By Ray Flowers
October 23, 2008 6:01pm CDT

We will be taking a look at all 30 major league teams to see which hitters and pitchers failed, which excelled, and which youngsters you might want to keep in mind as you begin to prepare for your 2009 fantasy baseball draft.

HITTERS

Fantasy Flop - Ryan Church .276-12-49-54-2 in 319 AB

The Mets offense was pretty strong this year with all of the major players doing quite well, so Church is kind of a default choice here for two reasons. (1) Moises Alou could have been listed but he hasn't had even 350 AB in three years after finishing with just 49 this season, so we gave him a pass because you should have never counted on him in the first place. (2) Church was being hyped as a potential breakout candidate in 2008, so he was drafted in the middle rounds in some leagues. When he started out hot, hitting .309 with nine home runs, 32 RBI and 34 runs scored through 46 games, people's expectations started to soar to unreasonable heights. All good things must come to an end, it seems, and for Church the end of the ride was a concussion that kept him in and out of the lineup for the next three months, as he had more stops and starts that a lawnmower in summer. In the end, Church produced nearly identical numbers to his 2007 production with the Nationals (.272-15-70-57-3) despite receiving 151 fewer AB. The truth is the "flop" tab is unfair because of the concussion he incurred, but in a larger sense, we are still talking about a guy who never hit 16 home runs in a season, never scored 60 runs in a season and has failed to hit even .280 three years running. He does represent a nice buy low option for 2009, though, so remember his name on draft day.

Fantasy Find - Carlos Delgado .271-38-115-96-1 in 598 AB

Delgado hit 24 home runs with 87 RBI in 2007, as he lost a string of 10-straight seasons of 30 home runs and 90 RBI. When he started out hitting like a backup outfielder in April (.204-3-12 in 93 AB), even those that still had faith in him had their patience tested to the extreme. For those that stayed the course, the payoff was huge, as Delgado knocked in at least 20 runs in each of the final four months of the season while hitting .303-21-63 in just 66 appearances after the All-Star break. So not only did Delgado rebound from a poor 2007 season, he also rebounded from a down start to 2008 to offer the type off production we have been used to seeing for over a decade. While he was a good value based upon his draft day cost (he was likely dropped in many leagues only to become a tremendous waiver-wire grab), Delgado still was below his career marks in BB/K (0.58 in 2008 compared to 0.64 for his career), OBP (.353 to .383), SLG (.518 to .546) and obviously OPS (.871 to .930). He also produced his third straight season below .300 in BABIP (he was at .284 in '08 well below his career .309 mark), as it is clear that he can now be pitched to. Delgado was quite the find in 2008, but he is a questionable play to repeat that performance in 2009.

Youngster to Watch in '09 - Daniel Murphy .313-2-17-24-0 in 131 AB

With the Mets struggling to find healthy bats to fill the outfield on a daily basis as the season wore on, the club turned to Murphy, their 13th round selection in 2006. Murphy hit .285-11-78 in 502 AB at High-A ball in 2007 before spending most of his 2008 campaign at Double-A Binghamton, where he hit .308-13-67 in 357 AB before finally ending up with the Mets. Murphy owns a strong approach at the plate that produced a 1.10 BB/K mark in college and a 0.81 mark in the minors, and while that number regressed a bit in 2008 with the Mets to 0.64, he still has a solid working knowledge of the strike zone that should help him to overcome a lack of power. The lefty swinging third baseman has broadened his game to include the ability to play the outfield, something that was obviously needed given the presence of David Wright. With Moises Alou always injured and flat out old, and Ryan Church still somewhat unproven, it would appear the only player standing between Murphy and some substantial playing time at the moment is Endy Chavez, who is a nice defensive player but certainly nothing more than a spare part, meaning Murphy could start '09 in a bench role with the Mets.

PITCHERS

Fantasy Flop - The Bullpen
28-28, 4.27 ERA, 1.40 WHIP with 43 saves and 28 blown saves

We could have gone with Pedro Martinez (5-6, 5.61 ERA, 1.57 WHIP), but after throwing 28 innings in 2007, he shouldn't have been looked at as anything more than an extremely long shot to be productive. We could have also said Billy Wagner, who was limited to just 27 saves due to an elbow injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery, but we had to cut the guy some slack since he posted a 2.30 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. Ultimately, we pulled the extreme move here of not calling out one player but the entire bullpen unit that produced a sickly 59.7% conversion rate on saves. Scott Schoeneweis blew four of five save chances and had a 4.66 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP after the All-Star break. Joe Smith posted solid numbers overall (3.55 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), but he blew all three of his save chances. Hell, even Luis Ayala, who ended up taking over for Wagner and racked up nine saves, produced a 5.50 ERA and a .307 BAA with the Mets. And don't get us started on Aaron Heilman, everyone's favorite whipping boy, who blew five of eight save chances while losing eight games thanks to a 5.21 career ERA and a 1.59 WHIP. He struck out 80 batters in 76 innings, so the stuff if still strong, though 46 walks completely torpedoed his season (5.45 BB/9). All told, this unit likely cost the Mets a postseason birth, and they pretty much all deserve a big, fat raspberry for this effort.

Fantasy Find - Mike Pelfrey 13-11, 3.72 ERA, 110 K, 1.36 WHIP

Pelfrey was on the bubble for a spot in the starting rotation at the outset of the year thanks to his miserable 2007 performance (3-8, 5.57 ERA, 1.71 WHIP). When he started off slowly this season (2-6, 4.98 ERA, 1.70 WHIP), pretty much everyone but the desperate bailed on him. However, in his darkest hour, Pelfrey rebounded, and in fact he was the team's second best starter down the stretch behind Johan Santana, as he went 11-5 with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. His effort was truly pretty astounding for a guy with some limitations on the hill. The biggest limitation Pelfrey faces is that he simply doesn't strike anyone out (4.93 K/9), leading to a poor 1.72 K/BB ratio. Now he gets away with this because he is an extreme groundball pitcher (1.68 G/F rate), but it's impossible to predict just when those groundballs will end up in a fielder's glove (for the most part they did at a normal rate in 2008 if you judge this by his BABIP mark of .302). The more balls that are put into play, the more variances we can see in a pitcher's performance, so it becomes difficult to predict future performance. As long as Pelfrey is able to keep the ball down and avoid the long ball, he should be OK (he had a 0.54 HR/9 mark), and he clearly showed what he could do when on a roll as the season wore on.

Youngster to Watch in '09 - Joe Smith 6-3, 3.55 ERA, 52 K, 1.29 WHIP in 63.1 IP

Smith, the team's third-round selection in 2006, features a sharp breaking slider as his out pitch, which makes him highly effective despite a fastball that usually hovers around the 89 MPH mark. As a result, he presented a solid 7.39 K/9 mark in 2008, which helped to produce those six wins and the solid ratios. Smith also held batters to a .222 batting average, thanks in part to a .271 BABIP mark, though he needed that performance to keep his efforts in check this season because of far too many walks (4.41 BB/9). Since common sense tells us that batters will somewhat catch up with Smith in '09, it is imperative that he curtails the free passes if he hopes to once again operate as a solid arm out of the bullpen. Given the fact that the bullpen is completely unsettled, it is unclear just what role that Smith will fill in 2009, though it wouldn't be a stretch to think that he could end up as the team's main setup man if the Mets finally move on from Aaron Heilman. Smith's value will almost certainly be limited to NL-only leagues, but he certainly has a chance to be an effective weapon in that scenario with some improved control.