Look at the top of the standings in the Mixed Nuts League, or almost any relatively deep league for that matter. I’m willing to bet that the top several teams have had some pleasant surprises. Now that we are in May, it is time for those owners to determine whether those pleasant surprises are real or an aberration.

At the top of the standings now is Roger Kuznia of Sporting News. Kuznia is doing well in every category but steals, and among his early surprises is John Danks. Danks is a former top prospect that is starting to show what he did in the minors. His peripheral numbers (25/8 K/BB in 34.2 IP) support his cause to this point. Another number that jumps out: Two homers allowed this season, compared to 28 homers last year. A clear explanation is his increased groundball rate, with a 1.66 GB/FB ratio this season compared to 0.80 last season. Based on this analysis, Danks is a pitcher that Kuznia should stick with.

Just below Kuznia we have Marc Meltzer of CREATiVESPORTS.com, who is riding high on a big month from young Justin Upton. We know that Upton has big upside, if for no other reason than the fact he is a former first overall draft choice. However, he is on pace for 156 strikeouts and has not hit a home run since April 12. These are two indications that the 20-year-old may not be able to keep up his early pace. This is not to say that Meltzer should trade Upton, but he probably shouldn’t count on him to end the season as a contender for the NL Triple Crown or anywhere close.

This type of analysis is also important if you are near the bottom of the standings. You have probably had some bad luck and slow starters, and it is important to make an objective assessment of those players. If you believe they will be fine the rest of the way, keep chugging away. If not, it could be time to take action.

The point is that May 7 is not too late for you to move from last to first place…or first to last place, for that matter.


Pickups

Scott Downs, $55 – Rotowire.com

Don’t look now, but left-handed setup man Scott Downs has three saves this season. He has been one of Toronto’s most valuable relievers over the last two seasons, and manager John Gibbons is rewarding him with opportunities this year late in ball games when B.J. Ryan is unavailable. Unfortunately, word is that Ryan will be pitching on back-to-back days soon, eliminating Downs’ chances for saves. If you are a Downs optimist, the Jays could be pushing Ryan too quickly less than one year removed from Tommy John surgery. It is that optimistic outlook that gives this bid some potential.


Jon Lester, $27 – SportsBuff.com
Other Bids: $1 – CBSSports.com, $1 – Fanball.com, $1 – SportsGrumblings.com, $1 – CREATiVESPORTS.com

The mainstream media has made Lester’s upside known. Even if you had never seen him pitch in your life, you would know that he is neck-and-neck with sliced bread for the greatest thing of the last 100 years. Some of that hype is warranted, but Lester’s availability and the generally low bids indicate what the experts think of Lester in the immediate future. While he does have a sub-4.00 ERA, Lester is showing very little control this season with a poor 27/26 K/BB ratio in 45.2 innings. Those numbers are usually indicative of a pitcher that is not particularly good. Lester has the upside to make this a terrific buy, but I’d bet against him being a fantasy savior with a 1.49 WHIP and the current peripherals.


Jo-Jo Reyes, $25 – Rotowire.com

Atlanta’s starting rotation is a mess between John Smoltz’s expected move to the bullpen and Mike Hampton’s continued fragility. Reyes didn’t fare so well with Atlanta last season, but he has proven himself in the minors and will need to work in order to lose his rotation spot. His first start of the season was excellent, so he does look like a solid flyer in a deep league like this one.


Miguel Olivo, $20 – Rotowire.com

Olivo has proven that he can hit lefties, as he has batted .283-13-36 in the last three seasons. Right-handers are a different story. He is doing a nice job for fantasy owners as a part-time player, and John Buck’s early struggles offensively could get Olivo a few more at-bats if the trends continue. However, Olivo is not exactly the type of player you want to see in the lineup vs. right-handers, as his average will plummet. For a league this size, he is a second catcher fill-in.


Reed Johnson, $13 – FantasyBaseball.com

Felix Pie’s play is wearing thin on manager Lou Piniella in Chicago, and Reed Johnson has basically seen regular playing time since opening day. He has not done much for fantasy owners, but history tells us that he does have Mark Kotsay upside if he can stick in the lineup. This pickup has some short-term upside potential.


Brian Burres, $1 – CBSSports.com

Talk about your short-term pitcher. Burres has been outstanding in the early going for Baltimore this season, posting a 3.19 ERA and three wins. Last season ended with an ERA near 6.00. However, his ERA by the end of June through 55 innings was 3.38. A career minor league ERA above 4.00 indicates that we probably can’t bet on Burres maintaining his current success, but as we saw last season, he can be valuable in small doses.


Blake DeWitt, $7 – SportsBuff.com

The Dodgers are sticking with DeWitt – for now. He has earned his playing time with his strong play during the first month, but Joe Torre has made it clear during his managerial career that he prefers veterans. That means Nomar Garciaparra should eat into DeWitt’s playing time if and when he is healthy. Still, DeWitt’s early numbers are worthy of being rostered in a league this size. Of course, Andy LaRoche is probably a better option for the Dodgers than both of the above, but that is a debate better left for another column.


David Dellucci, $7 – Sporting News
Other Bids: $1 – FantasyBaseball.com

Dellucci is on an early-season power rebound after posting a .382 slugging percentage with the Indians last season. Remember, he did post slugging percentages above .500 in 2005 and 2006, albeit in two of the smaller parks in baseball. Still, Dellucci is getting his at-bats, and the struggles of Franklin Gutierrez are good news for his ability to see continued playing time when Shin-Soo Choo comes back from Tommy John surgery soon. This is cheap pop.


Jon Lieber, $2 – Regular Guy

Lieber finds himself in the Cubs’ starting rotation due to the struggles of Rich Hill. While Lieber’s stuff is not quite what it was earlier in his career, his control has been consistently solid over the last several years. We did see a lofty ERA in 2006-2007, but remember that he was playing in a favorable hitter’s park with Philadelphia. Wrigley Field is not quite as favorable on the whole, and Lieber has once again been able to pound the strike zone. That said, he allowed five runs on four homers in just two innings of work against the Reds on Wednesday afternoon, so this investment could be short-lived.


Chad Qualls, $2 – CREATiVESPORTS.com

Qualls allowed his first earned runs of the season this past weekend. We certainly can’t expect him to remain that good, but we do know that Qualls is an awfully solid reliever based on his career 3.21 ERA and career-high 3.76 ERA in 2006. The other note worth mentioning is that he is likely the second in command for saves for the first place D’Backs due to Tony Pena’s struggles this season. Brandon Lyon has been fine in the closer’s role this season, but some owners still don’t trust him, and he has seen the DL during his career.


Miguel Batista, $1 – Fanball.com

If there is one thing to be said for Batista, it is that you know what you are going to get from him when all is said and done. He has posted a sub-5.00 ERA and mediocre WHIP every season since 2004 based on his ability to keep the ball in the park despite a high walk rate. Despite the poor early-season returns, he has some ability as a spot starter in a league this size.


Shannon Stewart, $1 – Fanball.com

I feel like I’ve written about Stewart every week. He is that type of character in fantasy leagues. A decent fill-in at his best but easily replaceable.


Kyle McClellan, $1 – Regular Guy

If you have not seen this rookie pitch yet, he is worth watching. He has arguably been the Cardinals’ best reliever with a 2.08 ERA, and he has the peripheral numbers (15/3 K/BB) to back up that performance. McClellan has had some arm injuries in his career, but he emerged last season between High-A and Double-A as a tremendous reliever. His results have been similar with the Cardinals due a terrific fastball-curveball combo. Ryan Franklin is the second in command for saves in St. Louis, but McClellan is a great, cheap innings eater fill-in.


Santiago Casilla, $1 – Sporting News

I nominate this as the pickup of the week. If you have not noticed, Casilla has not given up a run in 18 appearances this season for the A’s. The number that shocks me is the three walks in 17.1 innings pitched. Casilla was a highly touted relief prospect coming up through Oakland’s farm system, but he had trouble avoiding walks. That no longer seems to be a problem now, and he has been unhittable as Oakland’s setup man. Added is Huston Street’s inability to stay healthy in recent years, plus Street is a candidate to be moved if the A’s fall out of contention. This is a win-win situation.


Drops
Heath Bell, Andrew Miller, Franklin Morales, Ben Broussard, Mike Lamb, David Weathers, Ryan Ludwick, Tony Pena, Brad Wilkerson, Matt Chico, Scott Linebrink, Justin Germano, Jeremy Accardo
The theme this week is potential backup closers that didn’t pan out. Heath Bell has not taken over for Trevor Hoffman – yet. David Weathers and Tony Pena have struggled. Bobby Jenks has done nothing to indicate that Scott Linebrink has a chance for saves this season. B.J. Ryan’s return to pitching in back-to-back days means that Accardo’s chances for saves will be slim.