grady Sizemore
Colorado .624
Matt Holliday
Detroit .554
Curtis Granderson
Florida .629
Hanley Ramirez
Houston .633
Lance Berkman
Kansas City .498
Alex Gordon
LA Angels .520 Vlad Guerrero
LA Dodgers .551
Andre Ethier
Milwaukee .578
Ryan Braun
Minnesota .526
Denard Span
NY Mets .581
David Wright
NY Yankees .623
Alex Rodriguez
Oakland .560
Jack Cust
Philadelphia .593
Jayson Werth
Pittsburgh .586
Jason Bay
San Diego .537
Jody Gerut
San Francisco .511
Fred Lewis
Seattle .504
Raul Ibanez
St. Louis .685
Albert Pujols
Tampa Bay .569
Evan Longoria
Texas .617
Milton Bradley
Toronto .500
Alex Rios
Washington .560
Elijah Dukes
ADDENDUM - BPA LEADERS SEASON, ALL-TIME
| B.Bonds 2001 |
.907 |
B.Ruth 1924 |
.790 |
| B.Ruth 1920 |
.885 |
B.Ruth 1930 |
.788 |
| B.Ruth 1921 |
.885 |
J.Foxx 1932 |
.785 |
| B.Bonds 2004 |
.882 |
T.Cobb 1911 |
.781 |
| B.Bonds 2002 |
.869 |
T.Williams 1941 |
.781 |
| B.Ruth 1927 |
.820 |
H.Wilson 1930 |
.770 |
| B.Bonds 2003 |
.818 |
L.Walker 1997 |
.770 |
| B.Ruth 1923 |
.818 |
J.Bagwell 1994 |
.768 |
| L.Gehrig 1927 |
.806 |
B.Ruth 1928 |
.768 |
| B.Ruth 1926 |
.801 |
T.Williams 1957 |
.767 |
| M.McGwire 1998 |
.799 |
M.McGwire 1996 |
.765 |
| R.Hornsby 1925 |
.795 |
L.Gehrig 1930 |
.761 |
* Minimum 502 PA