When
Peyton Manning is your brother, great things are expected each week. In the NFL world,
Eli Manning is a hero; the current Super Bowl Champion quarterback for the New York Giants. In the fantasy world,
Eli Manning is the ugly red-headed stepchild compared to Peyton. In a standard twelve team league, Eli was somewhere around the worst starting signal caller option and one of the best bench/bye week fill in quarterbacks in your league. He was 12th in the league in passing yards with 3,336 and 11th in touchdowns with 23. Unfortunately, he was tied for 2nd in the league in interceptions with a career high 20. With a 56.1% completion percentage, Manning hasn't developed into the stud quarterback the Giants hoped for and his lineage would suggest. The big question heading into 2008 is whether that Super Bowl ring, and therefore the monkey thrown way off his back, will lead to a more relaxed, confident, and imminently more successful quarterback.
NFL CAREER
2004: With seven starts and appearances in nine games, Manning threw for 1,043 yards completing 48.2% of his passes. With six touchdowns and nine interceptions, his statistics were what you'd expect from a rookie.
2005: A full season starter, Manning passed for 3,762 yards completing 52.8% of his passes. He made tremendous leaps and had 24 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.
2006: Another step forward, Manning started every game and threw for 3,244 yards and improved his completion rate to 57.7%. He repeated his 24 touchdowns but threw 18 interceptions.
2007: A slight step backwards, Manning threw for 3,336 yards and completed 56.1% of his passing attempts. With 23 touchdowns and 20 interceptions, his decision making ability came into question. Of course, he answered the critics with an unprecedented Super Bowl run. In the four game playoff season, he threw six touchdowns and just one interception. Just as impressive, he completed 72 of 119 attempts (60.5%).
TEAM SCENARIO
Coming off a Super Bowl victory, great things will once again be expected of the Giants. It's a bit unrealistic to expect them to repeat their road warrior ways. After losing their season opener in Dallas, the Giants rattled off 11 straight road victories counting the Super Bowl; an unprecedented run that's likely not to be repeated anytime soon. The offense returns mostly in tact, though questions still remain whether tight end
Jeremy Shockey will return with the team or be traded before camp starts. On the defensive side of the ball, team leader
Michael Strahan has decided to hang up the cleats in exchange for a microphone as he'll now be working the pre-game shows. The schedule is not kind to the Giants in 2008. In addition to their tough NFC East opponents, the Giants face Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cleveland in the AFC. All three teams that present tough match ups. Add in the always tough Seattle Seahawks, the up-and-coming Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers, as well as a Carolina team that should have
Jake Delhomme back, and the Giants clearly have their work cut out for them.
If they plan on proving they're for real, there are a number of areas that will need improvement. The Giants were a middle of the road offense in 2007. Ranking 15th in the league in yards per game with 331.4. You'd expect more with a #1 overall draft pick running the show at quarterback. Thanks to a deep backfield headlined by
Brandon Jacobs, the Giants were 4th in the league in rushing with 134.3 yards per game. When Jacobs went down,
Derrick Ward and
Ahmad Bradshaw filled in admirably. In fact, they created a new version of thunder and lightning for the Giants. With such an emphasis on the run, the Giants were a mere 21st in passing at 197.1 yards per game.
Superstar receiver
Plaxico Burress returns to anchor the receiving corp. Joining him will be veteran
Amani Toomer, Super Bowl hero
David Tyree and the steady, sure-handed
Steve Smith. In addition, the Giants added Mario Manningham in the draft. Manningham's attitude caused him to slip in the draft but the Giants hope uniting him with another Michigan alum,
Amani Toomer, and the talented Burress will cause him to right the ship and become an impact receiver. However, like always, the focus will be on a pounding running game.
On the defensive side, the loss of
Michael Strahan is a big one. Outside the statistics and on field accomplishments, the Giants lose an emotional leader in the defensive huddle and in the locker room. If there's a team that could overcome this loss, it's the Giants because
Justin Tuck has developed into an outstanding defensive end. Linebacker
Kawika Mitchell is gone, but the Giants are optimistic a healthy
Mathias Kiwanuka can help fill that void. The secondary has always been perceived as the weak link on the Giants but they played like a cohesive unit in 2007 ranking 11th in the league against the pass with 207.3 yards per game. Second year player
Aaron Ross will look to take that next step towards stardom and team with
Sam Madison in the secondary.
R.W. McQuarters and
Corey Webster round out the cornerbacks. The Giants addressed the secondary in the draft by taking the hard hitting safety from Miami, Kenny Phillips, in round one and cover corner Terrell Thomas out of USC at the end of round two.
The biggest question facing the Giants is whether they stay hungry and continue to improve or rest on their laurels and their new found bling turning them into a complacent team that opponents can run right over. The focus still remains on their leader,
Eli Manning.
2008 UPSIDE
Big. That's the best word to use in describing
Eli Manning's upside for 2008. He's clearly a talented quarterback who has the physical tools to succeed. All those who expected him to be his brother were simply fooling themselves as Peyton is a once-in–a-lifetime type of talent. Armed with a Super Bowl ring, Eli no longer has to answer to his critics, the New York media and especially the fans who now love him like a hero. He should now be able to concentrate on playing football and continuing his development. He's armed with a solid trio of running backs as well as a superstar receiver and a group of possession receivers with solid hands. The fact that the Giants won in the playoffs without tight end
Jeremy Shockey, should mean that Eli will no longer feel the need to force the passes to him in order to satisfy that monstrous ego.
There's basically four games you can focus on in making projections for Eli in 2008. They are the four post season games from last year. 117.1, 132.4, 72.0 (in horrible freezing conditions in Green Bay) and 87.3. Those are his quarterback ratings from the four playoff wins. When you add six touchdowns and one interception, you see a quarterback who finally came into his own. In addition, at least on paper, the schedule seems to be very kind to Eli. Other than the Steelers (3rd in the league against the pass) not a single opponent the Giants face in 2008 ranked in the top-12 in passing yards allowed. In fact, seven of the sixteen games on the 2008 calendar find a Giants opponent that ranked 20th or worse in passing yards allowed last year.
2008 DOWNSIDE
The negative is the Giants will always focus on the running game. When drafting a fantasy quarterback, you want your quarterback to be on a team that is going to air it out often. The Giants prefer the lengthy clock eating drive resulting in a rushing touchdown from inside the five yard line. In his three full seasons as a starter, Manning has had a four touchdown game only three times. He's only had a three touchdown game four times. There won't be many weeks where
Eli Manning alone can carry your fantasy team to victory.
The second concern is the man himself; a soft spoken southern boy with the deer in the headlights look. Was his playoff run merely a fluke with a hot team or did
Eli Manning really take a step towards greatness? All the great quarterbacks in the league have had the fire to succeed.
Tom Brady,
Peyton Manning,
Brett Favre, Dan Marino, the top gunslingers have always had that intangible factor that Eli seems to lack.
Finally, if the Giants renegotiate
Plaxico Burress' contract, will he return to being the moping malcontent of his past or will he continue to try to be one of the toughest covers in the NFL. How will
Jeremy Shockey's return to the offense affect Eli? If the Giants do trade Shockey, can
Kevin Boss be a weapon or will Eli simply force the ball to Burress too often, which may result in more of those interceptions.
OVERALL FANTASY IMPACT
Eli Manning is a fantasy worthy quarterback. The big question is where on that list he belongs. The vast majority of pundits will likely put Eli somewhere around the tail end of worthy starters in your league. It's probably a safe bet to follow that trend and not get overly excited about drafting Manning early based on his Super Bowl run in 2007. That being said, among those ranked in that area,
Eli Manning represents some great potential upside. At the very least, he'll be a consistent scoring option. While not leading you to victory too often, his consistent weekly statistics should not hurt you either. Consistency is something that's often overlooked when drafting a fantasy squad. It's better to score 100 points per week for 13 weeks than it is to score 90 points a week for 12 weeks and 190 once. The first team will make the playoffs while the second will likely be on the outside looking in.
