By Zach Chalifour
August 25, 2006 2:34pm CDT

Feature Prospect: Hunter Pence, OF, Astros
Born: April 13, 1983
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 220
Bats/Throws: R/R

Pence enjoyed a breakout season last year in his first full season of professional baseball, hitting 31 home runs between Low-A Lexington and High-A Salem. The 2004 second-rounder moved up to Double-A Corpus Christi and has hit just as well for Houston's Texas League affiliate. He currently sits three home runs off of his 2005 mark.

In 481 at-bats, the 23-year-old has put up a fine season in which he is hitting .291 with 28 home runs, 93 RBI and 16 steals. His total of 37 extra-base hits in addition to his home runs is an increase over his 26 last season. That shows that while his 2006 home run total may not surpass or even equal his mark from last season, Pence has just lost some of those home runs to other forms of extra base hits.

The most interesting statistics surrounding Pence's current season relate to his clutch hitting ability. While most players hit for a better average with runners in scoring position, as well as simply with runners on base, Pence has been a polar opposite of the typical split. His situational batting averages are the highest with no one on base (.342), while his average decreases steeply with runners on base (.247) and runners in scoring position (.230).

Pence has put up numbers that are certainly nothing to complain about, but with just slightly better hitting in scoring situations, his RBI total would be well above 100. Once he gains more experience and begins to hit better in such situations, it would be fair to expect a ten-percent increase in his batting statistics across the board.

In the long term, there is no doubt that Pence is expected to become a fixture in the Houston outfield. Whether that happens in 2008 or sooner is still to be determined, but he should make his debut in a part-time role at the very minimum in 2007 before being penciled in for a starting job the following spring.

Jay Bruce, OF, Reds
Bruce was drafted by the Reds in the first round of the 2005 draft out of a Texas high school, and the 19-year-old struggled a bit in his professional debut at the end of last summer, but he has since made adjustments and is having a fine season at Low-A Dayton. His 16 home runs may seem a bit low, but Bruce has had no problem showing his gap power with 42 doubles and five triples, and his home run production will most certainly increase as he continues to improve his swing and generate more lift on the ball. His .295 batting average is more than respectable, and Bruce has also made use of his above-average speed by swiping 19 bases in 27 tries. His only major weakness at this point has been a high strikeout count (102 in 114 games), but that is an issue that the majority of young sluggers face and can eventually improve. Bruce is a great bet to eventually become a fixture in the Reds outfield and be a perennial 25-30 home run hitter, but it won't be until 2009, at the earliest.

Tyler Clippard, P, Yankees
Clippard has been one of the hottest pitchers in the minor leagues throughout the past two months, and his recent dominance most recently featured a no-hitter for Double-A Trenton. Though he was never labeled as "untouchable" like fellow pitching prospect Philip Hughes, Clippard was another player whom the Yankees were hoping to hang on to through the trading deadline last month, especially given his recent performance. The 21-year-old Clippard has an ERA of 3.50 on the season, but has been almost unhittable after a horrible month of June - he posted a 5-0 record and 1.94 ERA in six starts in the month of July and is currently 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his first four August starts. On the year, he is now 11-10 with a 3.50 ERA and 162 strikeouts in 154.1 innings for the Thunder. Expect him to be a candidate to help fill the Yankees rotation next year if injury problems continue like they have this year, and he may have a shot at joining the 2008 rotation, assuming he isn't traded by then.

Chuck Lofgren, P, Indians
Lofgren, 20, is going to be one of the top candidates for every Minor League Pitcher of the Year award. The southpaw was a fourth-round draft pick by the Indians in the 2004 draft, and while he had a relative breakout season last year, it will be his 2006 campaign that officially puts him on the map. The California native has spent the entire season at High-A Kinston, and he is currently 15-5 through 23 starts with a 2.46 ERA and 117 strikeouts in 128 innings. With Lofgren and fellow prospect Adam Miller (who was profiled here last week) both on the way, Indians fans certainly have something to look forward to in the form of a bright future for their rotation. Lofgren owners will soon feel the same way, though he will have to show he can get the job done at the Double- and Triple-A levels as well before joining the top tier of pitching prospects.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox
Boston's first-round pick in last year's amateur draft, Ellsbury isn't as flashy as some of the power hitters who get noted strictly for a high home run total, but he has had an outstanding season in his own right. The Red Sox leadoff hitter of the future has split the season between High-A Wilmington and Double-A Portland and currently has a .308 batting average and .382 on-base percentage. The numbers are a result of his outstanding plate discipline and ability to make contract, as shown by his 42 walks and 45 strikeouts in over 400 at-bats. Ellsbury has also stolen 37 bases, though he has been somewhat inefficient in doing so since the 22-year-old has also been caught on 15 occasions. With Coco Crisp locked up through at least 2009, the Red Sox may have to consider trading Ellsbury, Crisp or Wily Mo Pena sometime down the road.


With September 1 roster expansion just around the corner, there will be upcoming special editions of On the Farm to take a look at all of the call-ups. Any prospects who are called up to the big leagues before September 1 in anticipation of the expansion will be profiled next Friday, while on the following Monday we will take a look at all of the players to have been called up during the first three days of the month.