By Jon Stulberg
September 18, 2008 5:01pm CDT

Week 2 of the NFL season had a little bit of everything. We saw a blown call potentially turn the outcome of the AFC West on its head. Nine teams won for the second time in a row and now only two of those teams face off against each other in Week 3 (Dallas @ Green Bay). We also continued to see some NFL rookies stepping up and performing at a high level for their teams.

The hardest people to manage in fantasy football are rookies. The jump from college to the NFL is so tremendous you essentially have zero track record to go on outside of combine numbers. Which performance is for real and which performance was a one week fluke? The good news in fantasy football is there's usually someone else waiting on the waiver wire should you find yourself holding the fluke. The bad news is you're probably making that pick fresh off a loss. In a short season, even one loss can be the difference between playoffs or watching from the couch. The purpose of this column is to sift through the data and analyze who we think is for real, and who is the fluke. So let's get to it.


Quarterback

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Analyzing the schedule is crucial. Now playing against a real defense (Tampa Bay), Ryan looked every bit the rookie, completing only 13-of-33 passes for 158 yards and two interceptions. Many will look at the schedule, see the awful Kansas City Chiefs coming to town and think that's good news for Ryan owners in deep, two quarterback leagues. Here's the problem: the Chiefs are surrendering only 133.5 yards per game and one touchdown through the air because they give up 213 yards on the ground. Remember Week 1 when Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood ran all over the Lions? Expect the game plan this week to be eerily similar.

Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
Thanks to Hurricane Ike, the Ravens' bye was moved to Week 2. The good news is that gave Flacco a day off to contemplate his Week 1 performance in order to improve. Week 3 brings a struggling Cleveland Browns defense to town. Cleveland is surrendering 242 yards per game through the air, so while the Ravens will likely focus on the run, there's potential for Flacco to show off his gun for an arm. He's still not worthy of being a fantasy starter, but this week gives him the chance to show off his tools, especially if Cleveland's offense rights the ship and this game features more scoring than expected.

Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins
Sleeper alert for those in deep, two quarterback leagues. Henne replaced Pennington in Week 2 and completed 7-of-12 passes for 62 yards. Not eye popping stats, but he did lead the Dolphins on their only touchdown drive. There's no doubt his arm is stronger than Pennington's, which would allow the Dolphins to utilize the speed of Ted Ginn Jr. While the fish won't give up on the season at 0-2, if the losses begin to pile up, there'll come a time when Henne's development will come before Pennington's contract. Experience is what prepares a quarterback. Watching from the sidelines is fine, but there's nothing better than game action. Henne will get his this season.


Running Back

Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
Nineteen rushes for 109 yards plus two catches for 12 yards combined with a Titans win means we're going to see a lot more of Johnson in the weeks to come. LenDale White is still the bruiser, but the Titans want to get the explosion into their offense. Johnson is still learning the offense, so his upside at this point is almost scary. You're looking at someone who'll likely see 20 touches per game and with his speed and ability to make tacklers miss, he has certainly jumped into the RB2 category. Kerry Collins at quarterback actually helps Johnson, as there's not going to be many scrambles from the lead-footed Collins. That leaves more dump passes as a possibility. PPR leaguers take notice.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
It's no fluke. Forte is going to be workhorse for the Bears this season. With 113 yards on 26 touches, Forte is certainly worthy of being a weekly starter. His day could have been even better if a few long runs weren't negated by a penalty. As we said before the season began, running back is the one position where you can have the most confidence inserting a rookie and expecting solid returns. Forte is good at the read and react run, as well as lowering his head and getting the tough yards. He might not be an explosive fantasy scorer, but he's unlikely to let you down too often and hang that four on you.

Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders
Good news, bad news. The good news is that Justin Fargas' groin injury last week looked bad and McFadden capitalized by gaining 164 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. The bad news is that McFadden has been in a protective boot this week at practice and Michael Bush showed he can be very effective with 90 yards on 16 carries. It seems McFadden might still find himself sharing touches even with Fargas out. However, the guy is simply so explosive, he's worthy of being a fantasy starter and could even be RB1 material by the second half. He's almost still a buy low candidate.

Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers
Head coach John Fox reiterated that DeAngelo Williams (11 carries for 31 yards) is his starter, but he can't ignore Stewart's 77 yards and two touchdowns on only 14 carries this past week against a tough Bears defense. It's only a matter of time until Stewart dominates the carries and Williams becomes the change of pace back using his speed against a worn down defense. We were very high on Stewart coming into the season and thus far he hasn't let us down. There's plenty of potential upside ahead, so those who might be 0-2 with an overachieving wide receiver might look for a trade where you acquire a lesser receiver and Stewart. The early bird gets the worm when it comes to trading.

Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys
Marion Barber is simply too much of a monster to allow Felix Jones the chance to shine. In Week 2, Jones received only two carries and didn't catch a single pass. He showed his skills with a 98 yard kickoff return for a touchdown and there's talk in Dallas about getting him more involved on offense. While the rhetoric is nice, Barber is simply too talented and too impressive in the red zone for Jones to climb the ladder. Jones will simply have to wait his turn in Dallas and for your lineup, as well.

Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers
The game plan was to get Mendenhall more carries in Week 2. He got zero. Enough said. Willie Parker is clearly the man in Pittsburgh, but he's currently leading the NFL in carries, which is a scary sign for a player coming off a season lost to a broken leg. Mendenhall will have to see more action soon if the Steelers want a healthy Parker for the playoffs. We wouldn't recommend dropping Mendenhall just yet.

Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions
The Lions offense is killing Smith's value. With 40 yards on 10 carries, Smith's 4.0 yards per carry average is a positive sign. He even added four catches for 21 yards, lending some value for those in PPR leagues. The Rudi Johnson fears disappeared, as Rudi got only one carry and looked incredibly slow doing it. The Lions brought in Cedric Benson and Shaun Alexander for a look, but thus far neither has been signed. While many take that news as a concern for Smith, we feel it's more concern that Johnson is indeed done. If Kitna can pick up the new offense, Smith's potential increases. A Week 3 matchup against a Niners defense surrendering 139 yards per game on the ground should make you smile.

Steve Slaton, Houston Texans
After an off week, things don't get better for Slaton. Their Week 3 opponent, Tennessee, is No. 2 in the league, giving up only 60.5 yards per game on the ground. Grounded is what Slaton should be for your lineup.

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens
Will McGahee play or won't he? There's simply too much risk at this point with Rice for him to be in your lineup, even as a flex play. Surely there are better options out there. Hold onto Rice or if you snaked him away from the McGahee owner. Package him in a deal for an upgrade somewhere else.

Tim Hightower, Arizona Cardinals
Twenty-four yards on 10 carries is nothing to write home about, but Hightower vultured another touchdown away from Edgerrin James this past week. While James is still the workhorse runner in Arizona, Hightower's value is steadily rising in keeper leagues.

Kregg Lumpkin, Green Bay Packers
Yeah, we're reaching here after Lumpkin had a 19-yard carry and 22 yards on three catches. However, when the head coach says a player has absolutely earned more playing time, we listen. We're talking about a team that turned Ryan Grant into a superstar just year ago. Lumpkin is clearly third, at best, behind Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson, but stranger things have happened then a third string runner turning into a fantasy worthy starter. Deep leaguers be prepared.


Wide Receiver

DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles
Regardless of how many different terms you can use that essentially mean butthead, the one thing you can't ignore is Jackson caught six passes for 110 yards in Week 2. Sure, it should have been 111 yards and a touchdown, but it's safe to say he's learned his lesson. Jackson is only the second receiver to begin his rookie season with back-to-back 100-yard games. Donovan McNabb looks healthy and apparently loves his little spark plug. So should you.

Eddie Royal, Denver Broncos
We called this one perfectly. The return of Brandon Marshall would greatly limit Royal's touches, but the emergence of Cutler will still make him fantasy worthy. Five catches for 37 yards and a touchdown is still a nice day. It's even better when you add the game winning two-point conversion. Don't be discouraged by the poor 7.4 yards per catch average, as Denver employed an underneath passing game all day against San Diego. With Cutler's arm strength, they'll stretch the field often this season.

James Hardy, Buffalo Bills
The Bills got the opportunity to use Hardy's height when close to the end zone and they took advantage of it. Hardy caught two passes for 17 yards and his first NFL touchdown in Week 2. While he's not worthy of any attention in performance-based leagues, Hardy is at least worth stashing in touchdown-only leagues. Time will tell if the Bills chose correctly in matching Hardy with Lee Evans.

Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers
Nelson's first NFL reception was a 29-yard touchdown from Aaron Rodgers. Currently listed 4th on the depth chart, the emergence of Rodgers combined with an injury to someone in front of him could allow Nelson to emerge as a decent bye week filler and someone to watch in deep keeper leagues.


Tight End

John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks
Seahawks receivers are simply dropping all over the place. As a result, Carlson is emerging as the No. 1 option in the passing game. With six receptions for 78 yards, Carlson is creeping into TE1 territory. It's hard to imagine the signings of Keary Colbert and Koren Robinson changing anything. Until Bobby Engram and Deion Branch return to the field, Carlson is worthy of starting on a weekly basis.

Dustin Keller, New York Jets
One catch. Playing only 14 snaps the entire game? Keller is waiver fodder at this point, even in a deep league.


Good luck this week. See you next time.