By Rick Morris
April 16, 2008 12:17pm CDT

This week's column addresses the first round and beyond for the Eastern Conference Playoffs. As usual, all stats referenced are over the last 10 games unless otherwise noted.


Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks:

It's been amply chronicled, both here and elsewhere, that Kevin Garnett has been a fairly major disappointment to his fantasy owners this year, all while his reputation as a winner has actually climbed to new heights. Consider these numbers for the 2006-07 season: 22.4 PPG, 12.8 RPG, 4.1 APG. Now examine his numbers for this year: 19.0 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 3.5 APG. His recent numbers aren't any great shakes compared to last year or his usual standards, either: 20.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.6 APG. And yet, with all of that said, he remains quite possibly the #1 roto option of any player heading into this year's playoffs? Why? Because his numbers, while not at the level of the ones that would put him as a perennial Top 5 pick in fantasy drafts, would still be at least borderline first-round worthy for a full-season league. Plus, he's the top option on his team and therein lies the rub: with a crowded Western Conference containing six or seven teams that could legitimately be considered contenders for the Finals, Garnett's Celtics and the Pistons are the only real threats to come out of the East (barring an end to the collapse of defending conference champion Cleveland) and Boston has home court. So, best option on the best team plus numbers still better than most equals a fantasy playoff status that belies his falloff in the regular season. While Paul Pierce is also someone who should go high in playoff fantasy drafts, his recent numbers are a bit of a cause for concern: 17.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG and 4.2 APG, down from 19.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG and 4.6 APG this year. The Celtics won the season series between the teams, 3-0, so anyone thinking of drafting Hawks notwithstanding Boston's overall imposing nature has one more negative factor to consider. Nevertheless, some Hawks will be worth consideration and unsurprisingly, Joe Johnson stands at the head of that list. His production of late has far exceeded the sum of what has been an excellent season (25.8 PPG and 7.9 APG, up from 22.0 PPG and 5.8 APG).

Detroit Pistons vs. Philadelphia 76'ers:

This is the Eastern series with the least oomph from a fantasy standpoint. Key players on the Pistons are steady but certainly not sensational statistically, while the Sixers are big underdogs and don't carry much value because of that fact. While Philly was probably hoping for what looked like an easier matchup against an also-untested Orlando squad, they at least can take solace from having split the season series 2-2 against Detroit. That note might make their ace Andre Iguodala a bit more attractive to fantasy owners hopeful of enjoying his services beyond the first round. His recent scoring totals of 19.1 PPG and 5.5 RPG are basically in line with his year-to-date averages, but his assist tally of 6.3 APG is up from 4.8 APG over the course of the year. Actually, regardless of which player you're speaking of, "Andre Equals Distribution" in Philadelphia right now, as Andre Miller's 8.4 APG total is up 1.5 APG over the season-to-date numbers. Detroit's main cogs are more predictable within a certain statistical range than core players on any other playoff team, but Chauncey Billups (15.6 PPG) and Rip Hamilton (15.7 PPG) are both off of their year-to-date scoring numbers.

Orlando Magic vs. Toronto Raptors:

This is a matchup of two teams who each have a dominant young anchor in the frontcourt. Orlando has home court advantage in the series, had a significantly better regular-season record and won two of the three games the teams played in the regular season, so Dwight Howard's insane breakout year is not the only reason to rate him ahead of Chris Bosh for fantasy consideration. Howard entered this season as one of the highest-rated roto options based on the progression he had shown through a 2006-07 campaign that saw him tally 17.6 PPG and 12.3 RPG. Based both on the rate of improvement he had shown throughout his career to that point and his pedigree as a #1 overall draft pick, Orlando's acquisition of Rashard Lewis as a legitimate complementary piece portended vast improvement for Howard. Surprisingly, Hedo Turkoglu, not Lewis, ended up being the sidekick that loosened up defenses for Howard, but the bottom line was still the same, as Howard notched 20.9 PPG and 14.3 RPG this year (although both categories slid slightly to 17.6 PPG and 13.5 PPG recently). Turkoglu's mother-of-all-breakout-seasons shocked a great many as he posted numbers of 19.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG and 5.0 APG this year. Lewis has still played at a higher level than most, but like Garnett ended up sacrificing numbers for wins this year (18.3 PPG and 5.4 RPG, down from 22.4 PPG and 6.6 RPG last year). Due in part to their underdog status, the Raptors don't have any high-round postseason fantasy draft candidates outside of Bosh. Unlike Howard, he did not improve statistically this year (22.5 PPG and 8.7 RPG as opposed to 22.6 PPG and 10.7 RPG last season), but he is scoring at an improved clip lately (24.5 PPG).

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Washington Wizards:

As is so often the case in hoops (and in hockey), this 4-5 matchup in the first round is the toughest to ascertain in terms of which team is likely to win and therefore adds more value to their players in a fantasy sense. Cleveland and Washington split their four regular season games, but given the absence of Agent Zero for most of the season for the Wiz and the Cavs' radical reconstruction at the trading deadline, those games tell us nothing. The Cavs' success against Washington in the playoffs the last two years and the fact that home court will reside in Cleveland for this series are slightly more relevant. Inasmuch as the winner will likely have to go through Boston in the next round, it's important not to get carried away on the valuation of any of these players. Certainly, Cleveland's severe struggles of late are imposing a low ceiling on the team's playoff upside, so Lebron James is a tough sell as a top pick in a fantasy playoff draft notwithstanding his unmatched all-around numbers (30.0 PPG, 7.9 RPG and 7.2 APG this season). In a sign of how truly bizarre this season has been for the Cavs, they may actually be better off now that they don't have one of their starters from last year's Eastern Conference Championship team! Sasha Pavlovic struggled with injuries and inefficiency all year long prior to going down on the eve of the postseason and coach Mike Brown has likewise struggled to piece together a coherent rotation from game to game. Losing a player who regressed to the fringes of the rotation may well help the team's chances of advancement by forcing a bit more structural clarity on Brown. Washington, meanwhile, will continue their adjustment period, which commenced upon the return of Gilbert Arenas from an injury that kept him out most of the year. As the rust dissipates, he is sure to leave his 2007-08 scoring tally of 19.4 PPG in the dust. His fellow offensive juggernauts, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison, each improved their scoring numbers in his absence and are poised to exploit a Cleveland team that Brown noted has been much poorer defensively than last year.