By Dan Beaver
September 4, 2008 11:51am CDT

There are plenty of storylines this week as drivers prepare for the Chevy Rock & Roll 400.

Only five drivers enter the weekend with their Chase spots locked up and nerves will be on edge. Two more drivers, Greg Biffle and Kevin Harvick need only start Saturday night to earn enough points to guarantee their position in the playoffs, but that leaves five slots left to fill and the battle on the cusp of the top 12 in points has been fierce. Tony Stewart can determine his own fate if he finishes 36th or better and three other drivers, Matt Kenseth (26th), Jeff Gordon (24th) and Denny Hamlin (21st) are in similar situations, although none of them cannot afford a bad run.

The 12th spot is much more volatile. Clint Bowyer must outrace both David Ragan and Kasey Kahne or finish very closely behind them. Depending on how far toward the front they battle, the driver of the No. 6 could beat Bowyer by less than a handful of positions and take the 12th spot. In fact, Bowyer could still get knocked out of the playoffs if he finishes second—assuming Ragan picks this night to win his first NASCAR Sprint Cup race after leading the most laps.

Why is this important to fantasy players? Because it is going to change the way some of these drivers race. The top seven drivers in the standings have nothing to lose and can go for broke, while Stewart, Kenseth, Gordon and Hamlin will need to run an unadventurous race that ensures they finish in the front half of the field. Bowyer, Ragan and Kahne are in a precarious middle ground. They can't afford to race conservatively because their competition won't, but on the other hand, they can't take too many risks.

If the Chase does not hold your interest this week, Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards bring their rivalry back to a short track in a race where they have nothing to lose. If he gets loose underneath the No. 99 and accidentally sends Edwards into the wall, Busch has already established his alibi by doing the same thing to Dale Earnhardt Jr. earlier this spring in the closing laps of the Crown Royal Dan Lowry 400. Any contact between these two drivers during the final 10 races could end a championship bid, so they need to get any potential paybacks out of the way—and don't think that hasn't occurred to the two combatants.

If that is not enough to fill the stands, teenage sensation Joey Logano will attempt to make his Cup debut this week in a field of 46 entries. Edwards scored a top-10 in his first start at Michigan in 2004, so it is not impossible that this kid could have a remarkable race. Even if he doesn't, Logano will be worth his weight in fantasy gold because of a low introductory salary cap.

And just to make this a Hollywood drama, Tropical Storm Hanna is lurking off the Atlantic Seaboard threatening to interrupt an already compressed schedule that features one round of practice, qualification and impound procedures all on a single day.

Still, the race will be run and at the end of it a winner will be crowned.

The Favorites

Kyle Busch has been a favorite nearly every week and he's rewarded the fantasy faithful with solid runs. That won't change this week as he has been nearly perfect on this track throughout his career. In his rookie season, Busch finished fourth in both races, he was fifth the following spring and has finished runner-up in three of the last four efforts on this short track. Notably, his only stumble in seven events was a 20th scored in this race last fall, but no one expects that kind of result this weekend.

Hamlin's raw record does not look nearly as impressive as Busch's with only two top-fives, three top-10s and a 15th in five starts. Worse still, his effort this spring ended in a 24th-place finish, but fantasy owners need only rewind the DVR to that race to call him a favorite. Except for a single lap under caution, Hamlin led the first 382 laps before a tire started to deflate. Ultimately it blew and sent him to the pits and off the lead lap, but his dominance was never in question.

Harvick is another man on a mission this week. It was not that long ago that he clung tentatively to the top 12, but after racking up five top-10s in his last five races, he's in a position to drive flat out and charge for victory lane. Winless so far in 2008, he needs the bonus points to help his championship run and Richmond is a good place for him to earn the much needed markers. He won this race in 2006 and that is part of an active seven-race streak of top-10s on the three-quarter-mile short track.

Dark Horses

Stewart is listed as a dark horse this week only because of his lame duck status. While we stand by our assertion that he will not win this season, a solid top-10 will make him a welcome addition to your roster. The current Home Depot driver has finished inside the top 10 six times in his last seven races and with three victories at Richmond at the beginning of his career, he has some very fond memories of the track.

Mark Martin returns to the series after taking a two-week vacation and he is another driver who must be watched. He was in a position to win this spring after finishing in the top five barely two weeks previous on the one-mile flat track in Phoenix. He hasn't had a run that strong since, but he crossed the line in the top 10 in his last two races at Pocono Raceway and Michigan International Speedway. Aric Almirola steered the No. 8 to a solid 13th-place finish in the last short track race at Bristol Motor Speedway, so this team still has momentum.

The battle for the final spot in the top 12 will certainly be interesting. Clint Bowyer has never finished worse than 12th on this track, although he's been much faster in the spring. His last three Crown Royal 400s ended in a sweep of the top 10 and a victory this spring, while his last two Chevy Rock & Roll 400s ended in precisely 12th. That gives Ragan plenty of margin to finish ahead of the No. 07 and as a rookie last year, the AAA driver finished third in this event and was chasing the leaders down in the closing laps. His other two attempts at Richmond, however, ended in a 20th- and 17th-place finish. Meanwhile, Kahne is hovering like Hanna. His last two Richmond races ended in top-10 finishes and he won his first Cup race in the 2005 Chevy American Revolution 400.

Caution

We're not ready to red flag Jeff Gordon, but fans who think he is safe this weekend need to think again. The No. 24 DuPont Chevy has been schizophrenic all season as he walks a razor thin line looking for a suitable setup. Two of Gordon's last three efforts in this race ended in 30-something finishes, and with a playoff spot on the line in 2005, he limped home 30th. In fact, in four Richmond races that season and the next he averaged a finish of only 35th. The glimmer of hope is that last year in the COT he finished fourth in both Richmond events, added another top-10 this spring and in 10 short track races since the beginning of 2007, he has only one result worse than 11th.

Fantasy Power Ranking:
Short tracks Last Three Years

Driver, Power Average*

Jeff Gordon, 6.87
Kyle Busch, 7.80
Tony Stewart, 8.12
Denny Hamlin, 8.68
Kevin Harvick, 8.71
Dale Earnhardt Jr., 9.72
Joey Logano, 12.00
Jimmie Johnson, 12.33
Clint Bowyer, 13.52
Carl Edwards, 13.65
Ryan Newman, 13.71
Matt Kenseth, 14.80
Jeff Burton, 14.98
Kasey Kahne, 15.51
Greg Biffle, 15.87
Kurt Busch, 16.49
Mark Martin, 17.85
David Ragan, 21.62
Jamie McMurray, 21.98
Martin Truex Jr., 22.74
Juan Montoya, 23.12
Bobby Labonte, 23.73
Elliott Sadler, 24.29
Ken Schrader, 25.10
Casey Mears, 25.36
David Reutimann, 25.67
Dave Blaney, 26.39
Scott Riggs, 27.45
Brian Vickers, 28.00
Reed Sorenson, 28.49
Regan Smith, 29.02
Travis Kvapil, 29.19
Johnny Sauter, 29.36
Tony Raines, 29.48
Paul Menard, 30.10
Bill Elliott, 32.63
David Gilliland, 32.67
Kyle Petty, 32.68
Patrick Carpentier, 32.88
Michael Waltrip, 33.52
Sterling Marlin, 33.68
A.J. Allmendinger, 34.22
Michael McDowell, 34.47
Joe Nemechek, 34.90
Robby Gordon, 35.18
Sam Hornish Jr., 36.09

* The Power Average is the average finish during the last three years, plus the number of laps spent in the lead, in the top five, and in the top 10 expressed as if they were finishing results. For example a driver who has led the most laps receives a hypothetical first-place finish, the driver who leads the second most laps receives a hypothetical second-place finish, and so on. This rewards drivers who competed at the front of the pack for the majority of the race, even if an unfortunate event takes them out of contention at the very end of the race. A driver's recent record in the support series is also factored in, as is his average running position as provided by NASCAR Statistical Services. Failures to qualify are credited to the driver as if they were a finishing position (i.e. the first non-qualifier is assigned a 44th-place finish).

The short tracks are Richmond International Raceway, Bristol Motor Speedway and Martinsville Speedway.