Philip Rivers enters the 2008 campaign as a fifth-year player, but only his third as a starting QB. Unable to beat out incumbent starter
Drew Brees during his first two years on the Bolts, Rivers bided his time until the eventual release of the injured Brees.
Once handed the job, it was Rivers' to lose, and he did not disappoint. After his first full season, he received the Rodney Culver Memorial Award as the Chargers' offensive player of the year, as voted by his teammates. Is this a sign to come for Rivers' long-term future? The Chargers' brass and fan base certainly hope so.
NFL CAREER
2004: Rookie holding a clipboard on the sideline.
2005: Still holding a clipboard.
2006: In his first year as a starter, Rivers led the charge for the franchise high-water mark for wins (14). On top of that impressive win total, the Chargers also finished undefeated at home for the first time in their history. As if that wasn't icing on the cake, they also scored a franchise-best 492 points. His overall performance during the season earned him a nod to the Pro Bowl, as well. On the season, he passed for 3,388 yards, 22 TDs, 9 INTs, and finished with a 92.0 QB rating. What you don't see in those stats is his ability to finish games with his mental and physical toughness. That's reflected in Rivers having the highest fourth quarter QB rating in the entire NFL. Considering the low team expectations coming into 2006 with an unseasoned QB, this was a highly successful season by all accounts.
Philip Rivers is at the helm of a powerful Chargers offense.
2007: With a solid season under his wing, Rivers entered the season under new head coach Norv Turner. Known for nurturing and producing big-time runners like Emmitt Smith and
Frank Gore, it was unclear what his offensive schemes would do to Rivers' fantasy value. His stat line read: 3,152 yards passing, 21 TDs, 15 INTs, and a QB rating of 82.4. Rivers had a similar statistical season from last year except for one category, turnovers. Not only did his INTs nearly double, but he also had a case of the butter fingers, as he saw his lost fumbles tally jump from two to six. All told, his total turnovers jumped from 11 to 21 between his first and second year as a starter. A troubling trend that he will need to work on this season.
TEAM SCENARIO
With the same basic foundation of players in place from last year, Norv Turner will once again lean on San Diego's version of "The Triplets." The Cowboys of yore had Aikman, Smith, and Irvin. The Colts had Manning, James, and Harrison. The Chargers sport a trio of Rivers, LaDanian Tomlinson, and
Antonio Gates. Just how much success the Chargers team will realize this year will depend on the performances of their "Triplets." Gates is the unquestioned top tight end in the game, and the same can be said for Tomlinson at the running back position. Although Rivers has not elevated himself to "Manning Levels," he is a savvy QB that relies on physical and mental toughness in a way that is reminiscent of a pretty good former QB named Aikman.
The mid-season trade last year for WR
Chris Chambers helped bolster the passing game and gave Rivers a legitimate deep threat. It also gave Gates a much-needed diversion from all the attention defensive backs give him on a weekly basis. Chambers went on to enjoy his second best receiving yardage total of his seven-year career. Those numbers should only get better in his second season with the Chargers after better assimilating the playbook, and gelling with his new mates.
Helping out the offense is their spectacular defense that returns three Pro Bowlers in
Antonio Cromartie (CB),
Shawne Merriman (LB), and
Jamal Williams (DT). Even though some consider kickers a necessary evil, the special teams also bolster this Chargers squad with Pro Bowl kicker
Nate Kaeding.
Considering the Pro Bowl talent on both sides of the ball, there's very little tinkering that Norv needs to do to this squad in 2008 to improve upon last year's effort that came up short of winning the AFC Championship Game versus the Patriots. A spectacular feat considering their 2007 playoff run marked the Chargers' first playoff wins in the last 13 years. Turner certainly has them going in the right direction, and they have responded in a big way. That's something former coach Marty Schottenheimer couldn't manage to do in his stint helming the Chargers.
2008 UPSIDE
After having a full year in coach Turner's offense, it would be a smart bet that Rivers' numbers have an up-tick, especially considering Chambers will have a full offseason to work with Rivers and develop more of a rapport. The further development of the young and talented WR
Vincent Jackson should also help Rivers' numbers, as he will be able to better spread the ball between Gates, Chambers, and Jackson. Not to be forgotten is the receiving prowess of Tomlinson, who gives Rivers the ultimate check-down receiver that would make every QB in the league salivate.
Rivers' confidence must be sky-high coming into this year after winning 25 regular season games in the past two years. That ties
Peyton Manning's mark over the same span, and is second only to
Tom Brady. He owns a 25-7 record as a starter and an awe-inspiring 15-1 record in the cozy confines of Qualcomm Stadium. To say that the kid is "getting it" is a major understatement. His poise and natural talent has produced something that Stan Humphries; Ryan Leaf; Jim Harbaugh;
Doug Flutie; and
Drew Brees were unable to produce in the last 13 years: A playoff win.
2008 DOWNSIDE
In terms of downside, fantasy football owners need to keep an eye on the development of Rivers' recovery from his ACL injury. Rivers played hurt the final month of the season, and his status for the AFC Championship Game was in the balance the whole week leading up to the game. It wasn't revealed until after the heartbreaking loss to the Patriots that Rivers revealed that he was playing on a damaged ACL that he battle-tested throughout the Chargers' playoff run. The only silver lining in the injury, if you can call it that, is that he's not a very mobile quarterback and consequently will not need to rely on it for his game. This lack of mobility, however, leads to another negative heading into the 2008 season, namely ball protection. Last year he had 11 fumbles, with six lost fumbles. Coupled with his interceptions, Rivers has had 32 total turnovers over the past two years. If he doesn't protect the ball better, the Chargers are going to be relying more on their defense than they would like.
OVERALL FANTASY IMPACT
Next to a great offensive line, the best thing to ensure a quality QB's success is the play at the receiver position. With Gates, Chambers, and Tomlinson at his disposal, there is nothing holding Rivers back from having the best statistical season of his short career. The potency of the rushing attack from Tomlinson alone makes the opposing defense respect the run and prevents defenses from teeing off on Rivers.
Coach Turner's offensive playbook won't be "new" to the Chargers heading into this offseason, so the learning curve should be non-existent, at least with the core starters. That bodes well for Rivers, considering the QB position has a tremendous amount of information within a playbook to digest, memorize, and execute.
Due to the presence of Tomlinson, Rivers is not asked to carry the team in the same way that a
Carson Palmer or
Matt Hasselbeck would be. That's not to say that he's not capable of doing so, it's just that the Chargers employ a fairly balanced offensive attack, with the rushing game shouldering a bit more of the of the offensive load than the passing game. That being said, ranking him in the top dozen quarterbacks feels about right. This assumes that he will be fully recovered from his ACL injury. However, as alluded to previously, he was never known for his mobility to begin with, so even at 85-90% health he may still be around the top-15 QBs taken. In a 12-team league, he's a borderline #1 QB, but he would make a great #2 coming off the bench for your fantasy squad.
