By Ted Carlson
July 30, 2008 12:26pm CDT

Josh Smith, Luol Deng, Andre Iguodala, and Ben Gordon may tell you that the NBA offseason is far from over, but we’re not letting those restricted free agents stop us from conducting an early mock draft. Much could obviously change between now and October, especially if any injuries or surprises pop up during the Olympics. However, it’s never too soon to start thinking about 2008-09 drafts.

Note: Points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, three-pointers made, field goal percentage, free-throw percentage, and turnovers are all considered for this mock. In general, though, I tried not to pigeon-hole the draft by choosing one strict scoring system or league style.

1.01 G Chris Paul, Hornets: It’s a four-man race for the top spot, but I’m running with Paul until further notice. His outstanding numbers grew throughout the 2007-08 season, and he averages fewer turnovers than most elite guards.

1.02. G Kobe Bryant, Lakers: The Pau Gasol acquisition didn’t slow down his numbers one bit. The only concern will be how he heals following post-Olympics surgery on his right pinkie.

1.03. F LeBron James, Cavaliers: When you’re splitting hairs, a 71.2 free-throw percentage and 3.4 turnovers stick out. It’s awfully hard to pass on his greatness and potential when you are sitting at No. 1 and No. 2, though.

1.04. F/C Amare Stoudemire, Suns: If you’re aiming to build around a premium position, Amare is your man. He is the fourth of the Big Four because his rebounds and blocks slipped after Shaq arrived and because Mike D’Antoni left town.

1.05. F Kevin Garnett, Celtics: The points and rebounds were way down in 2007-08 due in part to a second-half injury and the C’s sticking it in cruise control. KG won’t bounce back to his Wolves’ digits, but he remains an excellent fantasy building block.

1.06. F Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks: The German has played at least 76 games in nine straight seasons and is a lock for at least 23 points, 8.5 boards, three assists, and quality shooting digits. It doesn’t get much safer than this.

1.07. F Shawn Marion, Heat: The Matrix remains on the trading block, but I expect a bounceback campaign no matter where he lands. It is probably best to simply ignore those ugly stats he posted in 16 games with the Heat last year.

1.08. G Deron Williams, Jazz: You could make strong arguments for a lot of different players here, but I’m opting for a younger talent on the rise. The turnovers are too high and the threes and steals are too low, but you won’t find a player without flaws at this point in the proceedings.

1.09. G Steve Nash, Suns: At 34 and with D’Antoni gone, Nash brings some worries, but you have to still like his excellent shooting percentages along with the copious assists and solid threes.

1.10. F Elton Brand, 76ers: He might tick slightly higher if he has C eligibility in your league. The 76ers craved a low-post scorer, and they won’t hesitate to feed Elton the rock.

1.11. F/C Chris Bosh, Raptors: His up-and-down 2007-08 was frustrating at time, but the addition of Jermaine O’Neal and consistency at the point should help. At 24, his game should still be on the rise.

1.12. G Dwyane Wade, Heat: If Wade looks strong and healthy in the Olympics, he’ll be tough to pass on his tremendous upside at this first turn. Dwyane could be out to prove something after last season’s debacle.

2.13. F Josh Smith, Hawks: At the first turn, you can opt to pick two similar players and dominate certain categories or obtain two complements. I chose the latter, as the Wade-Smith combo gives this club a decent start in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks.

2.14. G Baron Davis, Clippers: Someone in your league will probably take Baron the first round, but I’m putting him in the second frame. After logging 82 games in 2007-08, he is now up to an average of 60 games played over the last six seasons. Neat.

2.15. G Allen Iverson, Nuggets: I followed up Philly’s newest star (Brand) with their old icon. Iverson’s steals and assists help fill in Brand’s gaps, and the combination makes for a strong fantasy base.

2.16. F/C Dwight Howard, Magic: Yes, I know he’s a killer in both turnovers and free throws, but the first-round pick (Nash) helps offset the latter. One or two more decent shooters from the charity stripe will put this club in good standing there.

2.17. F/C Marcus Camby, Clippers: Consider me a strong Camby doubter, but even I acknowledge how wonderful he’s been in the last two seasons. Expect his boards and blocks to drop as he shares with Chris Kaman.

2.18. G Gilbert Arenas, Wizards: After taking the worst scorer of the first round (Marion), I came back with a guy who can fill it up. Arenas is due to rise if his injury concerns fade during training camp and the preseason.

2.19. G Chauncey Billups, Pistons: I worry about the potential rise of Rodney Stuckey, but like Dirk in round one, Billups is a low-risk pick who always delivers. Admittedly, this squad lacks some pop.

2.20. F Danny Granger, Pacers: I couldn’t leave the top-20 without putting Granger in there. His across-the-board numbers were excellent over the second half of last season, and he could be even better in 2008-09. There’s a lot to love about Danny.

2.21. F/C Al Jefferson, Wolves: Grabbing Jefferson after taking Stoudemire in the first round seems redundant, but in many fantasy leagues, that’s the strategy. Whether we’re talking weekly head-to-head or season-long roto, this big-ball squad is off to a strong start.

2.22. G/F Paul Pierce, Celtics: The Truth saw his scoring total drop last year, but he remains solid across the board. Teaming him up with LeBron gives this team an excellent base in everything but turnovers.

2.23. F/C Tim Duncan, Spurs: I’m not hurting for free-throw percentage after getting Kobe in round one, and Duncan fills in the one stat (blocks) that Bryant doesn’t bring to the table. Plus, I’m pretty confident this All-Star tandem will give me close to 160 games.

2.24. G/F Andre Iguodala, 76ers: Between Paul and Iguodala, you’ve basically wrapped up steals while giving yourself a strong (or at least decent) start in everything but blocks. Caron Butler was another option, but he brings more of an injury history.

3.25. C Yao Ming, Rockets: Three straight seasons with fewer than 60 games played is a major concern, and Pau Gasol is arguably the safer pick. But I’ll roll the dice after opening with Paul and Iguodala. Yao fills in the rebound and block gaps.

3.26. F Caron Butler, Wizards: As with Yao, the talent is there, but I believe the games played (63, 58) plus the return of Arenas will scare some people away. Butler is too talented to fall any further than this, though.

3.27. G Jose Calderon, Raptors: After opening with LeBron and Pierce, I can go any direction here. It makes sense to either go big (Gasol) or small (Calderon). I chose the latter. Calderon averaged 13.0 points, 9.1 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.2 threes while shooting 53.1 percent as a starter last year.

3.28. G Monta Ellis, Warriors: Calderon would have been the perfect pick for a team set with bigs (Stoudemire, Jefferson), but I’m forced to gamble on a young stud with tremendous potential. Let’s hope Ellis’s assists rise with Baron out of town.

3.29. G Vince Carter, Nets: With Richard Jefferson gone, the revamped Nets clearly belong to Vince. This squad (KG, Granger) needs assists, but it’s tough to ignore the value Carter brings at this point in the mock.

3.30. F Rudy Gay, Grizzlies: Nowitzki and Billups don’t bring many steals or blocks to the table, but Gay brings both to the table along with his 20 points, 1.7 threes, and decent percentages.

3.31. F/C Pau Gasol, Lakers: Are there enough boards to go around for Kobe, Odom, Bynum, and Gasol? Will Bynum also affect Gasol’s blocks? This big man carries concerns (including injury worries), but he is also easily the best center left on the board.

3.32. G/F Jason Richardson, Bobcats: This squad needs someone who can fill it up, and Richardson is one of many players left on the board with excellent scoring skills. I can only hope he keeps up the copious threes with Larry Brown in town.

3.33. F Rashard Lewis, Magic: I tend to dislike Lewis, but he always delivers more fantasy value than I expect. He’ll help offset Howard’s free-throw percentage (a little) and will combine with Nash to rack up the threes.

3.34. G Manu Ginobili, Spurs: After going big (Brand) and small (Iverson), Ginobili complements with his solid across-the-board work. His role increased in 2007-08, and there’s no reason he’ll take a step back in 2008-09.

3.35. F Carlos Boozer, Jazz: This team is going to play Bosh at center, so blocks are pretty much out of the equation. Boozer is boring but steady. This team was already risky with Baron, and this shoe fits. Plus, there will be a quality guard available with pick 4.38.

3.36. F David West, Hornets: I have an assortment of options at this turn. There is no center I’d gamble on, but West, Carmelo Anthony, Joe Johnson, Lamar Odom, Antawn Jamison, Brandon Roy, Kevin Martin, Ron Artest, Tracy McGrady, and Hedo Turkoglu all crossed my mind. I chose the safe pick in West, but I could have also continued to gamble on a team that currently carries Wade and Josh Smith.