Blogs

Year in Review – Houston Astros

By Ray Flowers
October 31, 2008 4:05pm CDT

We will be taking a look around all 30 major league teams and see which players and pitchers failed, which excelled and which youngsters you might want to keep in mind as you begin to prepare for your 2009 Fantasy Baseball draft.


HITTERS
Fantasy Flop - Miguel Tejada
.283-13-66-92-7 in 632 AB

J.R. Towles (see below) should be an easy choice here as he was an utter bust-o-rama in 2008, but really, the failures of Miguel Tejada were much more acute given his track record of excellence and cost on draft day. Here are the data points that allow us to reach the conclusion that Tejada was a flop in 2008.

(1) Tejada hit 13 home runs, his lowest mark ever in a season of over 500 AB.
(2) Tejada had 66 RBI, his lowest mark ever in a season of over 500 AB.
(3) Tejada hit .283, his lowest mark since 2003.
(4) Tejada posted a .314 OBP, his lowest mark ever in a season of over 500 AB.
(5) Tejada posted a .415 SLG, his lowest mark ever in a season of over 500 AB.
(6) Tejada posted a K/BB mark of 0.33, his lowest mark ever in a season of over 500 AB.

Add that all up and it is crystal clear just how easy it is to list Tejada as a total flop in '08.

Fantasy Find - Geoff Blum
.240-14-53-36-1 in 325 AB

Blum was a nice weapon to deploy in NL-only leagues given that he qualified at third base and second base this past season, and possibly shortstop as well (he played 12 games there in 2007). Besides the position flexibility, Blum also performed decently at the plate, setting career bests in home runs and RBI, as well as producing an OPS (.705) that was at its highest since 2002. Should anyone expect the power to continue? The simple answer is no. Blum had a HR/F ratio of 11.6 percent last year, this after five-straight seasons with a mark under 8.0 percent, so he likely just got a bit lucky this year. However, that "luck" did not extend to his batting average, as his BABIP mark dipped to .249, .030 points below his career mark. Blum also floundered against left-handers, with a .229 average and zero home runs against them while going deep 14 times in 277 AB against righties. In certain fill-in type situations Blum is a nice play, but don't expect him to suddenly morph into a player who is fantasy relevant in anything other than NL-only leagues.

Youngster to Watch in '09 - J.R. Towles
.137-4-16-10-0 in 146 AB

Towles hit .375 in 40 AB in 2007, raising the bar to levels that simply couldn't jive with reality (he was drafted as a starting catcher in many mixed leagues in '08). Not only did Towles fail to produce decent numbers, he failed to even resemble a major league hitter. Towles hit .197 in April and followed that up with a .094 mark in May that led to his demotion to the minors. The good news is that Towles was able to find his stroke at Triple-A, where he managed to hit .304-7-28 with a .870 OPS in 168 AB, and he now owns a .300/.390/.864 career line in the minors in almost 1,100 AB. However, as we have detailed, he hasn't been able to even remotely approximate that production at the major league level. In addition, GM Ed Wade came out in early October and said that he wasn't comfortable with Towles heading into next season as the club's starter, so he will almost certainly begin the year in a support role as he tries to prove his worth. Towles still has the talent to be a valuable fantasy performer, but whether he will be given that chance, or if he can even take advantage of the opportunity if it is presented, is up in the air.


PITCHERS

Fantasy Flop - Shawn Chacon
2-3, 5.04 ERA, 53 K, 1.51 WHIP in 85.2 IP

Disgraceful. This guy isn't just a fantasy flop; he is a flop in his professional life. His ego his huge, his production is meager, and his ability to control his emotions is non-existent given his battle royale with Astros GM Ed Wade. If you bought into the hype with Chacon after a 3.94 ERA in 2007 and a promised spot in the Astros rotation in '08, shame on you. The guy is just awful (are you sensing a theme here?). Chacon owns a 4.99 career ERA and a 1.51 WHIP, which when coupled with a 1.30 K/BB mark clearly warns "danger, the bridge is out, turn around before the point of no return." Heed that advice.

Fantasy Find - Wandy Rodriguez
9-7, 3.54 ERA, 131 K, 1.31 WHIP in 137.1 IP

With very little fanfare, Wandy has won at least nine games in four-straight seasons, and though that doesn't sound particularly impressive, he is one of just nine left-handed pitchers that can make that claim. In addition, Rodriguez's 8.59 K/9 mark was fifth amongst all left-handed pitchers who hurled at least 130 innings. In addition to that career-best mark, Wandy also walked the fewest batters of his four-year career (2.88 BB/9), leading to the best mark he has produced for the Astros. Wandy still has his fair share of struggles on the road (4.34 ERA, 1.46 WHIP), but the guy was pretty much money when he is on the hill in Houston (2.99 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9.07 K/9). There are also a couple of reasons for optimism. First, Rodriguez allowed hits at a rate of a .323 BABIP mark, and chances are that number will regress next season to his career .311 mark, if not slightly better. Second, last year was the first time that he allowed less than a home run per nine innings (0.96), thanks to a HR/F mark that has gone down each of the past three seasons (it was 9.6 percent in 2008). Third, he was extremely consistent in 2008, despite dealing with injury, as he posted virtually identical numbers before the All-Star break (3.48 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 2.83 K/BB) and after (3.61 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 3.14 K/BB). So with a little luck and some health in 2009, Rodriguez could end up producing some big numbers for the Astros.

Youngster to Watch in '09 - Felipe Paulino
Minors: 0.2 innings at Triple-A

Paulino missed the 2008 season due to multiple issues with his arm (pinched nerve, elbow tightness, shoulder tendonitis, bursitis etc.), but the good news is that it has been deemed a situation in which he can avoid the scalpel. So why do we mention him here? Well, first off, the Astros simply don't have too many options on the hill that would be able to rightly fit into this category. Second, the kid has tons of potential, as he was ranked the Astros' second-best minor league prospect according to Baseball America. However, the injures are a huge concern, as is the fact that his minor league numbers are merely average (21-24, 4.28 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and a 8.46 K/9 in 351.2 IP). Obviously, counting on any type of production in 2009 is a huge risk here and one that likely isn't worth taking in any league until the guy proves that he is fully healthy.