Blogs

NFL Mock Draft

By Jonathan Lopuch
January 22, 2007 3:10pm CST

The playoffs are capturing the headlines right now, but the season is over for most teams and the time has come to begin planning for the NFL Draft. While there's still plenty of dust to settle, veterans to change addresses and draft positions to be traded, we take an early look at how the first round of the 2007 draft could unfold.

Note: The final slots for the four remaining teams have not yet been determined and a coin toss will decide whether the Browns or Buccaneers pick third.

1. Oakland Raiders
JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
Rationale: This isn't a reaction to the Sugar Bowl because nobody should have thought that Brady Quinn, who had to face a stiff LSU defense, would outshine Rusell, who got to feast on the Irish secondary. It is an acknowledgement that Al Davis tends to fall in love with physical specimens like Russell, who stands 6-5 and has a rocket for an arm.

Also Considered: Quinn was regarded as the top prospect for much of the college season and may reclaim that spot if Russell's stock cools off after further evaluation.

2. Detroit Lions
Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
Rationale: After passing on Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler last year, the Lions will find themselves in position to grab one of the top two quarterbacks of the 2007 draft class. Of course, it's always a safe bet to assume that general manager Matt Millen will screw up somehow.

Also Considered: If JaMarcus Russell falls, he would be an option, but the smart money is on them selecting Joe Thomas or trading down to stockpile picks.

*3. Cleveland Browns
Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
Rationale: Cleveland has holes to fill, but GM Phil Savage is a talent guy, and the two top talents on the board are Thomas and Calvin Johnson. If there's one area the Browns do have some talent it's at pass-catcher with Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, so Thomas makes the most sense.

Also Considered: The Browns could end up with Quinn, who is an Ohio native, but they've already got two young quarterbacks in Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson. Adrian Peterson would make sense as well, as the team is talking about how good of a special teams player Reuben Droughns is and that doesn't bode well for his prospects as a feature back. Another option could be Alan Branch to shore up the team's run defense, but there are some defensive tackles who might better fit Romeo Crennel's 3-4 that could be available later on.

*4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
Rationale: The Bucs have bigger needs along their offensive and defensive lines, but the general consensus is that head coach Jon Gruden won't be able to stop himself if the dynamic Johnson is still on the board. Plus, Joey Galloway isn't getting any younger, and Michael Clayton's sophomore slump continued through his junior season.

Also Considered: The Bucs defensive line needs a serious upgrade and Alan Branch would be a huge step in the right direction.

5. Arizona Cardinals
Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
Rationale: Defensive tackle isn't as pressing a need as other positions on that side of the ball, but Branch is an excellent prospect who is a top-five talent. It just so happens the Cardinals have a top-five pick and some depth on the line would be welcomed.

Also Considered: With Joe Thomas off the board the Cardinals may be inclined to trade down and accumulate more picks to address their many needs. They may also look at safety LaRon Landry, but that would be a very aggressive move this early.

6. Washington Redskins
Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
Rationale: Washington's defense was abysmal last year, highlighted by shoddy secondary play and no pass rush. Since it would be reaching to take Leon Hall here, and since pass-rushers are tougher to come by, Adams makes a great deal of sense.

Also Considered: It's possible Jamaal Anderson leap-frogs over Adams on some draft boards, or Adams may already be gone by this point; if that's the case, it means Thomas or Branch or maybe even Johnson slipped down the board. And don't forget that Dan Snyder loves to trade draft picks, so he wouldn't be against listening to offers when the Skins go on the clock.

7. Minnesota Vikings
LaRon Lanrdy, S, LSU
Rationale: There's been plenty of speculation that the Vikings will use this pick to find a pass-rushing defensive end. However, they've already invested recent first-round picks in ends Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James. The more pressing defensive need is at safety, as the new coaching staff isn't crazy about Darren Sharper or Dwight Smith. At last check, head coach Brad Childress was pimping the phrase "culture of accountability," not "culture of getting some action in a stairwell."

Also Considered: Trading up to get Calvin Johnson or grabbing a different wideout because the Vikes' cupboard is bare at wide receiver

8. Houston Texans
Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
Rationale: The old adage is that if you've got a lot of running backs, what you really have is no running back. And after passing on Reggie Bush last year, the Texans can't pass on Peterson… can they?

Also Considered: If Peterson is still on the board and the Texans opt for a defensive lineman like Anderson, Adams, or Branch, there may be a riot in Houston. Thomas would be the ideal pick, but odds are he won't drop this far. The Texans could also consider trading down to pick up extra selections, as they have plenty of needs that multiple first-day picks could address.

9. Miami Dolphins
Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
Rationale: The Dolphins have holes to fill all over their defensive backfield, which makes the choice of Hall an excellent one for them. He would be able to contend for a starting job immediately, and if Jason Allen steps up in his sophomore season, the Fins have the makings of a revamped secondary.

Also Considered: The Dolphins could use a pass rusher and Jamaal Anderson fits the description. Linebacker is also a concern, but no prospect is worthy of a selection here.

10. Atlanta Falcons
Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
Rationale: Atlanta's need at defensive line weighs heavily on whether they believe they can re-sign unrestricted free agents Patrick Kerney and Rod Coleman. Even if both players re-sign, nosetackle Grady Jackson is a KFC Famous Bowl away from having both knees give out due to the enormous amount of weight they've been forced to support over the years. Don't believe us? There are rumors that cornerback Jimmy Williams will move to safety, which could create an opening opposite DeAngelo Hall.

Also Considered: If LaRon Landry lasts this long, the Falcons would be wise to pounce on him. Adrian Peterson is also an option as the team is reportedly going away from the zone blocking scheme, making Warrick Dunn a possible causality.

11. San Francisco 49ers
Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, The Ohio State
Rationale: The 49ers are a team heading in the right direction and they have several young pieces already in place. One thing they are lacking, however, is a playmaking wide receiver. They have a decent No. 2 in Arnaz Battle and an emerging tight end in Vernon Davis, but Antonio Bryant simply isn't going to get the job done, especially since he is already on thin ice following a drug suspension that will cost his two games in 2007. Ginn has the potential to be a No. 1 wideout and also immediately upgrades the team's return game.

Also Considered: Dwyane Jarrett is also a possibility here as the 49ers look to improve their passing attack. A strong combine might also vault Sidney Rice into the discussion.

12. Buffalo Bills
DeMarcus "Tank" Tyler, DT, N.C. State
Rationale: Not only does he have a great nickname for a defensive tackle, he can also team up with fellow first-round pick John McCargo to improve the team's interior defense, which hasn't been the same since Pat Williams defected two seasons ago. The Bills probably need an offensive lineman more than a defensive tackle, but that is a need they could address in the subsequent rounds.

Also Considered: Trading down to pick up an offensive tackle like Levi Brown or linebacker like Lawrence Timmons would allow the Bills to address more pressing needs and receive better value.

13. St. Louis Rams
Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
Rationale: Anderson turned plenty of heads during the season with 13.5 sacks as a junior. The Rams could use a replacement for Tony Hargrove, and the combination of Anderson and Victor Adeyanju would be a promising young tandem opposite Leonard Little.

Also Considered: The Rams may head down the draft board because they could still address needs at linebacker or defensive tackle and pick up an extra pick.

14. Carolina Panthers
Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia
Rationale: Prior to the 2006 season, the Panthers were a popular Super Bowl pick. However, glaring holes at offensive line, defensive line, and linebacker, as well as a developing issue at safety were exposed throughout the year. It's no secret in Carolina that starting defensive end Mike Rucker is on his way out, and the Panthers aren't blown away by their fallback options, so Moses is a logical pick to help Julius Peppers pressure the quarterback.

Also Considered: The Panthers have to address their offensive line problem through free agency or the draft. If they chose to wait for the draft, they could put together a package to trade up for Joe Thomas or down get more picks for greater depth.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers
Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State
Rationale: Just one year removed from a Super Bowl title, the Steelers don't have a ton of glaring needs. They're getting older on the offensive line and at linebacker, and keeping a hometown talent like Posluszny around is a luxury they can likely afford.

Also Considered: Another Nittany Lion, offensive tackle Levi Brown, could also get the call here—especially if it's Russ Grimm who winds up succeeding Bill Cowher at the helm. Some mocks have suggested the Steelers take Dwayne Jarrett here, and while he'd be a complement to Santonio Holmes it seems odd the run-based Steelers would go after a wideout so early, especially after they traded up to get Holmes last year.

16. Green Bay Packers
Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
Rationale: There is plenty of speculation that the Packers will add a receiver with this pick. However, they still have high hopes for 2006 second-round pick Greg Jennings, who was having a very nice season before he sprained an ankle, and Pro Bowler Donald Driver is far from washed up. Instead, the Packers will address their ongoing secondary problems by filling a void that has existed since LeRoy Butler left Titletown.

Also Considered: Marshawn Lynch could be the choice here if the Packers fail to work out a deal with Ahman Green and don't believe Vernand Morency can be their featured back.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars
Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
Rationale: Jacksonville's defense had all kinds of injury problems up front, and about the only thing preventing the Jags D from being truly elite was a stronger pass rush. Carriker provides that, plus he fits the athletic mold of other Jack Del Rio/James Harris picks (think Matt Jones).

Also Considered: It's conceivable that USC alum Del Rio might consider Jarrett here, but the team probably hopes they can get enough production from their 2004 and 2005 first-round picks Reggie Williams and Jones that they don't need to spend yet another first-rounder at the position. Jacksonville could also look for help at linebacker here, and Florida State's Laurence Timmons would fit that bill.

18. Cincinnati Bengals
LaMarr Woodley, DE, Michigan
Rationale: Cincy needs to find a way to stop the run, and adding help along the defensive line will certainly be a step in that direction. There's also the distinct possibility that Justin Smith leaves via free agency, making this an even greater need pick.

Also Considered: The Bengals would love to see someone like Tyler, Anderson, or Moses fall to them, though Woodley is hardly "settling". And Cincy's offensive line isn't getting any younger, so they may take a long look at Levi Brown with this pick as well.

19. Tennessee Titans
Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
Rationale: It doesn't look as if Norm Chow is going anywhere for the moment, and with Vince Young settled in at quarterback it's time to find him some pass-catchers. Chow is familiar with Jarrett's work, and Jeff Fisher is a former Trojan himself.

Also Considered: Tennessee could use some help in their secondary, but unless Hall slides they can probably get better value next round. The Titans could also look at a pass-rusher if one of the aforementioned defensive ends (Anderson, Moses, or Woodley) were to slip down the board.

20. New York Giants
Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
Rationale: Yes, we just got done saying that taking corners here would be reaching, but it's such a need position for the Giants they don't have much choice.

Also Considered: There's a possibility the Giants could look to replace Tiki Barber here with the likes of Marshawn Lynch, but there should be other backs available later on Day 1 (Lorenzo Booker, for example).

21. Denver Broncos
Daymeion Hughes, CB, California
Rationale: The tragic loss of Darrent Williams has left the Broncos much thinner at in the secondary than they anticipated. Hughes will provide an immediate upgrade in talent at corner and can learn the craft from one of the best in the game, Champ Bailey.

Also Considered: The Broncos could also target fellow cornerback Marcus McCauley with this pick or look to upgrade their pass rush with Jarvis Moss.

22. Dallas Cowboys
Levi Brown, OT, Penn State
Rationale: We told you last year the Cowboys needed a safety. Unfortunately for them, they didn't trust our assessment. However, the Lone Stars will have to trade up or down if they intend to fill that hole via their first pick in the draft. The offensive line has also been problematic in recent years, so getting a monster like Brown would be a wise move.

Also Considered: A safety to complement Roy Williams would be nice, so Reggie Nelson (if he falls) or Michael Griffin are both options. Guard Justin Blalock would also give the team some youth on the offensive line.

23. Kansas City Chiefs
Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
Rationale: First-round Gamecock receivers haven't adjusted well to the NFL in recent seasons, but the Chiefs won't let the failure of Troy Williamson dissuade them from investing in Rice, who has a combination of size and speed that should make him a factor as early as his rookie season.

Also Considered: Other receivers the Chiefs will look at include both Dwayne Bowe and Anthony Gonzalez. If they chose to address their defensive line, Quinn Pitcock should catch their eye.

24. New England Patriots (from the Seahawks)
Jarvis Moss, DE/OLB, Florida
Rationale: This is the pick the Pats got in the Deion Branch deal. New England is famous for focusing on players they feel fit their system and are willing to buy into their philosophy. Moss is a pick that makes sense for them because of his ability to rush the passer out of the 3-4 base defense.

Also Considered: The Patriots could use a big target like Dwayne Bowe to team up with last year's second-round pick, Chad Jackson. Inside linebacker Patrick Willis is a productive player who would fit in the Pats' 3-4 scheme.

25. New York Jets
Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
Rationale: Running backs, unless they are elite prospects like Reggie Bush, tend to fall farther than anticipated every year because teams can get good ones later in the draft and also pick up solid veterans in free agency. This year will be no different and the Jets will benefit by picking up a guy who could be their workhorse for the foreseeable future.

Also Considered: Despite the fact his name rhymes with "touchdown maker", Chris Baker isn't the answer at tight end, so Greg Olsen and Zach Miller are possibilities. They could also look to upgrade their secondary with a cornerback like Marcus McCauley.

26. Philadelphia Eagles
Michael Griffin, S, Texas
Rationale: The Eagles will be out to fill the void that's expected to be created when safety Michael Lewis departs via free agency, as fill-in Sean Considine failed to prove he was an answer to the team's lack of depth at the position.

Also Considered: Jarvis Moss or a wide receiver if Donte' Stallworth splits via free agency.

27. New Orleans Saints
Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State
Rationale: Head coach Sean Payton did a great job of pulling Scott Fujita and Mark Simoneau off their former teams' scrap heap, but now he has a chance to fill the holes at linebacker over the long haul by adding a project such as Timmons.

Also Considered: If a cornerback slides, the Saints would be very appreciative. They could also look to upgrade their defense with a linebacker like Patrick Willis.

28. New England Patriots
Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
Rationale: Bowe is an excellent complement to Chad Jackson. He doesn't have Jackson's blazing speed (few do), but he stands almost 6-2 and displayed excellent hands in college. He is also known as a good run blocker.

Also Considered: Patrick Willis is still on the board and still makes sense for the Patriots. They could also package their two first-round picks to move up.

29. Baltimore Ravens
Patrick Willis, ILB, Mississippi
Rationale: Adalius Thomas is potentially leaving and Ray Lewis isn't getting any younger, so it may be time for the Ravens to reload at the linebacker position.

Also Considered: Baltimore also would like to get younger along the offensive line, especially if Jonathan Ogden is serious about considering retirement. However, don't expect the Ravens to take an offensive lineman unless Brown slips to them. They could also look for defensive line help, though they went that route last season.

30. San Diego Chargers
Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno St.
Rationale: The Chargers are no strangers to spending first-round picks on cornerbacks, but there is still a need in the secondary because Drayton Florence could be a free agent after next season and Antonio Cromartie still hasn't proven he can handle the starting job.

Also Considered: Receiver is also an area of need of the Chargers and they could take a look at a guy like Jeff Samardzija or Robert Meachem to go along with the developing Vincent Jackson and aging Keenan McCardell.

31. Indianapolis Colts (pick subject to change based on playoff outcome)
Buster Davis, ILB, Florida State
Rationale: It's no secret that Indy's Achilles' heel has been its linebackers, or maybe you didn't notice them giving up 177 rushing yards per game. With Cato Junes potentially a free agent, there's a definite need to add talent at the linebacker position. Davis is a bit undersized, but in Tony Dungy's scheme that doesn't usually pose a problem if you can play—and there's no question Buster can play.

Also Considered: Indy will likely consider any linebacker on the board, so if Willis or Timmons fall or somebody looks particularly good in the all-star games or at the combine they may go that route. Another option, depending on what the future has in store for Corey Simon, could be a defensive tackle like Ohio State's Quinn Pitcock. And the Colts can never have too many defensive backs, so if they aren't too picked over by this juncture they could look at Michael Griffin or Marcus McCauley.

32. Chicago Bears
Justin Blalock, G, Texas
Rationale: Starting offensive linemen Fred Miller and Reuben Brown aren't getting any younger. The big question facing the Bears in the offseason will be whether they intend to re-sign linebacker Lance Briggs, who will be an unrestricted free agent. If not, the team might shift its focus to linebacker.

Also Considered: Buster Davis would likely be the linebacker the team looks to if they need to address that position and the draft falls this way.