This is the fifth of an eight-part series that will take you on a tour of each of the 32 NFL teams with a focus on historical data, team situations, current events and potential deep sleepers. I will also throw in some of my gut feelings culled from two decades of participating in this hobby, which will hopefully assist you in making some sound decisions during your upcoming drafts.
With that said, let’s take a gander at the NFC East.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are blessed with a plethora of quality fantasy options. They are one of the few NFL teams that has a legitimate top-five fantasy candidate at each skill position on their roster. In 2007 Dallas was an offensive juggernaut under first-year offensive coordinator Jason Garrett, finishing third in total offense, fourth in passing offense and they scored 28.4 points per game, which ranked second in the league. As a result, Dallas had several skill position players named to the Pro Bowl, including
Tony Romo (4,211 yards, 37 touchdowns),
Marion Barber (12 touchdowns),
Terrell Owens (1,355 yards, 15 touchdowns) and
Jason Witten (96 receptions, 1,145 yards).
The Cinderella story continued for Romo, an undrafted free agent out of Eastern Illinois who has emerged as the Cowboys starting quarterback over the past 26 games. During this timeframe, Romo has completed 64.8 percent of his pass attempts for 7,114 yards with 55 touchdowns against 32 interceptions, good for a 96.5 QB rating. He has thrown for 300 yards 10 different times and has posted multiple touchdown passes 18 times. The latter is a really amazing statistic, as Romo has thrown two or more touchdowns in 69.2 percent of his starts.
Last year Romo became the first Cowboys’ quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards in a season, and he broke Danny White’s franchise record by tossing 36 touchdown passes. The biggest knock on the six-year veteran is his tendency to force throws into double coverage and his struggles in big games. Those struggles extend to the fantasy world, where there has been a statistical regression during Weeks 14-16 during his first two years as a starter. In six career fantasy playoff contests, Romo has averaged 240 yards per game, but he has thrown only seven touchdowns against eight interceptions. He has also been sacked 15 times, which equates to 33 percent of his sacks in just six of 26 games.
This two-year trend could be a total aberration, but it is definitely something to consider if you are the type of manager who selects an elite signal caller early in your draft. Romo hasn’t totally disappeared during the fantasy playoffs, but his play has definitely trended southward during this important time of the season.
Keep in mind, there will be also considerable pressure this season in Dallas. Owner Jerry Jones has extended the contracts of most of his proven veterans, leading to increased expectations. Last year’s postseason loss to the New York Giants marked the fifth one-and-done playoff appearance for Dallas since 1998, and postseason futility is becoming commonplace for the storied franchise that hasn’t won a playoff game since 1996. Wade Phillips is 0-4 in the playoffs (as a head coach), and it’s extremely questionable whether his job security can withstand another failure in the postseason tournament. In closing, Romo has settled into the high-rent district of fantasy quarterbacks, but the late-season swoons are definitely a concern. The pressure is only going to intensify in 2008.
New York Giants
Following a drama-filled offseason, the Giants finally succumbed and traded disgruntled tight end
Jeremy Shockey to the New Orleans Saints for second- and fifth-round draft picks. The emergence of
Kevin Boss and the potential distraction of Shockey in training camp provided the impetus to get the deal consummated.
Shockey has never navigated the full 16-game schedule during his six-year career, but he has ranked in the top seven at his position in the fantasy realm in four of the past six seasons, and has never finished lower than the 11th ranked tight end during this timeframe. The trade of Shockey will negatively impact the passing offense, and don’t forget he is also one of the more prominent run blocking tight ends in the league. Last year in the first 14 games with him in the lineup, the Giants averaged 127 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry. Over the last five weeks of the season (including the playoffs) without Shockey, the ground game averaged only 100.8 yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry. Shockey was disgruntled and felt under utilized in the offensive scheme, but the fact remains that he was a four-time Pro Bowler, and his contributions as a receiver and blocker will be missed.
With that said, I will attempt to decipher what his subtraction from the offense will mean for the remaining skill position players on the depth chart.
Eli Manning- ADP: 8.12- This transaction cannot be construed as a positive development for Manning, given the fact that replacement tight end
Kevin Boss has only 17 games of experience (six starts) on his resume. During his rookie season (including the playoffs), Boss compiled 14 receptions for 208 yards and one score. While Boss has displayed plenty of potential, he’s attempting to fill the shoes of a four-time Pro Bowler, which is not an easy thing to do under the glaring spotlight of the Big Apple. The fantasy nation appears to agree with my assessment of the situation, as Manning’s ADP has descended from 8.02 to 8.12 in 12-team mock drafts since the trade was announced on July 21.
Brandon Jacobs- ADP: 3.09- The removal of the second best option in the passing game could mean more carries for Jacobs this year. It should also provide a minor uptick in the reception numbers of the running back corps, as a whole. And don’t underestimate the effect the loss of Shockey could have on the Giants’ running game. As I mentioned earlier, despite his diva attitude, Shockey is one of the best blocking tight ends in the league. Jacobs’ ADP has remained steady despite the fact that offensive coordinator Kelvin Gilbride recently stated that he would feature the hot hand in the backfield each week.
Plaxico Burress- ADP: 3.06- I originally thought the departure of Shockey would hasten the contract extension for Burress, who will be featured more heavily in the offense this season. However, the trade hasn’t resulted in new financial rewards for Burress, who has averaged a statistical line of 69-1,075-9 over the past three seasons. Burress will likely encounter additional double teams this season, but he possesses the size and skill set to overcome the extra attention. There should also be additional opportunities for
Amani Toomer or the other
Steve Smith to step up to the plate, and increase their respective numbers this season. Much like Jacobs, Burress’ ADP has remained steady since the trade was announced.
Kevin Boss- Prior to the trade his ADP was off-the-chart and Boss still isn’t being selected in the top-20 tight ends. But he has to enter the conversation as a backup with upside potential in 12-team leagues. The second-year tight end brings limited experience to the mix, so be careful about investing too heavily in a commodity who will likely fall short of the production that Shockey has provided the past few seasons.
Philadelphia Eagles
Brian Westbrook has developed into one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL, while supplanting quarterback
Donovan McNabb as the most important player on the team. Last year, he compiled a league best (and franchise record) 2,104 yards from scrimmage, despite playing for much of the season on a balky knee. Westbrook set career highs in carries (278), rushing yards (1,333) receiving yards (771) and touchdowns (12). He has compiled 4,020 yards from scrimmage over the past two years, finishing as a top-five fantasy player overall in PPR leagues and top-10 overall in non-PPR formats. Last year, Westbrook was on the field for 84.7 percent of the Eagles’ offensive snaps, leading the league in this category. While he has been extremely productive, the chart below depicts a fairly heavy workload for a 5-foot-10, 203 pound running back that turns 29 years of age prior to the 2008 season.
| Year |
Carries |
Yards |
Receptions |
Yards |
Combined TDs
|
| 2007 |
278 |
1,333 |
90 |
771 |
12
|
| 2006 |
240 |
1,217 |
77 |
699 |
11
|
| Totals |
518 |
2,550 |
167 |
1470 |
23
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
During his six-year career, Westbrook has never navigated the complete 16-game schedule. He missed seven starts from 2004-2005, landing on injured reserve due to first-degree Lisfranc sprain in his right foot in 2005. Westbrook has also missed one game in each of the past two seasons due to inflammation in his knees, a problem that seems to flare up on a weekly basis. During the 2006 season, Westbrook was a staple on the injury report due to his right knee, and in 2007 he suffered an abdominal strain and dealt with inflammation in his right knee.
To be perfectly clear, I’m not trying to start a health scare with Westbrook, because he has been extremely durable the past two seasons. However, proactive managers should always be thinking ahead when a player has had red flags regarding his past health. During the offseason, the Eagles obtained running back
Lorenzo Booker from the Miami Dolphins for a fourth-round draft choice. Booker is 5-foot-10, 195 pounds and possesses a skill set similar to Westbrook, making him the logical choice to pick up the slack in the event of catastrophic injury. During his rookie season in Miami, Booker compiled six or more receptions in five of the last six games and averaged 4.5 yards per carry. Booker is a dazzling athlete who excels at changing directions, and provides an excellent insurance policy for Westbrook owners. In my opinion, if you draft Westbrook early this year, then you should definitely invest a late-round pick on the Booker handcuff.
Washington Redskins
During the offseason, head coach Joe Gibbs retired after leading the Redskins for the past four seasons. Owner Daniel Snyder interviewed 10 candidates before settling on Jim Zorn, who has served as the Seattle quarterbacks coach for the past seven years. Next, the organization hired Tennessee running backs coach Sherman Smith to serve as the new offensive coordinator. Smith is somewhat of a figurehead because Zorn will call the plays and implement his flavor of the West Coast offensive system, which will be blended with the running scheme of the previous regime.
Zorn monitored the development of three-time Pro Bowl quarterback
Matt Hasselbeck in Seattle, and has been working on improving the footwork and mechanics of quarterback
Jason Campbell, who is entrenched as the starter. The West Coast offense takes time to assimilate, and Campbell will be tasked with learning his third new offense in four years, so I expect the passing game to struggle at least early in the season. The spotlight will be glaring on Zorn, who has never held a position above quarterback coach during his 12-year professional coaching career. Zorn will have a full plate implementing a new offensive scheme and handling the play calling duties. The latter could be an adventure, as Zorn has never performed the task during his NFL career.
As a result of the new scheme the Redskins have three players on the roster that could provide substantial production for your fantasy team. The coaching staff will lean on the running game during the first half of the season, and possibly beyond. As such, running back
Clinton Portis, who has compiled 1,262 or more yards in five of the past six seasons, should be utilized heavily both as a runner and receiver. Make sure you handcuff
Ladell Betts later in your drafts, as increased workload sometimes leads to injuries, and Betts represents a quality insurance policy. Next on the list is tight end
Chris Cooley, who will be an excellent safety valve target for Campbell while he receives on-the-job training in the West Coast offense. Over the past three seasons, Cooley has produced an average statistical line of 64-764-7, and he’s on the cusp of joining the elite players at his position. Last, but not least, wide receiver
Santana Moss could thrive running the quick-hitting slant routes, which are prevalent in the scheme. Moss always seems to be nicked with nagging injuries, but he has proven to be productive in the past. Last year, he posted 37 receptions, 511 yards and three touchdowns, during the final seven weeks of the season. The organization has added some new rookie weapons including wide receivers
Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly and tight end
Fred Davis, which makes the future look bright, but it will take time for Zorn’s flavor of the West Coast offense to take hold in the Nation’s Capital.
