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Strength of Schedule Analysis



The NFL released its 2008 NFL schedule on Tuesday, and in what follows we will break down some of the more interesting facts that emerged with this announcement.


Best Matchup in Week 1 - Chicago @ Indianapolis
A rematch of Super Bowl XLI, with only one of the two teams looking like they have a shot at Super Bowl XLIII.

Best Matchup in Week 2 - Philadelphia @ Dallas
This is always a tough NFC East matchup, as Terrell Owens gets to face off against his old squad.

Best Matchup in Week 3 - Dallas @ Green Bay
This will be Week 3 of the Aaron Rodgers era, and if he doesn't have a victory by Week 3, he's not likely to have one until at least Week 4.

Best Matchup in Week 4 - Cleveland @ Cincinnati
The Browns have designs on making this a special season and will look to do better than the season series split the two teams had last year. The first time the two squads matched up last season the score was 51-45.

Best Matchup in Week 5 - Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville
The Steelers will look to avenge the two home loses they suffered to the Jaguars last season, the first time they have lost two home games to the same team in the same season.

Best Matchup in Week 6 - New England @ San Diego
A rematch of the AFC title game that was played in New England, which just so happened to be the second season in a row that a loss to the Pats ended the year for the Chargers.

Best Matchup in Week 7 - Minnesota @ Chicago
Adrian Peterson ran for 302 yards and five TD in two matchups with the Bears last season. Will Chicago be able to do any better this year or will the once again serve as a way for AD to lead the NFC in rushing?

Best Matchup in Week 8 - New Orleans @ San Diego
No team is really the home team here, as the NFL will play on foreign soil at Wembley Stadium in England (the Bills and Dolphins play in Canada in Week 14).

Best Matchup in Week 9 - New England @ Indianapolis
THE matchup of the season as it has been the past couple of years. These two teams have won five of the last seven AFC championships.

Best Matchup in Week 10 - New Orleans @ Atlanta
A matchup of two teams that had such promising futures just a year and a half ago.

Best Matchup in Week 11 - Chicago @ Green Bay
This is the first of three straight road games for the Bears, who enter a brutally tough part of their schedule.

Best Matchup in Week 12 - Minnesota @ Jacksonville
A matchup of last year's top two rushing attacks pits Adrian Peterson against the Jaguars' two-headed monster of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew.

Best Matchup in Week 13 - Pittsburgh @ New England
The Steelers have to make a trip into the unfriendly confines of Massachusetts, this a year after they were held to a 3-5 record on the road.

Best Matchup in Week 14 - Philadelphia @ NY Giants
This late-season NFC East matchup could go a long ways to determining what type of Super Bowl follow-up the Giants have.

Best Matchup in Week 15 - New England @ Oakland
Randy Moss returns to the scene of the crime where he "stole" money from the Raiders with a series of less than spectacular efforts. The game should be a total blowout, but the hype and the build up should be substantial.

Best Matchup in Week 16 - Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
The Colts defeated the Jags both times they met in 2007 and it was the reason that the Jags finished second in the division.

Best Matchup in Week 17 - Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
The schedule makers seem to have gotten this one right, as the AFC North's divisional championship could be settled the final week of the season.


Some additional notes.

  • The NFL Network will starting airing games three weeks before Thanksgiving this season.
  • The Ravens might have the toughest month of any team this season, as the month of December will be brutal: Washington, Pittsburgh, @ Dallas and Jacksonville.
  • The Browns play five games in prime-time, including three MNF games.
  • The Bengals face eight opponents this season that were in the top-10 in overall defense last year. Carson Palmer had better hope that they are able to hang on to Chad Johnson or it might be a long year.
  • Miami plays four of its final five games of the year on the road, more than enough to ensure that they will once again lose in double-digits.
  • Starting in Week 7, the Saints play @ Carolina, in London, England, have a bye week, play @ Atlanta and @ Kansas City. Their season will be made or broken by that stretch of road games.
  • No team travels more miles this year than the San Diego Chargers, who will clock in 33,516 frequent flyer miles.


    STRENGTH OF SCHDULE ANALYSIS BASED ON OPPONENTS 2007 RECORDS

    Team Opp. 2007 Win%
    Steelers .598
    Colts .594
    Jaguars .559
    Vikings .551
    Ravens .551
    Titans .551
    Bengals .547
    Texans .547
    Browns .547
    Lions .543
    Bears .531
    Packers .531
    Redskins .523
    Cowboys .523
    Eagles .520
    Giants .520
    Rams .488
    49ers .484
    Seahawks .477
    Buccaneers .469
    Falcons .469
    Cardinals .465
    Dolphins .465
    Panthers .465
    Jets .457
    Chiefs .453
    Bills .449
    Saints .449
    Broncos .445
    Raiders .438
    Chargers .422
    Patriots .387

  • Over the past six years, there have been 11 teams who began and ended the season with the toughest schedule (there were a couple of ties). Of those 11 teams, only three made the playoffs (2006 NY Giants, 2003 Cowboys and 2003 Eagles).
  • Over the past six years, there have been seven teams who began and ended the season with the easiest schedule. Of those seven teams, only one made the playoffs (the Seahawks in 2003).


    BYE WEEKS
    TEAM BYE
    Arizona 7
    Atlanta 7
    Baltimore 10
    Buffalo 6
    Carolina 9
    Chicago 8
    Cincinnati 8
    Cleveland 5
    Dallas 10
    Denver 8
    Detroit 4
    Green Bay 8
    Houston 8
    Indianapolis 4
    Jacksonville 7
    Kansas City 6
    Miami 4
    Minnesota 8
    New England 4
    New Orleans 9
    NY Giants 4
    NY Jets 5
    Oakland 5
    Philadelphia 7
    Pittsburgh 6
    San Diego 9
    San Francisco 9
    Seattle 4
    St. Louis 5
    Tampa Bay 10
    Tennessee 6
    Washington 10