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Fantasy Hoops: Eastern Conference Report

By Rick Morris
May 6, 2008 12:24pm CDT

Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Having been dispatched by the Cavs the two previous springs, Washington decided that this year they had nothing to lose and would indeed try to "step on Superman's cape." The outcome of the series revealed their latest "strategy" to be a dismal failure, but it wasn't as though Lebron James exceeded his regular-season totals wildly in any column except rebounding (9.5 RPG, up from 7.9 RPG during the season). Then again, even rough statistical parity with the league's best all-around numbers in 2007-08 is nothing to sneeze at, so LBJ fantasy owners are doubtlessly satisfied with his accomplishments even if they do represent, in all likelihood, a ceiling inasmuch as the stiffness of competition will go up dramatically from here.

With James' production levels more or less a given, if Cleveland is earn a second consecutive trip the Conference Finals, the two most instrumental players might well be Daniel Gibson (11.8 PPG in the opening round) and Wally Szczerbiak (10.8 PPG in the playoffs thus far). The Cavs' chances to pull the big upset against Boston will rise or fall on their ability to hit the outside shot consistently. Gibson emerged during last year's playoffs as a critical "X Factor" for this team and seemed well on his way to a breakout season with a dominating performance in the NBA Rookies/Sophomores Game and a near-miss at the 3-Point competition the same weekend before being hobbled with a leg injury down the stretch. He hit some big threes in the opening round and the team will need much more of the same to keep Boston's defense honest.

For Szczerbiak, who was mired in what he called the worst shooting slump of his career for the majority of the time since he came over from Seattle, the recovery of his shooting touch in the first round came not a moment too soon. Wally and "Boobie" will not lack for shooting opportunities in the next round, and if they can each somehow average around 15 PPG against the Celts, the Cavs on your roto team may actually be playing into June. Sasha Pavlovic is healthy again, but may be the odd man out right now as Mike Brown has achieved a rare level of balance with this rotation and may be reluctant to tempt fate by adding any extra elements to the mix.

In a sign that he is earning as much respect as any point guard in the Lebron era with the Cavs (faint praise though that may be), Delonte West is being trusted more and more as a primary playmaker and saw his first round assist total rise to 5.0 APG (up from 3.8 APG during the regular season). Due to looking increasingly lost with each possession, Anderson Varejao is seeing his offensive opportunities wither dramatically (3.2 PPG against Washington, down from 6.7 PPG during the season). For Boston, the extremely fortuitous non-suspension of Kevin Garnett paid dividends for his owners, as his scoring numbers against Atlanta (21.5 PPG) were certainly much more "Wolve-like." Conversely, Paul Pierce's 17.3 PPG represented a drop of 2.3 PPG from his modest (by Pierce standards) regular season scoring. With the gargantuan task of helping to defend Lebron James ahead of him, this round would not be a good time to expect a bounce-back in that area. Of the "Big Three," Ray Allen was the steadiest scorer from the regular season (17.4 PPG) into the playoffs (17.7 PPG). Rajon Rando thrived in his first foray into the playoffs, contributing 7.5 APG, a total up a full 2.4 APG from the regular season. Assuming no lingering ill effects from the Game Seven Marvin Williams mugging, he appears ready for an excellent Round Two series. Given his extensive playoff pedigree, look for Sam Cassell to score in excess of the 6.5 PPG he posted in the first round.


Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic (playoff totals listed are through Game One of the conference semifinals)
When dealing with sample sizes of any significance, the key Pistons are easily among the league's most consistent, if statistically unexciting, players, so Rip Hamilton's playoff scoring total of 19.3 PPG (up a full 2.0 PPG from the regular season) is most noteworthy in this context. Even before Monday night's 17-point total, Tayshaun Prince was also trending up a bit for the playoffs with 15.7 PPG (up from 13.2 PPG in 2007-08). Notwithstanding the fact that his 5.4 RPG in the playoffs are up exactly half a board over his numbers in the full campaign, his 10 rebounds in Monday's game are probably an outlier.

Thus far, Jason Maxiell is living up to his reputation as an energy player and his 6.9 RPG are up 1.6 RPG over his regular season tally. However, anyone thinking that Jarvis Hayes might be a nice dark horse candidate for wing scoring off the bench has to be disappointed thus far: his 2.4 PPG is just over a third of his regular season average. Meanwhile, Dwight Howard owners could have been forgiven for thinking that there was no extra gear for their star on the boards after notching 14.2 RPG in the regular season. They'd have been wrong, though: he's achieved an eye-popping 16.5 RPG in the playoffs.

Amazingly, though, teammate Rashard Lewis has seen an even greater increase in his use of Windex through this postseason, pulling down 8.2 RPG, up an incredible 2.8 RPG from the regular season! At 17.8 PPG (down 1.7 PPG from the full season), Hedo Turkoglu has hardly turned back into a pumpkin after his big breakthrough year, but he has joined his teammates in pumping up his rebounding totals (7.7 RPG, up from 5.7 RPG this year). Jameer Nelson has more than made up for Hedo's slight offensive fallout, posting one of the biggest gains of any player in the postseason (15.5 PPG, up from 10.9 PPG this season). Unsurprisingly, though, his assist total is off a tad (4.8 APG, down from 5.6 APG during the regular season).

Maurice Evans is certainly the weak link offensively in Orlando's starting lineup and if the team is to advance past Detroit, he cannot continue to lag behind his regular season scoring (7.7 PPG, down 1.2 PPG from the regular season). His 13 points in Game Two were at least a nod in the right direction and it's no surprise that the team was much more competitive when he emerged from liability status (four points in Game One).