When the Colts spent their 2007 first-round draft pick on wide receiver
Anthony Gonzalez, he immediately became a favorite sleeper in re-draft leagues, and became a highly sought-after commodity in dynasty leagues as well. Many hoped he'd re-enact
Brandon Stokley's 2004 season from the slot (Stokley recorded 1077 yards and ten touchdowns in Peyton's then record-setting season). Unfortunately, Gonzalez didn't quite live up to those probably unrealistic expectations for a couple reasons. For starters, he was learning a brand new, very complicated playbook as a rookie. Also, while he did get the opportunity to start nine games due to injuries to future Hall-of-Famer
Marvin Harrison, he had a couple boo-boos himself and was limited to appearances in only 13 games. Still, he showed in a handful of those appearances why the Colts took him so early and why he still should be considered in fantasy leagues.
NFL CAREER
2007: Appeared in 13 games, starting nine. Caught 37 passes for 576 yards and three touchdowns.
TEAM SCENARIO
The Colts have made few changes in the offseason, which is probably a good thing considering their relative dominance over the past several years. The biggest news, however, was the investigation of the aforementioned
Marvin Harrison and his potential involvement in a shooting at his nightclub in Philadelphia. At presstime, it remains to be seen what – if any – affect the ongoing case will have on Harrison's season and career. More immediately concerning for Harrison owners is his health, as he is still dealing with knee injuries which sidelined him for most of the 2007 season.
Other than the Harrison news, the story remains pretty much the same in Indianapolis. While they've made a few offseason moves, the core roster remains unchanged. The impressive roster keeps Indianapolis in championship contention once again. Many NFL and fantasy accolades have been awarded to the offense, and deservedly so with names like Manning, Wayne, Harrison, and to a lesser extent, Clark and Addai lighting up the scoreboard on a weekly basis. The Colts also boast a rather underrated defense, with a good front-four, solid linebackers, and a very good secondary featuring the oft-injured but incredibly talented
Bob Sanders at safety. The Colts should remain one of the favorites to challenge for the Super Bowl, along with conference rivals New England and San Diego.
The Colts have one of the most talented rosters to go along with a revered coaching staff, but this season will be far from a "gimme." They're in one of the toughest conferences in pro football, facing the Jaguars, Titans, and seemingly competitive Texans twice each. They'll also face off against the Chargers, Vikings, Bears, Ravens, Patriots, Packers, and Steelers. All of these teams have championship-caliber defenses, and a few have pretty good offenses, too. Filling in the blanks are Cleveland, Detroit and Cincinnati, who may not have the same level of defense, but all have the potential to score pants-loads of points. They should be able to emerge once again as a playoff contender, but it'll take a group effort (and health) to endure this brutal road.
2008 UPSIDE
Gonzalez is the complete package at wide receiver. He possesses very good hands, good route-running ability, above-average speed, and above all, intelligence. At 6'0", 193 lbs, he may not be the biggest receiver in the league, but he's certainly not small either. He reportedly established chemistry with
Peyton Manning almost immediately last season, despite his reduced role as a rookie wideout behind some very established players.
While Gonzalez's debut was limited, he showed in a handful of games last season that he can be a legitimate receiving threat and a real fantasy contributor. His best game was in Week 12 when he posted six catches for 134 yards and two touchdowns versus the vaunted Baltimore Ravens defense. He followed that performance in Week 13 with a seven-catch, 86-yard, and one-touchdown outing against a very good Oakland pass defense. Considering the possibility that Gonzo, Jr. may open the season as the starter if Harrison isn't 100% healthy, he could be a gem of a sleeper.
2008 DOWNSIDE
Unfortunately for Gonzalez, there are three significant factors that will keep his value down. First is his health history. True, most rookies suffer from some minor dings during their first NFL season. It's a matter of adjustment to the rigors of both an extended season and harder-hitting when compared to college ball. While Gonzalez's injuries certainly weren't serious, they were enough to warrant at least a yellow flag in regards to his durability, especially when one considers that he wasn't a full-time starter at the beginning of the season. Secondly, while we've already noted that Gonzalez is a pretty smart cookie, he's entering his second professional NFL career year, and is still learning a playbook thicker than a $75 porterhouse. Offensive coordinator Tom Moore's scheme is effective, but it is complicated (probably one because of the other). Toss in the fact that
Peyton Manning's animated sequence of audibles before the snap are the stuff of both legend and punch line, and there's a lot for a youngster to learn.
The biggest factor on Gonzalez's immediate impact this season is going to be the health and legal status of
Marvin Harrison. This is simply too much of a wild card to hypothesize on. That makes it near impossible to project what kind of role Gonzo Jr. will have. As it stands, Harrison's knee is still troubling him and there is a possibility that he will open the season on the PUP list. At 35 years old (36 this August), Harrison's well past the age that players bounce back easily from a nagging knee injury. And then there's the ongoing investigation. Both issues seem like immediate spikes for Gonzalez's value. However, since either issue is close to resolution and Harrison's status is as a "living legend" with a resume almost worthy of mention in the same breath as
Jerry Rice, Harrison will be the starting wide receiver opposite
Reggie Wayne as long as he can comfortably take the field.
OVERALL FANTASY IMPACT
As long as
Marvin Harrison remains on the Colts' active roster, Gonzalez's value is going to be far too tough to quantify in the preseason. It's as simple as that.
Anthony Gonzalez has the tools and talent to be a superstar in the league, and he will eventually be the perfect complement to
Reggie Wayne on one of the best offenses the NFL has ever witnessed. But, with some durability questions and the presence of Harrison, the questions of "if" and "when" still remain (more so "when"). For 2008, he's absolutely worthy of a roster spot, but until Harrison's legal and health issues become more clear, it's best to consider him a "high risk/high reward" depth addition rather than a starter. It will take some cunning on draft day to determine when to grab Gonzalez, so we'll recommend keeping an eye on ADPs and Colts news until that time comes.
