By Rick Hawes
August 8, 2008 11:46am CDT

This is the sixth of an eight part series that will take you on a tour of each of the 32 NFL teams with a focus on historical data, team situations, current events and potential deep sleepers. I will also throw in some of my gut feelings culled from two decades of participating in this hobby, which will hopefully assist you in making some sound decisions during your upcoming drafts.

With that said, let’s take a gander at the NFC North.

Chicago Bears
My mother taught me if I didn’t have anything good to say about a person or subject that I should probably just keep my pie hole shut. Unfortunately, if I followed her advice then this capsule featuring the Monsters of the Midway would be blank, because in reality there just isn’t much good to say as it pertains to the Bears.

At quarterback, Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton are engaged in a training camp battle, and neither player brings an impressive resume to the mix. Both of these young signal callers have thrown more interceptions than touchdowns during their respective careers, and though Grossman has the slight edge in experience, he needs to improve his decision-making skills while keeping the gunslinger mentality in check. They will alternate starting the first two preseason games as the coaching staff continues their evaluation process. Grossman has the stronger arm and the ability to go downfield to create vertical plays in the passing game, but Orton is more of a game manager and generally makes better decisions.

During the offseason, the organization allowed Bernard Berrian and Muhsin Muhammad to walk via free agency, leaving significant holes in the receiver corps. On the initial depth chart, Brandon Lloyd and Devin Hester are listed as the starters, but neither receiver instills fear in defensive coordinators. Lloyd was an unmitigated disaster for the past two seasons in Washington, and Hester has never started a game at wide receiver, though he did get his feet wet last year in limited duty. If I were going to take a shot in the dark it would be on Hester, who is somewhat of a novelty act, but definitely possesses the playmaking ability to turn every reception into a touchdown.

While the passing game appears to be a wasteland, there is some possible value at the tight end position, where Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark will likely be utilized heavily in two tight end sets. Last season the dynamic duo combined for 83 receptions, 936 yards and six scores. And given the state of the wide receiver corps, it’s not out of the question for one of them to lead the team in receptions. Olsen is a gifted athlete, an excellent route runner, and is a sneaky pick as your backup tight end. He posted 39 receptions, 391 yards and two scores last season. Keep in mind, tight end is a position that players often make substantial progress during their second season.

As for the offensive backfield, the Bears released Cedric Benson following two alcohol-related arrests, and selected running back Matt Forte with the 44th overall pick in the second round of the 2008 NFL draft. He was on the Bears radar prior to the draft due to a strong performance at the Indianapolis Scouting Combine. Forte (6-foot-2, 222-pounds) is a big, strong, hard-charging one-cut runner, who displayed toughness by starting every game during his senior season at Tulane, despite returning from a torn left meniscus and ACL, which he suffered towards the end of his junior year. Forte finished his senior campaign as the nation’s second leading rusher, compiling 361 carries for 2,127 yards and 23 touchdowns. The Bears envision him as a three-down running back at the professional level, a viewpoint that makes sense given he compiled 103 receptions for 985 yards and five touchdowns as a receiver out of the backfield during his collegiate career. Forte received accolades from the coaching staff for his performance in mini-camps, and he is currently listed on the first rung of the depth chart based on an impressive training camp. Forte will face plenty of eight man fronts while running behind a shoddy offensive line, but everything I have heard about him this offseason has been positive. I suspect he will share carries early in the season with Adrian Peterson and possibly Kevin Jones down the road, but Forte will have the opportunity to carry the brunt of the rushing load if he continues to show positive progress.


Detroit Lions
The major headline in the Motor City during the offseason was the termination of offensive coordinator Mike Martz. During his two-year tenure, Detroit fielded an unbalanced offense featuring a 65-35 pass-to-run ratio, while compiling the fewest rushing attempts in the league. Over the past two campaigns the Lions finished 31st or worse in rushing yards, lost the time of possession battle by an average of 5:00 minutes per game and scored only 22 touchdowns on the ground. The offensive line struggled, giving up 117 sacks, while the running game averaged only 3.8 yards per carry.

To remedy the situation, the organization promoted offensive line coach Jim Colletto to serve as the offensive coordinator. Colletto, who has over 40 years of combined experience at the college and professional levels, served as the Baltimore Ravens’ offensive line coach from 1999-2004, and held the same position in Oakland during 2005. Baltimore finished first in the league in rushing in 2003, averaging 167.1 yards per game behind Jamal Lewis, who rushed for 2,066 yards during that campaign, and the Ravens finished 11th or better in rushing four different times during his six-year tenure. Colletto will attempt to balance the offense while implementing the Denver-flavored zone-blocking scheme as the foundation for the ground game. Normally, offensive line coaches tend to be conservative in nature, so the Lions, who lost the time of possession battle consistently over the past two seasons, should feature the running backs in this scheme. Colletto will simplify the terminology and implement less multiple receiver sets, which should reduce the number of sacks, and could provide more targets for the primary wide receivers.

As for the players involved in the scheme, there have been rumors that quarterback Jon Kitna could lose his job if the team’s win-loss record heads south during the season. Kitna will turn 36 shortly after the campaign starts, so the organization won’t hesitate to replace him down the line if the team is unsuccessful on his watch. I consider this even money given the fact Detroit has had just one winning season in the past decade. Since 2000, the Lions have posted a 40-88 record, including six seasons of double-digit losses. I expect Dan Orlovsky or Drew Stanton to see action this year, probably during the second half of the season. At running back, Tatum Bell tested free agency, but ultimately agreed to a one-year, $1.6 million deal to stay in Motown. The coaching staff fought for the return of Bell, suggesting he will receive increased playing time. However, you should temper your expectations for Bell, who has proven to be a back best utilized in small doses because he tends to wear down after 10-15 carries. He isn’t a featured runner, which led the organization to select running back Kevin Smith in the third round of the draft. Smith was impressive in mini-camps, and he has carried that performance over into training camp, having shown he can pick up blitzes and catch the ball out of the backfield. Smith has been receiving first team repetitions, while Bell is missing time for personal reasons. I think Smith has a solid shot at pushing for significant playing time, sooner rather than later. Wide receivers Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson should be solid contributors, as long as Kitna can hold onto his job. In my opinion, Johnson is the more skilled player; he just needs to prove he can stay healthy following an injury-plagued rookie campaign.

At the end of the day, I can’t shake my feelings that this is going to be another ugly campaign in the Motor City. Something about a first-time offensive coordinator who has never called plays, an average field general, and an organization with a losing tradition makes it difficult for me to endorse Detroit players for fantasy purposes.

Green Bay Packers
I know everyone in the free world is burnt out on the Brett Favre story, but I wanted to take just a few minutes to provide some insight on the situation. Many of you are probably asking why the Packers brain trust would be ready to divorce themselves from Favre, a future first-ballot Hall of Fame field general who put football back on the map in Green Bay. I’ve been listening intently to the talking heads in the media, and in my opinion most of them aren’t mentioning the key factors causing the dissension between the two parties. If you look at the chart below you will see some of the reasons that management is ready to move on from the Favre era. This chart depicts Favre’s statistical output over the final eight games of the past three regular seasons.

Year	Completion %	Pass Yards Per Game	TDs	INTs	QB Rating
2007	66.5	218.6	15	7	94.9
2006	54.1	242.1	7	11	66.1
2005	57.2	227.1	5	15	60.5

Facts are facts, and in two of the past three seasons Favre’s numbers have regressed during the second half of the season. In the final eight games of 2005-06, he threw 12 touchdowns against 26 interceptions, while posting a 63.3 QB Rating. In 2007, he performed well during the second half of the season; however, to place things in proper perspective we have to look at his most recent playoff failures. In two playoff games during 2004 and 2007 (which terminated those seasons), Favre combined to complete 60.2 percent of his pass attempts for 452 yards with three touchdowns against six interceptions, resulting in a 63.1 QB Rating. While there have been some bright spots over the past few seasons, there have also been trends that cause reason for concern, especially for a player who will turn 39 years of age in October. Regardless of how well Favre played last year, he is a viable candidate to hit the senior citizen wall in the very near future. Bottom line … Favre has been threatening to retire since 2005. To use a poker analogy, he pushed all of his chips in and the organization finally called his bluff. With that said, I don’t want to sound like I’m dogging Favre. He has always been one of my favorite players and one of the few that I would have paid double the price of admission to watch play. His credentials are impeccable, including three NFL MVP awards, nine Pro Bowl appearances, seven All-Pro selections, a slew of individual records and the Super Bowl championship in 1996.

Given the recent news that the Favre era has officially ended in Wisconsin, it’s time to look at what type of effect quarterback Aaron Rodgers will have on the Packers offense.

Head coach Mike McCarthy has been a breath of fresh air for the Green Bay organization. During the past two seasons he has compiled a 21-11 record with one playoff appearance. During his watch, the Packers have fielded a pass-heavy offense featuring a 59-41 pass-to-run ratio. The organization utilizes the West Coast offensive philosophy that relies on rhythm and timing, along with a combination of quick drops and high-percentage throws, which transforms the passing game into an extension of the running game. This allows an offense to control the time of possession while utilizing the running backs and tight ends in the passing game. In addition, several variations of intermediate slant routes are utilized, which allows the wide receivers to turn short passes into long gains.

Last year the team finished second in the league in total offense (370.7 yards-per-game) and passing offense (270.9 yards-per-game), which represented improvements in both categories over the 2006 season. The offense was not only efficient but explosive as well. The Packers converted 43 percent of their third down opportunities (86 of 202), finishing eighth in this drive-sustaining category. Meanwhile, the passing game produced 52 plays of 20+ yards and 17 plays of 40+ yards, ranking in the top-10 in the league in both categories. The running game, which has been far less successful, is based on the zone-blocking scheme that is gaining popularity in the league. Unfortunately, Green Bay has finished 21st or worse in rushing offense the past two seasons.

The Packers drafted quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the first round of the 2005 NFL draft, with plans to groom him to take over for Favre after he rode off into the sunset. Well, the time has officially come for the fourth-year veteran to step up to the plate and assume the starter’s role. In limited mop up duty, Rodgers has completed 59.3 percent of his pass attempts for 329 yards and one touchdown against one interception, for a 73.3 QB Rating. The first red flag we see when evaluating his numbers are the nine sacks in only 59 pass attempts. That’s a nasty ratio, and provides some insight into his decision-making skills.

Obviously, his body of work isn’t sufficient enough to arrive at any major conclusions regarding his probability for success; instead we will attempt to break down some of his positive and negative attributes. Rodgers, who was considered the top-ranked player at his position by many pundits upon entering the league, possesses a strong arm capable of making all of the NFL throws. His mechanics and fundamentals are above average, and he has flashed the ability to read his progressions, which is paramount in the West Coast scheme. It also won’t hurt matters that Rodgers has a talented corps of skill position players around him, along with an offensive line that has allowed Favre to be sacked only 43 times in the past two seasons.
On the negative side of the ledger, Rodgers has limited experience and his decision-making skills are untested at the professional level. There are also major questions about his ability to absorb punishment. Despite playing in only seven games, Rodgers has been sidelined on two different occasions with a broken foot and a pulled hamstring.

While he seemingly possesses the necessary skill set to succeed, there are significant roadblocks that could impede his development. First and foremost will be his ability to handle the pressure of following a legend. It has been 253 games since any quarterback other than Favre started a game for the Packers. Simply put, Favre is a god in Green Bay and his enormous shadow will be a constant presence at Lambeau field in the coming seasons. It’s never easy to follow a legend in any career field – and in the NFL it can be downright brutal. In addition, the West Coast offensive system is difficult to master. Keep in mind that even Favre was frustrated in the scheme during his first couple of seasons in the league. During his first 31 starts, Favre averaged 210.6 passing yards per game with 37 touchdown passes against 37 interceptions, resulting in a mediocre 78.7 QB Rating. Rodgers should know the scheme from a mental perspective given the fact he has had ample time to learn the playbook over the past three seasons; however, the physical repetitions haven’t been there, with Favre taking every snap since hell last froze over. Rodgers has had the entire offseason program to hone his craft, but at the end of the day practice repetitions won’t be able to simulate the various defensive looks he will see on game day.

2008 Fantasy Outlook: Last season, Favre had one of the best seasons of his illustrious 17-year career, completing 66.5 percent of his pass attempts for 4,155 yards and 28 touchdowns against 15 interceptions, good for a 95.7 QB Rating. In redraft formats, Favre would have been a top-10 selection at his position this season, which is definitely too lofty a locale for Rodgers. I expect McCarthy to balance out the pass-heavy scheme to at least a 55-45 pass-to run ratio, and he could make further adjustments depending on how Rodgers progresses. At this early stage of the offseason, the Fanball staff projects Rodgers with 3,400 yards and 21 touchdown passes against 15 interceptions, numbers based in large part on the difficulty of the offensive scheme. These numbers place him 22nd in our current quarterback rankings. Keep in mind, this rating is subject to change based on the fact that Favre has officially exited stage left, and we will also be keeping a close eye on training camp and his performances during the preseason. Two key points: the organization currently has no experienced backup quarterback on the roster. If Rodgers were to go down with a lengthy injury, it could cripple the statistical output of the skill position players, particularly in the passing game. This should always be factored into your draft day decisions on two players who are similarly ranked. And the second key point, as pointed out by my esteemed colleague Ted Carlson in the Fanball Draft kit, is that Rodgers is a Jeff Tedford product. Some of the other NFL quarterbacks who have been mentored by Tedford include Trent Dilfer, Akili Smith, Billy Volek, A.J. Feeley, Joey Harrington and Kyle Boller. That isn’t exactly a list that will give you warm fuzzies while contemplating the selection of Rodgers this season.

Minnesota Vikings
In 2007 the Vikings offense was paced by a punishing ground attack that ranked first in the league, averaging 164.6 yards per game. The star of the show was first-round draft choice Adrian Peterson, who compiled 257 touches for 1,609 yards and 13 touchdowns. He averaged 5.6 yards per carry, 14.1 yards per reception, posted six 100-yard rushing games and broke the NFL single-game rushing record with 296 yards against the San Diego Chargers. The precocious rookie also posted 43 carries of 10 or more yards en route to winning offensive rookie of the year honors and being named a starter in the Pro Bowl. The Vikings ran the ball so effectively that there were enough leftovers for running back Chester Taylor to also make a fantasy impact. Taylor compiled 186 touches for 1,125 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns. This statistical output transformed Taylor into an outstanding flex choice, but with the emergence of Peterson, he could receive less work in 2008. One key fact to keep in mind; Peterson has a past track record of durability issues including a dislocated shoulder (2004), high ankle sprain (2005) and broken clavicle (2006). In his inaugural professional campaign, Purple Jesus missed two complete games and was limited in several others due to a torn lateral collateral ligament in his right knee. This time next year, All Day could supplant LaDainian Tomlinson as the consensus No. 1 running back in fantasy football. However, he has to prove he can stay healthy first, something that is not a slam dunk given his physical running style, which includes a tendency to initiate contact with defenders.

Given the fact that quarterback Tarvaris Jackson only has 14 games of starting experience and the organization has improved the defense, it’s not much of a stretch to predict that the Vikings will pound the football again in 2008, as Minnesota faces a schedule which features 10 teams that finished 14th or worse in run defense last year. While conventional wisdom suggests Taylor is looking at a reduced role, I’m not so sure that there won’t be enough scraps for him to provide solid value, much like last season. What I’m getting at here … don’t sleep on Taylor, who currently carries an 8.10 ADP, and is generally the 36th running back off the board in 12-team leagues. For Peterson owners, it makes a lot of sense to invest an eighth round pick in a top-shelf insurance policy. For non-Peterson owners, it’s an excellent jack move, which could pay sweet dividends if the injury bug continues to dog Purple Jesus.