By James Morris, Rick Morris
May 13, 2008 4:59pm CDT

They aren't related, but that doesn't mean the Morris boys don't have a lot to say. In what follows, each writer will give his take on how the Eastern Conference battles are shaping up.

This week's column addresses the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Contributed by Rick Morris

Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (unless otherwise noted, playoff totals listed are through Game 3 of the conference semifinals):

A certain level of defense should certainly have been predicted for this series. After all, ever since Mike Brown took over as coach three seasons ago, the Cavs have put the majority of their emphasis on defense, and the team finished third in the league in defense in 2007-08 at 89.1 PPG allowed. And they're actually the more generous defensive team in this series! The Celtics led the league with a stingy 86.3 PPG allowed. Even with all of that taken into account, however, few observers anywhere could have forecast the extent to which rims would be bent and battered by some of the top offensive players in this series.

Paul Pierce was 12-for-35 from the field through the first three games of the series and was 3-for-13 on three-point attempts. Ray Allen was 8-for-26 from the field and a horrific 1-for-11 from three-point land. Rajon Rando, who suffered the indignity of being almost completely unguarded from mid-range and outside in Game 3, was 8-for-24 from the field – and even that was better and more judicious than his inaccurate and shot-hungry backup Sam Cassell with his 8-for-26 mark.

Justifiably, though, the poor production from much of Boston's roster has been overshadowed. That'll happen when the player who is arguably the league's best fantasy performer puts up the worst three-game stretch of his career under the bright lights of May. Lebron James has shot an unfathomable 22% on 13-for-58 production from the field. Yet, through the rough start to the second round, he has produced enough offense (helped a great deal by many chances at the free-throw stripe) to keep his overall postseason scoring total at 25.9 PPG. And in his worst hour in terms of shooting accuracy, he has reminded us again why he may indeed be the best fantasy performer on the planet – because unlike the Carmelo Anthonys of the world, his worth is not purely predicated on his offense. He has some key stats that are actually in excess of his regular season totals (8.4 RPG, up from 7.9 RPG in the regular season and 7.7 APG, up from 7.2 APG in the regular season). His 13 assists in Game 4 reinforce this point in dramatic fashion, as well.

On a more speculative note, he has looked very shaky with the ball in his hands this round (his shooting touch, even on short floaters and finger-rolls near the rim, is nil) and appears either to be enduring a rare crisis of confidence (fairly unlikely) or is suffering the ill effects of the myriad of hard fouls he has taken lately (more likely). Neither case bodes well for his fantasy owners, however, or the owners of other Cavs players hoping for a deep Cleveland playoff run. His 7-for-20 shooting from the field in Game 4 was astronomical by comparison with the other games in his recent shooting slump. Meanwhile, the Celtics lost Game 4, and they aren't going to win too many games with their Big Three scoring a combined 43 points. Last week in this space, it was predicted that the Cavaliers would need the unlikely combo of a 15-point average in the series from both Daniel Gibson and Wally Szczerbiak in order to advance. While that pick was predicated on the correct assumption that Lebron would need his best shooters to spread the floor in order to allow the team's offense to give the team a sufficient chance to win, Cleveland actually found a better formula in Game 3 – if they can sustain it. Delonte West added 21 points to his seven assists, Szczerbiak did manage 16 points and Joe Smith's 7-for-8 from the floor led to 17 points to go along with his six assists. Cleveland's only real chance to win this series, much less advance beyond that, lies in the ability of all shooters with decent consistency from medium and long-range to hit the necessary shots. As such, the performance of Daniel Gibson in Game 4 was a very hopeful note: 5-for-9 from the field, including 2-for-4 on three-point attempts. His return to the performance level he reached by midseason (prior to his injury) and during last year's playoff run is key for the fantasy owners of all Cavs players.

Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic:

No Chauncey, no chance? That wasn't the case for the Pistons in Game 4 of the Eastern semifinals, as they put themselves in position to advance to their sixth consecutive conference finals with a gritty 90-89 win at Orlando. With the hammy of their indispensable quarterback hanging in the balance, Detroit has to be feeling at least as much urgency as the Magic in Game 5, in that they need to save him for the next round if possible for what would shape up as a war against either the team with the conference's best record (Boston) or the team that snatched the East crown from them a year ago (Cleveland).

Pistons' fantasy owners are, for the most part, receiving some of the most predictable statistical consistency anywhere, as per usual, but Antonio McDyess is down over two points and two rebounds per game this postseason. Tayshaun Prince is up offensively, though, from 13.2 PPG in the regular season to 16.6 PPG in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Magic surely must be discouraged by Dwight Howard's performance in Game 4 (3-for-12 shooting from the field and eight points overall, albeit accompanied by 12 rebounds, actually down a bit from his awesome 15.7 RPG average).

While Detroit was able to buck the odds and win a title sans a megastar in 2004, they have been tripped up by elite players the past three postseasons (Tim Duncan in 2005, Shaq/Wade in 2006 and Lebron James in 2007). Orlando had cause to think that Howard could be that kind of a key element in this series, as his breakthrough year put him squarely among the league's elite. However, while his poor performance in the season's most important game was of great disappointment to his team and fantasy owners, Rashard Lewis has stepped up, however belatedly, to provide the kind of offense the team thought they were purchasing last summer. His 20.1 PPG are up 1.9 PPG over his regular season total. Jameer Nelson also continues to light it up this postseason. He is averaging 16.4 PPG, up a whopping 5.5 PPG from the regular season. Predictably, though, there is a trade-off, as his assists are down, from 5.6 APG this season to 4.8 APG now.


Contributed by James Morris

When it comes to the playoffs, everything from the regular season means nothing. All the records you broke, all the games you won and all the times you scored 50 points mean nothing if you don't produce in the playoffs. That being said, Boston has hardly looked like the team to beat in the playoffs. Los Angeles in the west looks good, Utah looks good, New Orleans looks good and even Detroit looks good enough to make a final run at the ring. Boston, on the other hand, has looked very beatable, as Lebron James and the other guys in a Cavaliers uniform lost by four points and 16 points before blowing the Celtics out by 24 points and then 11 points. If Lebron can single handedly dismantle you to the tune of 20+ point losses, you are more a pretender than a contender.

Speaking of King James, has anyone noticed his FG% this series? In Game 4 he shot 7-for-20 (35%), which is actually scorching for him compared to his 5-for-16 (31%) in Game 3, 6-for-24 (25%) in Game 2 and 2-for-18 (11%) in Game 1. If this is the best Lebron can do - hoist up brick after brick after brick - the Cavaliers might want to think about hiring someone in the offseason to fix that. Has anyone considered Lasik eye surgery? Anyone can score 20 points when shooting it an average of 20 times per game. Did anyone see Game 4 where James would shoot up a 3-pointer and stand there with his hand arched like he was Larry Bird, and he already knew it was going in? Lebron, you do know you shot 0-for-6 from the arc in Game 1, 0-for-4 in Game 2, 3-for-5 in Game 3 and 2for--5 in Game 4, right? That is a 75% miss rate from 3-point land! When you look at it, a 25.5% FG percentage is better than his 25% from the 3-point line. At least he is consistent… he doesn't shoot any better or worse from any one spot on the floor!

Detroit and Orlando has been the battle of the defenses. It has been an up and down battle all series long with wins of 19 points, 9 points, 25 points and 1 point so far. Detroit is up 3-1 right now, which pretty much means Orlando is just trying to save face, as only a few teams in NBA history have come back after being down 3-1. Dwight Howard can only do so much, so he really needs Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis to step up their play a notch. Jameer Nelson said after Game 4, "What am I supposed to do? Guarantee a loss? We've got to win the game. We have the confidence that we can do it. I believe it." That makes one of us, Jameer.

What it breaks down to in the East is who Detroit will face in the conference finals, and can the Celtics overcome their poor play and get past the Cavaliers? Detroit is going to win their series, that is a given. The Celtics have the advantage over Cleveland with two of the next three games in Boston, but Boston doesn't seem to have that killer mentality in the playoffs. Maybe there is a curse that follows Kevin Garnett around. Maybe it is too many good stars and nobody wanting to shove the dagger in someone else's heart. Whatever the problem is, Detroit looks like your Eastern Conference winner in 2008.