We will be taking a look at all 30 major league teams to see which hitters and pitchers failed, which excelled, and which youngsters you might want to keep in mind as you begin to prepare for your 2009 fantasy baseball draft.
HITTERS
Fantasy Flop -
Luke Scott
.257-23-65-67-2 (AVG-HR-RBI-R-SB)
There wasn't much to chose from amongst healthy Orioles players, so Scott ends up being selected for this category despite the fact that he reached career-bests in home runs and RBI. So, how is he listed as a flop? Well, given that he received 106 more at-bats than he ever had, it's not surprising that he emerged with the best power numbers of his career. In truth, his HR/FB ratio was a career-low at 14.0 percent, so he needed every one of those at-bats to post numbers that appear to be solid until placed within the context of an expanded opportunity. In addition, his batting average only improved by .002 points from 2007 though he still hit below his career mark of .266. Scott also produced the worst walk rate of his career (10.0 percent) leading to the poorest BB/K mark he has offered at 0.52. He also presented the worst OBP of his four year career (.336) with the worst SLG (.472) and OPS (.807) in three years. The bottom line is that if not for all the extra at-bats, this would have been one poor season.
Fantasy Find -
Aubrey Huff
.304-32-108-96-4 in 598 AB
Melvin Mora started slowly, but thanks to an amazing second half (.376-12-56-33 in 48 games) he produced his best overall season since 2004 (.285-23-104-77-3). He was an afterthought on draft day and returned a tremendous value on the minimal initial investment, but he was merely the second-best find on the Orioles' club.
Aubrey Huff returned to prominence in a huge way in '08, producing his best season since 2003. He too was an afterthought on draft day given the fact that he was coming off a third straight season of down performance in what could be argued was the worst full season of his big league career (.280-15-72-68). All Huff did after that effort was go out and have such a tremendous effort that he ended up as the 30th most valuable player in 2008 based on the
2008 Player Rater Tool. As great as Mora was, Huff bettered him in all five fantasy categories and also qualified at both corner infield slots, as he too finished strong, hitting .332-14-49 over his last 64 games.
Youngster to Watch in '09 -
Matt Wieters
Minors: .355-27-91-89-2 in 437 AB
The strapping 6-foot-4 catcher can do no wrong with the bat in his hands. Named the Orioles' top prospect and the 12th best in all of baseball by Baseball America heading into 2009, Wieters went out and posted a scintillating season, split between 69 games at High-A and 61 at Double-A, that resulted in him being named Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year in 2008. A switch-hitter blessed with power from both sides of the plate, Wieters walked more times (82) than he struck out (76) in 2008, which helped him post an OBP (.454) that was nearly .100 points better than his batting average, while posting a fantastic 1.053 OPS. The only real question regarding Wieters is will he open the year behind the plate for the Orioles or will the club continue to run
Ramon Hernandez out there? If Wieters picks up a starting gig he could easily duplicate the rookie efforts of
Geovany Soto this past season (.285-22-86).
PITCHERS
Fantasy Flop -
Daniel Cabrera
8-10, 5.25 ERA, 95 K, 1.61 WHIP in 180 IP
At 6-foot-9 and 270 lbs and possessing filthy stuff that includes a 95 mph fastball with a sharp-breaking slider, Cabrera is the perpetual potential breakout star. We can finally put those hopes to rest after a simply pathetic 2008 campaign that saw him not only fail to breakout but actually witnessed a substantial regression in his performance. (1) Cabrera hurled only 180 innings a year after tossing 204.1. (2) Cabrera won a career-low eight games. (3) Batters hit a career-high .286 off of Cabrera. (4) His 1.61 WHIP was a career-worst. (5) His K total regressed from and average of 160 in 2005-07 to just 95 in 2008. That's right, his K/9 mark has regressed the past two years from a stellar 9.55, to a solid 7.31, to a terrible 4.75, thanks in no small part to an average fastball speed of 92.6 mph, continuing a three-year trend of a decline in the speed of his tosses (his fastball averaged 96.2 mph in 2005). (6) His awful K/BB ratio, in the 1.50's in 2006-07, regressed to a comical 1.06 in 2008. The bottom line with Cabrera is that he is just plan awful and no longer merits draft day attention in mixed leagues since his K-rate this past season was nearly one full batter less per nine innings than
Jamie Moyer (5.64).
Fantasy Find -
George Sherrill
3-5, 4.72 ERA, 58 K, 1.50 WHIP with 31 SV in 53.1 IP
It might be hard to remember back to March, but way back then Sherrill was being drafted somewhere around the 225th overall pick in mixed leagues as something like the 30th selected relief pitcher in the game. Flash forward to October and his 31 saves ranked him 12th in that category. Certainly his ratios were below average, but if you paid for saves on draft day you got them in spades. Sherrill was on pace to a have a great season with 29 saves and a decent 4.08 ERA at the All-Star break, but his second half turned ugly, as an injury to his shoulder helped lead to him an extremely poor finish that included a 6.59 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP over his last 14 appearances. Again, in total the numbers were merely OK, but Sherrill delivered the goods when it was far from certain that he would, with more saves than
Trevor Hoffman (30),
Bobby Jenks (30) and
Billy Wagner (27), to name but a few.
Youngster to Watch in '09 -
Chris Tillman
Minors: 11-4, 3.18 ERA, 154 K, 1.33 WHIP in 135.2 IP
Tillman began the year as the third-ranked prospect in the Mariners organization according to Baseball America before he was traded east to the Orioles as part of the bounty that Baltimore picked up for
Erik Bedard. Tillman was the Mariners' Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2007 after a season of 139 K in 135.2 IP, though the tall righty has walked too many batters in his minor league career (4.35 BB/9). Flash forward to 2008 and Tillman improved across the board in dominating hitters at the Double-A level with the numbers you see listed above (though his BB/9 mark was still far too high at 4.31). He is just 20-years-old, so it seems unlikely that he will open 2009 with the big league club, but if he opens the year on fire against Triple-A hitters like he ended this year in Double-A he could easily be a force by mid-season for a team in desperate need of someone to step up in the starting rotation besides
Jeremy Guthrie.
