Blogs

5 Questions Owners Should Be Asking (But Aren’t)

By Bryan Douglass
October 25, 2008 11:35am CDT

The week has passed and the magnificent Fanball staff has once again filled your noggin with knowledge for use in the week ahead. We have entered the meaty weeks of the season where wins make the difference between playoff contender and late season pretender, and the need to look for the slightest of edge against the competition is as demanding as ever.
With that in mind, it would be wise to look beyond the potential of the individual and instead focus on those peripheral contributors that provide beneficial work environments.
Here are five questions that do just that, representing debates and dilemmas the casual fan might overlook in spite of the insight the answers can provide into the potential of those players that will fill your fantasy roster.

1. Is the normally-elite Denver offensive line failing?

With three losses racked over the Broncos last four games, all but one showing the over-seasoned Michael Pittman as the leading rusher, one has to wonder if the offensive line in Denver is living up to expectation. This team always ranks among the top producers of rushing yards in the league, posting multiple backs worthy of fantasy consideration over recent campaigns.

This season, they are… average, evidenced by the ranking of 13th in the NFL with 118.3 rushing yards per game, owning just five rushing touchdowns. While it is fair to note coach Mike Shanahan has moved to put more balls in the hands of quarterback Jay Cutler (trailing just Drew Brees as the top man for pass attempts this season), it has been the failures of the rushing attack and the unnecessary pressure put on the young passer that has led to mistakes. The Broncos rank dead last in the NFL with a -9 Give/Take ratio, also suggesting the line is struggling to perform.

However, for those that watch the game, there are questions that range far from the turnovers and simple suggestions put forth by numbers. Keep in mind the Broncos have allowed just five sacks this season, a feat made much more astounding in the perspective of Cutler’s outrageous number of throws. The kid is averaging nearly 7.3 yards per attempt and has a whopping 13 passing touchdowns, and the line has been outstanding in pass protection. Rookies at left tackle (Ryan Clady) and fullback (Peyton Hillis) are shining bright while the decision to sign veteran center Casey Wiegmann has given this the team a leader despite the continued health issues for Tom Nalen. Even the loss of Erik Pears at tackle should be a problem as a commodity that had showcased great progress this season, but Ryan Harris appears to be ready to make a stand and is playing surprisingly well thus far.

This line is just fine… it is the coach that is to blame. Why Michael Pittman is earning so many more carries than more sure-handed options defies explanation, and the lack of faith in the run has this line inside their own heads. Those failures may not shine through against Miami next week Joey Porter working as the only true threat from that Miami defensive front (much more the force as a pass rusher where the Broncos can keep him in check), but they will certainly be a factor when the Broncos hit the fantasy playoffs and face stout defensive competition from Carolina, Buffalo, and the Chargers.


2. Can the Eagles overcome the loss of Shawn Andrews?

Those fans in Philly may have their eyes on the prize in baseball, but the Eagles are facing what looks to be one of the most competitive matchups of the week, welcoming the surging Atlanta Falcons to Lincoln Financial to do battle against one of the more balanced offenses in the league. If the Eagles fail to show up on defense, it will be Brian Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter who are asked to carry the load, attempting to win the fight for time of possession and letting your offense work as your catalyst for the win.

However, news that left guard Shawn Andrews will miss at least six weeks following surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back has put the entire outlook in question. Andrews has been known to have back issues dating all the way back to his prep star days, and when the injury was first suffered he failed to get it corrected surgically, instead choosing rest and natural regeneration. He played through an outstanding Arkansas Razorback career without any issues, yet now he has suffered from that same injury once again and the rushing attack for Philly is likely to suffer.

Not that Andrews is a stranger to the sideline. He missed the first part of the season due to back spasms after missing most of training camp, forcing Max Jean-Gilles into the starting role flanked by Jon Runyan. Runyan has helped Jean-Gilles fill the void and coach Andy Reid has praised Jean-Gilles in interviews thus far, but the numbers suggest their work in support of the run is suffering. Philly is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry over the course of the season, averaging 85.8 yards per game (good for 29th in the league)… not that they’ve been working hard at it, realizing the right side was vulnerable and giving their dynamic duo just 140 carries thus far (30th in the NFL). However, those that suffer in leagues that fail to reward points per reception find backs are muted in value as they instantly become targets in the short-range passing game rather than enjoying their talents as rushers.

If Andrews were in, you could bet Westbrook (returning from injury) and Buckhalter (showcasing while Westy has been out) would get 15+ carries each, and the Eagles could reasonably wager that this could lead to success.

Without Andrews, you are going to put the ball back in Donovan’s hands once again, making the quarterback and the various wide receivers the best play for your fantasy dollar. That fits nicely with Atlanta’s misgivings, ranked 26th in pass defense.


3. Will Marvel Smith miss Sunday’s matchup with the Giants?

This game promises to be one of the more entertaining offerings of the week, as two of the best defenses in the league match up to put in work in front of the Pittsburgh faithful. Both teams rank among the top five in the NFL for total defense this season, putting an overbearing spotlight on the lack of health the Steelers are enduring on offense.

Two of the team’s best offensive weapons, receiver Santonio Holmes and back Willie Parker, are likely to miss this game, leaving backups and question marks as the targets of choice for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger this Sunday. However, more importantly may be the potential loss of left tackle Marvel Smith, suffering from back spasms and listed as questionable for the week ahead.

Smith’s backup, Tony Hills, is young and untested, having just a limited list of snaps over the first five weeks of the season. The failures of both he and Smith have been highlighted thus far this season when working against top pass rushers, giving up two sacks to Mario Williams in Week 1, sacks to both Trent Cole and Juqua Parker on a day when the Eagles tallied a whopping nine sacks in Week 3, and two more sacks the following week against Bart Scott and Terrell Suggs.

Now they are coming off the bye, Smith has had two weeks to recover, and is still listed as questionable. That suggests that, at best, he will be limited and the Pittsburgh offense (namely their passer) may suffer once again, facing the team with the 2nd-most sacks this season (trailing the Steelers by just four).


4. Will the coaching change in San Fran bring an improved offense?

Simple answer: No.

Give Mike Singletary credit, as the former Chicago legend is as intense as any player in that locker room. He was given this opportunity at the behest of recently-fired Mike Nolan, suggesting the team would stay onboard with the voice of the leader if the reins were handed to the Hall of Fame linebacker. He has interviewed for several jobs before and this seems like a natural step of evolution for a franchise in need of some sign of movement.

However, the coach can’t change the talent on the field, at least not without a miracle, at this time of the season… and the Niners have some of the most concerning issues on the offensive line that you will find in the league this season.

The continued effort that is the Joe Staley project continues to be a work in progress, marked by the league-worst mark or 29 sack surrendered, many of them coming against the young left tackle. The rushing appears to be worthy of praise, averaging 4.4 yards per carry, but one must wonder if back Frank Gore doesn’t deserve the brunt of that recognition. The Niners have just five rushing touchdowns on the season while the seven lost fumbles shows the opposing defense is cracking the line and putting hits in the backfield.

And it’s not just Staley… the decision to go with Barry Sims over Jonas Jennings at right tackle is also a move to build for tomorrow (a surprising choice by Nolan under the circumstances). Singletary may find some sense of relief there, but that will provide only a band-aid to a situation more closely resembling a gapping laceration. Center Eric Heitmann may be the only reasonable contributor on that line, and he has too many problems around him to compensate for those shortcomings.

If anything, you can look for Singletary to experiment and attempt to progress the full depth of the roster, putting less damage on all involved. That’s not good news for any fantasy owner with any of the San Fran numbers on their roster.


5. Can the Colts provide adequate protection versus the Titans?

This may rank as the most intriguing and alluring matchup this week, both for the casual football fan as well as the most unabashed fantasy addict on the planet. The Colts carry more offensive weapons (and fantasy commodities) than the bulk of the NFC West combined, and they will be facing the team that has provided more fantasy sleepers than any other franchise on the NFL map.

However, both teams are struggling to fulfill the vast expectations those players should demand, ranked 20th and 21st in total offense, respectively.

For the Colts, the fantasy implications loom much larger. The team is absolutely bloated with offensive firepower, yet none are emerging as the forces of dominance.

You will find 20 quarterbacks listed ahead of Peyton Manning on the NFL’s ranking of quarterback ratings thus far, a list that includes Matt Schaub, one player that should be considered a rookie (Matt Cassel), several that should be earning AARP benefits (Kurt Warner, Chad Pennington, Jeff Garcia, Brett Favre), a kid from Stanford (Trent Edwards), a hurler from Eastern Illinois (Tony Romo), another from Vanderbilt (Jay Cutler) – all considered absolute floor mats in terms of college football greatness - and even his own brother.

No player may be disappointing at the same level as running back Joseph Addai. He fails to make the entire first page of the stat listings for running backs this season, easily surpassed in fantasy value by players such as rookie Matt Forte, committee leader Brandon Jacobs, injury-plagued Ryan Grant, cigarette smoking Julius Jones, rookie horse jockey Steve Slaton, pariah Larry Johnson, convalescing Edgerrin James, fumble in waiting Michael Pittman, buffet champion LenDale White, return specialist Reggie Bush, fullback Le’Ron McClain, underutilized Felix Jones, consummately injured Willie Parker, another rookie in Kevin Smith (and he plays in Detroit, the short-bus franchise of the NFL),and rookie Chris Johnson, his opposition in comparison this week

It defies explanation.

The source of woe has to be the offensive line. This unit has allowed just nine sacks this season (and that has been bolstered by the wise man behind center and his ability to dump the football), but there is no push for the rushing attack as the guards are simply not getting the job done.

Injuries have been a problem, the departure of Jake Scott (possibly one of the most underrated losses of the offseason) has been a problem, and the resulting mix of chemistry and starting jobs has put them all in question. Charlie Johnson was expected to share time at right guard but has been working at left tackle. Daniel Federkeil was not expected to be a factor at right guard but is now in play as Jamey Richard is failing. The entire lack of experience and ability is in full focus throughout as a result. Add the troubles for left tackle Tony Ugoh, who is not even close to approaching the tremendous potential he showed as a rookie, and you have a line that was, over the bulk of Manning’s career, ranked as one of the top units in the league now falling as one of the worst.

Now, even the blessings of quick recovery for center Jeff Saturday can’t save the day, and the league’s most balanced defense, led by the most feared defensive tackle in football (Albert Haynesworth), lays in wait in Nashville.

It would seem the answer to the question, at least for this week, is likely to be a resounding “no.”