By Ray Flowers
December 4, 2008 2:28pm CST

This is the time of year when speculation is rampant amongst free agents and players who have worn out their welcomes with their current clubs. In what follows we will not get into the rumor spreading game per se, but we will break down the outlook of a handful of players that appear to be close to either signing or moving to a new club in 2009 and see just what can be expected.


Casey Blake (.274-21-81-71-3), First Base/Third Base
Blake was a late bloomer, as he wasn’t given a regular role until 2003, when he was 30 years old. Since then he has been a solid hitter whose value is augmented by an ability to play multiple positions. However, the truth is that he is nothing more than a replacement-level bat at best (the type you’ll want to turn to in a pinch, but not rely on week after week). Over the past six seasons an average power performance has produced 21 home runs, 73 RBI and 77 runs. Toss in a career .264 batting average, and we are basically talking Edwin Encarnacion here (.251-26-68-75). How many of you are excited to have that as anything other than a CI option in deep mixed leagues?

The good news, if there is any, for this 35 year old, is that he slightly exceeded his career performance in OBP (by .011) and SLG (by .016) last season, showing that his skills haven’t yet begun to erode. He also maintained a solid .319 BABIP mark, again slightly above his career performance (.305), and his eye at the plate led to a K/BB ratio of 0.41, which just so happens to be nearly spot-on his career-long mark of 0.42. As for the type of ball he hits, his G/F ratio of 0.93 again nearly matched his 1.00 career level. What does this all mean? Well, in truth, it means that Blake was his old “average� self last season, and that there are no signs that his averageness (not a word) has waned in the least. As long as Blake gets his 500 ABs, he should produce his .265-20-70 season. You’ll just have to decide if that is something you want to roster.


Adam Dunn (.236-40-100-79-2), Outfield (19 games at first base)
Quick, who is the only player in baseball to have hit 40 home runs in each of the past five years? It’s Dunn, of course. Over the past five seasons Dunn has produced an average campaign of .249-41-100-98. And even with the low average, his production in the other three main fantasy categories is superb. In fact, over the past five years Dunn is second in baseball with 206 home runs (two behind Alex Rodriguez), 15th in RBI with 501, 14th in runs scored with 491, 19th in OBP (.382) and 16th in baseball with an OPS of .915. Add that all up and why is there such concern over (a) signing Dunn, and (b) adding him to your fantasy squad?

The simple answer is that people focus on the wrong measures. Face it, Dunn’s batting average stinks. There is no way around that fact. Dunn owns a .247 career mark and is coming off his second season below .240 in three years. This should matter less in real life, as his OBP and OPS are supremely strong, but it is a concern in the fantasy realm where you really have to game plan around him if you want to make hay in the batting average category (adding a high at-bat, high average guy like Ichiro Suzuki or Michael Young is always a nice play with Dunn). The main reason for his failure in this measure is his propensity to strike out (164 or more the past five seasons), but unless your league subtracts points for this, who cares? One positive for Dunn is that his BABIP of .262 last year was his lowest mark in five seasons, so there is some hope that his average will rebound, at least somewhat, in the coming season. The bottom line is that there is no reason at all not to expect another season comparable to the ones that he has produced the past five years – you’ll just have to be a smart manager and find some way to boost your team’s batting average.


Khalil Greene (.213-10-35-30-5 in 389 AB), Shortstop

Editor's note. Greene has been dealt to the St. Louis Cardinals but as of the time this article was posted, the details of the deal still have not yet emerged.

Greene was awful last season. Before he took out his frustration on some furniture and broke his hand during a hissy fit in the clubhouse, Greene’s production was simply atrocious. This was particularly discouraging for his fantasy owners, who saw that he hit 27 home runs with 97 RBI in 2007 as one of the top power options at the shortstop position. While that ’07 effort might end up being a career-best effort, Greene was a 15-HR, 55 RBI bat at the shortstop position each season from 2004-07, and only he and Miguel Tejada can make that claim.

So what went wrong in ’08? First off, Greene struck out too much with a career worst 25.7% K rate, or roughly once every four at-bats (his career mark is about 22%). He also undershot his walk rate, with a 5.4% mark (career 6.8%). And when you strike out too often and don’t walk often enough, the impact on your batting average certainly isn’t pretty. As a result, his K/BB mark was putrid 0.22, roughly a 50% reduction on his already terrible career mark (0.34). When you combine that with the worst BABIP mark of his career at .262 (career .285), the results were predictably disastrous. Because of some nagging injuries early in the season, Greene’s HR/F ratio was also a career worst at 7.1% (9.6% for his career), so his entire game fell apart. While there is nothing in his hitting line that says "pick me, I’ll be great in 2009," three obvious caveats should be mentioned. (1) With his trade to St. Louis that was announced Thursday, he's finally getting out of PETCO Park, which is death on hitters. (2) Greene is in a contract year, so he will certainly be motivated to prove his worth heading into free agency. (3) Greene is a better hitter than he showed last season, and at age 29, he should be fully capable of a rebound.


Trevor Hoffman (3-6, 3.77 ERA, 46 K, 1.04 WHIP with 30 saves)
Unceremoniously dumped by the team that he served as a faithful hurler for since 1994, Hoffman will be with a new club in 2009. With reliever's values tied so closely to their role, it’s a bit uncertain at this point what Hoffman’s value will be until we are certain where he will end up and what role he will fill. So without knowing if he will be called on in the ninth inning or not, we’ll just break down the constituent parts of his recent work.

Many people will focus on his worst ERA since 1995 or his lowest full-season save total since 1994, but the truth of the matter is that Hoffman was as good as ever last season. Don’t believe us? Consider the following data points.

(1) Hoffman’s ERA over his final 20 appearances was 1.96 while his WHIP was 0.82.
(2) Hoffman’s 9.13 K/9 ratio was his best mark since 2003.
(3) Hoffman’s 1.79 BB/9 ratio was his best mark since 2004 and his second best mark since 2001.
(4) Hoffman’s 5.11 K/BB ratio was his best mark since 2004 and his second best mark since 2001.
(5) Hoffman’s LOB% of 78% was almost identical to his career 77% mark.

So what was the real difference in 2008? It was the longball, as his career 0.82 HR/9 mark shot all the way up to 1.59. Of course, we are only talking about eight home runs in total, but when you throw just 45.1 innings, those home runs can certainly effect your bottom line. As long as Hoffman keeps the ball down in ’09, there is no reason to believe he can’t once again be a solid arm out of the bullpen, no matter where he ends up.