By Brian Jonas
August 4, 2008 2:01pm CDT

There must be stacks of incriminating photos of octogenarian Detroit Lions owner William Clay Ford, Sr. that Lions CEO and General Manager Matt Millen keeps under lock and key somewhere. How else can one explain that Millen still has his job after the sheer buffoonery and bone-headed decisions that he's made during his tenure?

Millen was hired directly from the broadcast booth after spending a dozen years playing in the NFL and winning three Super Bowl rings with three different teams. That success has never transferred from the gridiron to the front office, which was not too surprising considering Millen had no front-office experience, and more importantly, no prior player development experience. Consider for a moment that in six of the last seven drafts, the Lions have had a top-10 first-round selection (including three picks in the top 3) with only wide receivers Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson to show for it.

Williams was the seventh overall pick by the Lions in 2004. That year's draft class featured six eventual Pro Bowlers among the first eight selections, and nine in the first 14 overall picks. They included; Larry Fitzgerald (#3), Philip Rivers (#4), Sean Taylor (#5), Kellen Winslow II (#6), Roy Williams (#7) DeAngelo Hall (#8), Ben Roethlisberger (#11), Jonathan Vilma (#12), and Tommie Harris (#14). It also featured two Super Bowl winning quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning. A talent-rich draft to say the least. Millen's success in landing a player with Williams' skills probably had more to do with probabilities than draft acumen. With as many studs that came out of this draft, even Millen would have had a hard time screwing it up.

NFL CAREER
2004: 14 games, 54 receptions, 817 yards, 8 TDs, 15.1 YPC. Williams had an impressive season by rookie standards. He did, however, miss two games with a sprained ankle.

2005: 13 games, 45 receptions, 687 yards, 8 TDs, 15.3 YPC. A bit of a sophomore slump blamed on injury once again, as a quadriceps strain sidelined Williams for three games. Despite missing three games, he still managed to duplicate his eight touchdowns from his rookie season.

2006: 16 games, 82 receptions, 1,310 yards, 7 TDs, 16.0 YPC. Avoided the injury bug, and played in all 16 games. He went on to post career bests in games started, receptions, receiving yards, and yards per catch.

2007: 12 games, 64 receptions, 838 yards, 5 TDs, 13.1 YPC. Landed on the injured reserve list and missed the final four games of the season with a strained knee ligament. At this juncture in his career, it would not be a stretch to brand Williams as "injury prone."

TEAM SCENARIO
Team tumult occurred early this year in Motown, as the Lions parted ways with offensive coordinator Mike Martz, who quickly landed on his feet in San Francisco. Detroit's offensive line coach Jim Colleto, was promoted to replace Martz as the Lions OC. The player most dissatisfied with this move must have been quarterback Jon Kitna, considering the high percentage of pass plays (60-40 pass versus run) that Martz typically inserts into the offensive game plan. During Kitna's two-year tenure working with Martz, his yardage numbers exploded, as he passed for an average of 4,138 yards. On the downside, his interceptions outnumbered his touchdowns in both years, and he was sacked an eye-popping (literally) 114 times in two years, an average of 57 per season. Somebody call the medic! Now that Martz's pass first and ask questions later offensive philosophy is being peddled in the Bay Area, Kitna should remain a bit more vertical under Colleto's more balanced offensive attack. Opponents' defenses will need to guard more against the run and shouldn't be able to just tee off on Kitna. An upright Kitna means more opportunities for Williams and company to make some plays.

The Lions addressed their offensive line woes immediately in the first round of this year's draft by selecting a mountain of a man in Boston College's offensive guard Gosder Cherilus. Cherilus towers over most at 6' 7", and weighs in at 315 lbs. That would be your heavy-duty model road grader that will plow the way for their third-round pick, rookie running back Kevin Smith out of Central Florida. Smith replaces Kevin Jones, who was cut in the offseason. Mentoring Smith will be Tatum Bell, who should see some carries early in the season to ease Smith's role into the offense. Considering Bell couldn't hang on to the starter's role when given the chance, it would seem the position is Smith's to lose.

2008 UPSIDE
When Williams was shut down for the season because of his knee injury, it was determined that he didn't require surgery to repair the knee. Definitely a silver lining, if ever there was one. Williams, therefore, has had ample time in the offseason to rest the knee and prepare for the rigors of training camp. He says he will be ready to roll by the time camp starts.

The more conservative and balanced offensive schemes that Jim Colleto will be employing this year could greatly benefit Williams, as well as Calvin Johnson. Gone will be many of the three and four wide receiver sets that Martz was so keen on using. In particular, Martz's "teacher's pet" Shaun McDonald (a holdover from his St. Louis days), will probably see a decent portion of his career numbers from last year (79 receptions, 943 yards, 6 TDs) be absorbed by Williams and Johnson in the new-look offense. With fewer wideouts on the field on any given play, Kitna has fewer choices to throw the ball to, and Williams should have the opportunity to put up numbers more closely resembling his 2006 season, assuming of course he remains healthy throughout the season.

This season Williams will be extra motivated due to this season being his contract year. If there's one common thread among athletes regardless of sport, it's the bling factor (with few exceptions). It's all about who has the biggest diamond earrings, or whose rims on their Hummer are most pimped out and "spinney," or whose suits cost more than the gross national product of Burundi. Well, you get the idea. These luxuries don't come free my friends, and Williams will be playing for his piece of the pie, so...yeah, you could say he's motivated.

2008 DOWNSIDE
Williams' downside seems to be his ability to stay healthy for a full season. He accomplished this feat just once in his four-year career. In the season he did play for a full 16-game slate, he put up roughly top-10 wide receiver numbers. We know he has the size and ability to dominate defensive backs, but the question is whether his body is willing.

The other negative for Williams may turn out to be an expanded role for Calvin Johnson, who is Reggie Wayne to Williams' Marvin Harrison (during the early years of Wayne's career). The talent of Johnson forces the Lions to utilize him as much as they can, which could potentially temper Williams' numbers.

OVERALL FANTASY IMPACT
Again, the health of Williams will determine a lot this season. If he remains healthy for a full season, you could expect numbers similar to his 2006 campaign. Assisting Williams in his quest to return to prominence is the new offensive philosophy of Jim Colleto, who will utilize Williams and Johnson as a 1-2 punch, rather than relying on the crowded four-receiver set that was in place last season under Mike Martz. While it is likely that Calvin Johnson will see an expanded role in this new offense, the Lions could feature their own version of the Arizona Cardinals attack, mimicking Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Kitna is not unlike Warner in his abilities and "gunslinger" mentality, so it's conceivable that this duo in Detroit is poised to break out, and both eclipse the 1,000-yard mark. The question will be who will receive the "lion's share" of touchdowns between the two.